mg420

i wonder what hendry was thinking when he watched baker lose the game yesterday by not pinch hitting for maddux and then letting him blow the lead the next inning? it would be a real crime if baker gets a 2 year extention with all the good young players the cubs have ready to contribute in the majors. i really thought that hill & jvb were sent home weeks ago as it was wuertz, ohman & novoa in the 6th, 7th & 8th for the whole month of sept. lets not forget it was baker who used hawkins to close, dempster to start & left rusch in the bullpen the 1st month + of the season. i wonder how many games difference it would have made if baker used them as hendry had said they were going to.

It's funny you say that. I'm sure Baker has suggested to Hendry that he sign Tommy John to be that lefty starter for 2006. Why get a cheap immatation? I'd be willing to take a risk on Willaimson and I think Hendry would as well. Frankly, it doesn't make much sense to pickup a guy who the team figured wouldn't be effective in 2005 unless they had future aspirations... i hope the cubs take a pass on williamson & give jvb a real shot next year. somehow dusty seemed to have forgotten about him the last 3 weeks of the season along with rich hill. imagine that..

i hope they put him in the pen to set up dempster next year. i dont think his shoulder can take starting anymore & he would be very effective for 1-2 innings.

i would love to see the phillies beat the astos out for the wildcard. i would be rooting for the phillies & the angels in that case. otherwise i guess its the padres & angels. lets hope maddux & the cubs can do their part today. either way, it should be a great playoff series (at least as good as it can be without the cubs in it!)

That's a solid plan B. Giles should be Plan A. If you can't get him, get 2 solid players of the caliber you mentioned. from what i've heard, floyd is available but wilkerson is a ? mark. he's had a very bad year but just signed a multi year contract. maybe if robinson likes patterson as much as i'e heard he does, the nats would take novoa & cp for wilkerson. no idea what the mets would want for floyd.

i would like to see the cubs trade for wilkerson to play cf & floyd for rf with murton in lf. the 06 lineup would then be: wilkerson murton lee floyd aram walker cedeno barrett

Great stuff, NA. I agree that the Cubs should not go after B.J. Ryan to be their closer. I also am convinced that a team like the Red Sox or Mets will throw gobs of money at him to be their closer so it won't even be an issue. But, that said, if the Cubs had the opportunity to sign Ryan for 5-6 million, I think they might have the financial resources to do it. With Murton and Walker coming cheap and the possibilty of resigning Nomar to an incentive laden contract, after the expense of landing Giles for RF and Lofton as a stopgap in CF, the Cubs should have some money left over. Given the choice between going after every 5th day guys like A.J. Burnett or Kevin Millwood for way more than 6 million or solidfying the bullpen with a guy who will appear in 75 games, signing a reliever like Ryan for 6 mill, starts to look a little better. i think williams will get the # 5 spot next year and hope the cubs sign rusch as the #4.

It only makes sense if you ignore some pretty strong evidence indicating he can't maintain this performance, though. wasnt there also some pretty strong evidence that dempster couldn't close games because he walked too many & didnt have enough strike outs? I don't know about that, I was supporting Dempster as closer since 2004. I compared him favorably to Isringhausen, and his transformation from an inconsistent and unimpressive starter coming off surgery to a good, but not great closer. Some people just made the general statement that he walks too many to close. You can lump me into the crowd of people who wouldn't have much faith in Lofton, but I was all for Dempster, and I don't see a correlation between the two situations. i guess my point is that its all a guessing game. why couldnt lofton have a good year next year? his game is based on speed and he doesn't seem to be slowing down much. as far as dempster, i seem to recall an article on the front page outlining why dempster was a ? mark because of his high walks & low strike out totals but he seems to have taken to closing just fine. i also remember that alot of people here were talking down about getting eckstein to play ss and laughed when the sox traded for posednick. if someone would have said at the start of the season that eckstein & scott p would outproduce nomar & cp they would have been lynched.

It only makes sense if you ignore some pretty strong evidence indicating he can't maintain this performance, though. wasnt there also some pretty strong evidence that dempster couldn't close games because he walked too many & didnt have enough strike outs?

how do those 3 compare to the cub's hill, pinto & nolasco?

great forsight on your part. the only issue i have with nomar playing of for the cubs is that he hits right handed. there is no question that murton needs to play every day in 06 and nomar wont be able to play cf imo. i would much rather see wilkerson or lofton in cf with giles or floyd in rf to go along with murton in lf.

i would take those two guys in a second. they both hit left handed to boot (doesnt wynn switch hit?) which will be a big factor next year with a mostly right handed line up. other names i have heard include floyd, gliles, lofton or even moving nomar to the of ala robin yount. the question is what would it take to get tracy?

That's the only thing in Burnett's favor. But how meaningful is it. After 2003 Wood was the one who looked healthy. They've gone back and forth with their problems. My point is neither is reliable, and nobody would sign Wood to a big extension today, there's no justification for giving Burnett that contract instead. Given the Cubs recent history with injury proned players or players recently removed from a serious injury there's no way Hendry would take a chance on Burnett. After this and last seasons, Hendry' got to be a little gun shy about such players. especially with guys like hill, pinto & nolasco (and maybe even guzman) in the wings.

if the cubs want to contend in the near future, it would be better to build on the core of lee, aram & barrett instead of trying to trade them when their value is perceived to be the highest.

some people are pretty high on milton bradley & being suspended for disciplinary reasons is only one of several negative incidents on his resume. i certainly hope they stay away from guys like these and pursue other options. all the cubs need now is another albert belle type pycho.

any chance the cubs can sign dempster to close & bj ryan to be the 2nd lefty along with ohman or is bj ryan going to want to stay a closer?

thanks Tim.

