EastonBlues22

Yeah but here's the problem with that. Nunez is playing just as much as he did in Pittsburgh, basically as a part-timer and a pinch hitter, and he's all of a sudden gone from a 62 OPS+ to above average. He's being asked to do the same thing he was asked to do in Pittsburgh and is now doing it much better. Tony Womack was asked to be an everyday second baseman last year at the age of 34... did he all of a sudden figure out how to be a good everyday middle infielder at the age of 34? Did the Cardinals coaches find something with him that 10 previous years of coaching could not? Same thing with Carpenter and Tavarez. Carpenter was asked to start every 5 days, just like he was in Toronto, except now he's better at it. Tavarez has been a setup man most of his career. Most of these guys are doing the same thing they've been doing most of their careers, but they're just doing it better. In the case of Tavarez, maybe he didn't start cheating until last year, and that was the improvement. Otherwise, who knows? Maybe it's something in the water, or maybe Mark McGwire left some special pills in the clubhouse when he retired. :lol: That's a very simplistic way of looking at things. The Cards have all five of their starters in the top 31 in the MLB in GB/FB ratio. Do you think that's a coincidence? If you do, check out the fact that Marquis, Carpenter, Suppan, and even Mulder have all seen their GB/FB ratios increase during their tenures with the Cards over what they were previously with other teams. The Cards like their starting pitchers to keep the ball down in the zone and churn out ground balls...this keeps the ball in the park, pitch counts down, and plays to what has been the traditional Cardinal's strength of defense. Small things like that have the potential to add up to big differences in personal and team performance. I'm not saying every improvement is due to something like that, but surely some can be attributed to things like that.

Just for fun, the Cards have two regular position players starting in today's game against LA...Pujols and Grudz. Everyone else is a bench player or callup. Nunez, Taguchi, Pujols, Gall, Grudz, Rodriguez, Luna, Diaz... And they're still winning 4-2 in the top of the seventh. :lol: Sure, I don't think this level of play will last forever from most of these guys, but I'd still like to say this. If the Cards' fill-ins are such perpetual over-achievers...maybe it's time to just accept the fact that it's not a streak of amazing "luck." It's quite possible that the front office and coaching staff are actually very good ones. Nobody ever seems to call what Atlanta does with their players luck...it's always accredited to their coaching staff and player development. I'm not saying I think the Cards' coaches and GM are THAT good, but I do think it's possible that they aren't being given the credit they do deserve for the work they do with retreads and marginal prospects. A lot of a marginal player's success is dependent upon how well what talents he does have fit with the role an organization is asking him to fill. I think Jocketty does a wonderful job of identifying players with attitudes and skill sets that fit in with what the Cards are trying to do...and I think the coaches do a wonderful job of developing those skills and making it clear what every player's job is. Take Beltran for example...he's horribly mis-cast as a "marquee franchise player" and a #3 bat. Because of the expectations for him personally and the team in general, and because he's being asked to do things that really don't mesh with his best attributes...I think it's a stretch at all to say that his performance is suffering as a result. On the right team, in the right role, I think he'd be thriving.

That would be Manny Ramirez, who everyone takes a stab at his defense. Of course, at least part of the reason for his nice assist totals is that everyone runs on him every chance they get because they know he's weak defensively. His defensive contributions by any other standard are underwhelming at best.

It was a good series...congrats are in order. Classic Cards-Cubs series with two extra innings games and another that was a one run game. I'm not exactly pleased to lose the series...especially like that...but seeing as how Rolen, Sanders, and Molina are all out of commission, I guess I shouldn't be too surprised. Maybe I should add Walker to that list...he only played one out of the three games, and he wasn't even able to pinch hit tonight...what's up with that? Pleasant surprise of the series for me: Rodriguez and Nunez continuing to perform well as everday players during games with a playoff type feel to them...heck, even Mabry and Taguchi. They'll form a nice bench once the starters start getting healthy again. Biggest disappointments: Well, having four starters out or incapacitated to the point of inneffectiveness seems like the logical choice, but that's just part of baseball. Really, it has to be the relatively sub-par pitching performances from Morris in the second game and the bullpen in the third since both were completely out of character for them this season. Oh, and watching Diaz make any appearance whatsoever. He sucks at calling games, he's worthless at the plate, he can't control the running game, and he can't even hook up with his pitchers when it comes to flashing the signs. It's saying a lot when Mahoney is a better option than him to catch a game. I'm looking forward to round three in a couple of weeks.

Pujols has had more ABs with runners on than Lee (160 to 135--second and sixth in the NL respectively)...but Lee has actually had more ABs with runners in scoring position than Pujols has (87 to 81--third and fifth in the NL respectively). Lee's getting his chances.

I'm thinking Lee will hit in the 315-325 range, with a 380-400 OPS, and a 550-600 SLG. I'd like to see how he finishes this year before I make any predictions, but I would guess he'd better his career averages in most categories.