05/10 - 09/25 IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Dempster 55.3 41 12 10 25 49 1 914 4.07 7.97 0.16 1.19 1.63 what is the "PC" stat of 914 btw?

It's this kind of thinking that caused the Alfonseca trade; look at save totals, ignore peripherals. and your kind of thinking is what lead to using hawkins to close. he's got great stuff so he should be a great closer.

ryno never seemed to have a problem under the same conditions you outlined.

Consistency is overrated? A lot of guys have the "stuff" to justify a 3/24 contract. Not all of them back it up with repeatable success. Dempster's one year of success as a closer, without dominant peripherals, has justified a pretty significant 2 year deal. However, if you go to 3 years, and you spend that much per year, there are better options. Dempster at 3/24 is equivalent to Ryan at something like 4/40. Ryan is much more dominant than Dempster, and much more reliable. Wagner, same thing. I don't see those guys getting those deals, and Dempster shouldn't get anything that contends with those numbers. again, look at how consistant remmy & hawkins were before they got to chicago. granted, they were not used very well at times by baker (no suprise there) but they were not very effective compared to their history the whole time they were here. if hendry signs dempster to a 24/3 contract and he stays healthy & saves 45 games a year, it will have been a great move. if dempster gets hurt or blows up, it will have been a bad deal. if you are talking about bj ryan btw, i dont see how 34 saves in 39 with a 2.55 era ops is "much more dominate" than 30 saves in 31 ops with a 1.98 era. Save percentage is not a great sign of dominance, especially when you are talking about a time frame of under one season. Ryan has been a consistently dominating reliever for 3 years, with excellent peripherals numbers that should lead to confidence in his ability to maintain that dominance. Dempster has less than a season's worth of success as a reliever with less dominant peripherals. Things like k/9, bb/9, k/bb, WHIP are all leaning pretty heavily toward Ryan. better (or more dominate) reliever doesnt mean better closer. # sometimes do not translate into effectiveness when changing roles. the mental aspect of closing far outweighs any physical differences imo. hawkins was a dominate set up man who was never able to use his abilities to effectively close games while a guy like hoffman (who now throws in the high 80's) is a dominate closer. dont forget about the fact that ryan will be changing leauges. that can sometimes a major factor in effectiveness for a pitcher.

Consistency is overrated? A lot of guys have the "stuff" to justify a 3/24 contract. Not all of them back it up with repeatable success. Dempster's one year of success as a closer, without dominant peripherals, has justified a pretty significant 2 year deal. However, if you go to 3 years, and you spend that much per year, there are better options. Dempster at 3/24 is equivalent to Ryan at something like 4/40. Ryan is much more dominant than Dempster, and much more reliable. Wagner, same thing. I don't see those guys getting those deals, and Dempster shouldn't get anything that contends with those numbers. again, look at how consistant remmy & hawkins were before they got to chicago. granted, they were not used very well at times by baker (no suprise there) but they were not very effective compared to their history the whole time they were here. if hendry signs dempster to a 24/3 contract and he stays healthy & saves 45 games a year, it will have been a great move. if dempster gets hurt or blows up, it will have been a bad deal. if you are talking about bj ryan btw, i dont see how 34 saves in 39 with a 2.55 era ops is "much more dominate" than 30 saves in 31 ops with a 1.98 era.

i say put wood in the pen where he can be more effective & prolong his career. he may just get to like it as dempster has. it would show what kind of team player he by how he handles it if they do.

i would consider 30/31 in saves with an era under 2.00 as being "dominant" myself. after what they went through with jobo & hawkins, i would hope the cubs will do everything they can to resign him - maybe 24mil/3 yrs? Remember, that what they "went through" with JoBo was a year of great pitching in the setup role, followed by a year of great pitching in the closer's role, then a meltdown. Dempster has been no more dominant than Joe was in their first years as closers. 3/24 is way too much at this point. I'd consider as much as 2/12, but Ryan has never shown any consistency in his career (aside from consistently missing the plate), so 3 years is a bit too long to guarantee that type of salary. As bad as Joe turned out to be, the financial hit was pretty low since Jim stayed relatively smart with that deal. i liked jobo alot when he was healthy. what i meant was what they went through when he was injured & wasnt ever able to get back to form and had to use guys like hawkins & remmy to close. after the year he's had if the cubs dont give a competative offer, they will probably lose him and be back at square one when it comes to closer. he's still young and his stuff is wicked enough to justify 24/3 imo. consistency is over rated in many cases anyway and mostly it's a big crap shoot (see hawkins & remlinger).

i would consider 30/31 in saves with an era under 2.00 as being "dominant" myself. after what they went through with jobo & hawkins, i would hope the cubs will do everything they can to resign him - maybe 24mil/3 yrs? if the cubs do put wood in the pen next year, i forsee alot of 6 inning games with wood going 7 & 8 and ryan in the 9th (simliar to the dotel/wagner era in houston).