I agree with you...the adjustment that Lee made was outstanding. There are a few other hitters this year who've closed some holes in their swings who have also taken their game to accompletely new level. Still, eventually pitchers will figure out a way to limit the damage with adjustments of their own...or confidence will be lost for some reason...or an injury will nag and force a hitter to change their mechanics. Players always have some lows to go with their highs. Ichiro batted .266 though May and June over 222 ABs...who ever would have thought that was possible? Brian Roberts is batting .258 in July after three torrid months. It's just the nature of the game. Brian Roberts is not a physically gifted as Derrek Lee, and that does count for something. But you can hope. The reality is that the chances of Albert catching Lee for the batting title are remote at best. Derrek had a torrid first half, and he is a second half player, and always has been. He has showed no signs of slowing down, and has a massive lead. Eh, I'm not hoping at all...I really don't give two farts about the triple crown race. I just want my team to win, get in the playoffs, and have a shot at the Series. I was just trying to point out that the BA race wasn't as over and done as a lot of people seem to think it is. Anytime someone can bat their career average the rest of the way out and finish at a point lower than your main competitors career average, it's not all but over. Especially when the "second half" player in question batted .249 in the second half last year after a .304 start.

Ugh, man people are stupid. There's a few good posters on that board, but not many anymore...and the mountain of trash you have to sift through to find the nuggets makes it a waste of time. I'm a Cards fan who started on that board, and now I come here almost exclusively...I think that pretty much speaks for itself.

I agree with you...the adjustment that Lee made was outstanding. There are a few other hitters this year who've closed some holes in their swings who have also taken their game to accompletely new level. Still, eventually pitchers will figure out a way to limit the damage with adjustments of their own...or confidence will be lost for some reason...or an injury will nag and force a hitter to change their mechanics. Players always have some lows to go with their highs. Ichiro batted .266 though May and June over 222 ABs...who ever would have thought that was possible? Brian Roberts is batting .258 in July after three torrid months. It's just the nature of the game.

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average. yep, this pretty much covered what i was going to say. i highly doubt lee will regress to his career average before the end of this year. Just for clarification, I'm saying that Lee might bat at his career average in the second half...not that his current will average will drop to his career average during the second half. Now THAT I agree would be highly, highly unlikely.

But what exactly do you see in his performance that makes you think he'll hit his career average from here on out? He's 2-3 tonight and hasn't cooled off since the beginning of the season. At some point you have to say that this isn't a total fluke and that he's not going to just got back to his career average. I never said that I expected him to, I was just pointing out that if he did, then he would finish at a point lower than Pujols career average. Having said that...quite frankly I do expect him to regress at some point. I have trouble understanding how anyone could expect him to keep this up for an entire year. Are you telling me you think him batting his career average is less reasonable than him continuing to bat .370+? Look at Rolen last year. Pre-All star break he batted .339...post-ASB he batted .276...pretty close to his career average of .284...and he ended up at .314. I know he was hurt for some of that time, but I think the point is that just because you play above yourself for several months doesn't mean you're guarranteed to keep doing it for just as many more. Personally, I think Lee will bat somewhere close to .300 from here on out and win the batting title. If I had to pick one of the extremes, however, I would place money on him batting closer to .275 in the second half than .376 or whatever he's currently at.

I agree that it's sad that Lee isn't getting more appreciation for the amazing season he's having, but don't forget that Pujols is contending for the triple crown too. BA: 1) Lee .373 2) Pujols .339 HR: 1) Lee 30 4) Pujols 24 RBI: 2) Lee 75 3) Pujols 73 well, i wouldn't say pujols is contending for the triple crown. 34 points of batting average is a lot to make up - i know the actual stats have been posted a few times, but i think lee would have to go into something like an 0 for 45 slump while pujols continued hitting at his current average to catch up to him. i will not argue that pujols will challenge lee for the home run lead (and both lees for the rbi total), but i think average is pretty much out of reach. i could certainly be wrong, but i don't think pujols has more than a tiny chance at the batting title. Well, let's put it like this: If Lee gets up to the 595 ABs he's currently projected at, and he hits his career avg of .275 from here on out, then he'll finish with a .331 BA...which would be lower than Pujols career average. When you cram the difference into the space of a few ABs, it seems unlikely...but when you protract it out over the rest of the season, it doesn't seem nearly as farfetched.

I agree that it's sad that Lee isn't getting more appreciation for the amazing season he's having, but don't forget that Pujols is contending for the triple crown too. BA: 1) Lee .373 2) Pujols .339 HR: 1) Lee 30 4) Pujols 24 RBI: 2) Lee 75 3) Pujols 73 Lee and Pujols are the only ones in either league who are in the top 5 in all three categories. I think where the statistical contention comes from is that Pujols is pretty much exactly on pace for his career 162 game averages of .334, 41 HR, 130 RBI since his projections are .339, 42, 129. Lee, on the other hand, is playing so ludicrously beyond anything he's ever done before that it's much easier to expect him to cool off at some point. Lee's currently projected at .373, 53, 132. Those would best his career highs by .091, 21, and 34 respectively. I'm not saying it won't happen, after all the phrase career year exists for a reason, but I can understand why people would think it's less likely that Lee will keep up his pace than Pujols. As for the "plays for a contending team" argument...I'm not really a proponent of it, but I do think it's something that often affects MVP voting. If the Cubs snatch a playoff birth, I think Lee wins it in a landslide (assuming he doesn't fall off the face of the earth between now and then). If they don't, then he better be destroying Pujols statistically because if they are even close, then his chances aren't very good.

I've made no statistical inferences, or made any claims of predictive ablility, either stated or implied. Remember, the name of this bit is "Worthless Stats of the Day". I know you didn't, I didn't really mean anything by it. I just couldn't help but laugh when I saw the chart and thought that when reading through the game thread. BTW: Your posts are routinely a highlight of the thread. I was telling my girlfriend about you just now as I was reading along, but I don't think she shares my amusement. I think I'll mock her now and defend your honor. Now she's hitting me with a pillow...I think my laughing at her isn't helping the situation. Oops, now she's switching to a sandal...gotta go. :lol:

Wow. You never cease to amaze me Fred. Ya know, sometimes I even surprise myself ! :wink: mhuber92211 asked me if I could find a way to track such things..... and by golly, I figured it out. Ahem...I believe that was me 8) But anyway...have you come up with something terms of strength of the streak, or is it just the Cubs chances after a win or after a loss? Sherwood.... yes, indeed that was you. Forgive me for my "senior moment" there. :wink: not sure how you would define the strength of a streak, I'm just taking the CUBS' W/L record after a win, after 2 wins, after 3 wins...... and coversely after a loss, 2 losses...... etc, etc. W L pct after 9 losses 0 0 0.000 after 8 losses 1 0 1.000 after 7 losses 1 1 0.500 after 6 losses 0 2 0.000 after 5 losses 0 2 0.000 after 4 losses 1 2 0.333 after 3 losses 2 3 0.400 after 2 losses 7 5 0.583 after 1 loss 5 12 0.294 First game 1 0 1.000 after 1 win 14 4 0.778 after 2 wins 6 8 0.429 after 3 wins 3 3 0.500 after 4 wins 2 1 0.667 after 5 wins 1 0 1.000 after 6 wins 1 0 1.000 after 7 wins 0 1 0.000 after 8 wins 0 0 0.000 after 9 wins 0 0 0.000 after 10 wins 0 0 0.000 So let me get this straight...according to that table, winning is generally the best predictor for winning? There seems like there should be more to it than that. :wink: :lol:

I don't know how many Cards games you watch, but I've only missed about ten this year, and I have no idea what you're talking about with Walker complaining about the strike zone. Edmonds does so all the time, sometimes with words, sometimes with looks, but I can't even remember a single instance of Walker complaining about a strike or ball call. He just steps out and readjusts his gloves, then steps back in. He doesn't even look back. There's a lot of people who bitch and moan in baseball, and even on the Cardinals, but Walker's not one of them.

Heck, you can justify it because manager should do what is best for the National League. With that said, if D. Lee is nursing an injury than you sub him out. Other than that D. Lee plays the whole game at first and Albert hits every time in the DH spot. I don't care to see Jason Bay or anyone else on the bench bat at the expense of Albert or D. Lee. You get into very dicey territory when the manager of a division rival (Larussa) risks the best player off another team (D. Lee) for 9 innings in an exhibition game. I mean how would Card fans feel if Dusty was managing and he had Carpenter throw 8 innings with 120 pitches to "do what is best for the National League". He said that if Lee was nursing an injury, then he shouldn't play the whole game. If he's healthy, then how's that putting Lee "at risk" in some acceptable way? It's not like the eight extra putouts he might have a hand in, and the two extra at bats, pose a serious threat to him. Certainly nothing like pushing a pitch count over the top like that.

Carpenter's Game Scores since April 16th start 4/21 - 78 4/27 - 63 5/2 - 51 5/7 - 43 5/12 - 56 5/18 - 53 5/23 - 68 5/29 - 57 6/3 - 70 6/8 - 50 6/14 - 94 A good game? i'm not impressed by anything other than the first and last starts. His AGS trails only (in order) Martinez, Clemens, Halladay, Santana, Meyers, Peavey, Willis, Zambrano, Rogers, Buehrle, and Oswalt in the entire league. I'd say he's doing a decent job. I just noticed that he's also tied for first in the MLB in quality start percentage at 86%.

Carpenter's Game Scores since April 16th start 4/21 - 78 4/27 - 63 5/2 - 51 5/7 - 43 5/12 - 56 5/18 - 53 5/23 - 68 5/29 - 57 6/3 - 70 6/8 - 50 6/14 - 94 A good game? i'm not impressed by anything other than the first and last starts. His AGS trails only (in order) Martinez, Clemens, Halladay, Santana, Meyers, Peavey, Willis, Zambrano, Rogers, Buehrle, and Oswalt in the entire league. I'd say he's doing a decent job.