Rob

What? Leaving him at closer isn't exactly throwing in the towel when we don't have anybody better for the job right now. Camp and Russell posted similar FIPs and xFIPs last year and aren't exactly big upside guys themselves. Maaaaaybe Fujikawa, but I think it's pretty early to suggest that. As to the "sucks" thing, 2010 was his best year. 2011 was definitely respectable. And he was just fine after coming off the DL in late May last year. Is anybody expecting him to revert to his 2010 form? No. But there's a very reasonable chance he could look useful to a contender. Your argument isn't logical. It's purely emotional. Which is fine, I suppose, as long as you'd rather be making silly arguments than being frustrated.

Most of the people lobbying to have him taken out of the closers role are being pretty dumb. He's not an elite reliever anymore, but the Cubs don't have anybody that's any more than a 50/50 shot to be better. Best to leave him there and try to get some trade value. Besides, it's not like 3 innings pitched tells you anything about a player (not even stuff like how "hitable" they are). That said, I'm not completely ignorant as to the human factor of things. Marmol is going to have a much harder time righting the ship with all the added pressure from the media and fans. Probably best at this point to pull him out of the role, get some nice matchups to boost the stats, and maybe reintroduce him to the closers spot in Mid-May when the public has stopped paying attention -- It worked last year. It does suck that the fans had to choose a guy we're trying to trade as the scapegoat though. Why couldn't it ever be a non-entity that we shouldn't care about, like Brent Lillibridge or Joe Mather?

Sex

This isn't technically the offseason anymore, but I don't know that it warrants its own thread. Apparently the Cubs signed Ryan Sweeney to a minor league deal. Nifty little deal. He's a good defender and has just enough bat. Averages almost exactly 2 WAR per 550 PA for his career (though you can probably bring that down thanks to one UZR outlier). This is what I like about Theo and Jed. They trade Campana for potentially useful pieces and then replace him with a better player for no cost. It's not going to make or break the organization, but it's nice to have people at the helm who have a clue.

That's awesome. Raisin, thanks so much for all the work you put into this.

I think he definitely belongs with that Whitenack, Loux, Wells grouping. And I think I like him just a tick better than Whitenack, so 22 works for me.

Lets get to 50. We are close. Oh, and Starling Peralta was returned. So he's probably a lock for the 48 spot.

Aren't they going to try and turn Cabrera into a starter this year? Unless the Cubs are in serious contention, and absolutely need an internal bullpen arm, I doubt they circumvent the plans to turn him into a starter to get him into the bullpen this year. I totally forgot about that, but I'll stand by it. What's the fun if these aren't bold statements?

Garza is not traded this season. Edwin Jackson posts the highest strikeout rate of his career. Alberto Cabrera establishes himself as a setup man by the end of the season.

Yeah, I suppose. Piss-poor strikeout rate moreso than whole approach. I was just going off memory.

Concepcion, Devoss, and Golden. Same rationale as before for the first two. Golden I have very little faith in due to his piss-poor approach, but with his tools he presents an interesting challenge for the coaching staff.

38.) Concepcion - Still just because the Cubs saw something they thought was worth the bonus. 39.) Devoss - Tons of walks, good speed. Could have a career in the Luis Castillo "My OBP is higher than my SLG" mold. 40.) Struck - Not much more than a back end or swing guy, but he's likely to contribute. That's enough at this point in the list.

Hopefully they can just install Kelly Pickler as the full-time seventh inning stretch singer.

He's got some value as a high-leverage base runner, but he gives back all of it on offense. And I think you're a bit too quick to label him a plus defender. If I were the GM of an AL team in the playoffs with a healthy and durable pitching staff, I'd love to have Campana for October. But with roster construction what it is these days, there's no use for him the rest of the season.

35. Dunston Jr. - A bit more polished than I expected. 36. McNeil - Moderately interesting. 37. Concepcion - Purely based on the fact the front office saw something they thought was worth a crazy bonus.

The Indians seem pretty committed to rebounding from last year, but I'm still not sure they're anymore than a .500ish club. That's an interesting lineup now, at least. Lots of options for the manager on any given day.

Besides, even if the Cubs aren't bunting often, I'd like them to be at least somewhat proficient at it for the rare occasion it makes sense to.

It seems the big money cable deals may have more an inflationary effect on salaries than I had anticipated. I'm gonna reserve judgment on the Felix deal. I don't particularly like it, but I can't say it's going to be good or bad.

32. Trey Martin - Frankly I'm shocked you guys didn't already put him on. This is about where I had him, but I felt I was probably going to be the lowest on him of anybody. 33. Shawon Dunston Jr. - Still quite raw, but his approach was much better than I expected. I've got him in a dead heat with Martin. Coming up with 34 is tough for me. I want to put an arm there, but everybody at this point has big question marks. I like Scott, but he posted some pretty awful peripherals. Struck doesn't have much of a ceiling. Rosario and Arias are kinda old for their leagues. And of course there's Concepcion, who probably deserves the Hayden Simpson "maybe he'll get over his mono" spot on the list. 34. Ryan McNeil - Mostly because I can pretend he wont have the problems the other guys have.

Yeah, it's an interesting topic. If you give Vitters a full 650 PA projection for that peak, along with his Iowa strikeout and walk rates, you'd be looking at a .308 BABIP to post a .275 average with 20 HR. That's a bit lower BABIP than I tend to think of when looking at "peak", but everything else in the projection is optimistic... so yeah, all in all I'd say that's probably a fair peak projection.

I'm down to keep going if enough other people are. I'd like to see Concepcion and Devoss added before too long if that's the case.

That's a bit of a mischaracterization, but whatever. The simple point of the argument was that Vitters still holds some value even if not at 3B... whether that's a platoon guy, a second-division starter, or just plain trade bait to whomever might think better of his glove. Hairston was 24 before he got a taste of AAA. I don't know enough about PCL park factors from 2004-2006 to make a fair comparison between the two. There was a good deal of applause on this board for the Hairston signing. I was just a bit surprised to see a guy who could easily be on the same career path being completely disregarded by some.

Thank you, Kyle. Scott Hairston has mostly floated between a .330 and .340 wOBA without positive fielding or baserunning value. That bodes well for my suggestion that an optimistic, but still reasonable projection can still see him fall somewhere in the range of good bench guy or league average-ish starter, even at a position other than 3B.

Josh Vitters last year in the PCL: 6.6 BB%, 17.0 K%, .210 ISO. The walk rate was a best for him, but he kept it up even during his struggles in the majors. It seems like a focus he had last year. His strikeout rate in the minors has actually fluctuated between about 18% and 11% in the minors (the 11% came in 2011 at AA.) The strikeout rate was over 30% during his cup of coffee. Just for the sake of argument let's call the walk rate real improvement and chalk the strikeout rate in MLB up to small sample size and nerves. Let's pretend he can get that back down close to his higher minor league figure. But given the nature of the PCL, you should probably write off some of that power. Here's a few guys last season who were posting comparable ratios. There weren't any perfect comps -- at least not in people who played full seasons. But this is the best I could get. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3433,1908,3086,1737,3473,9205 I don't think it's unreasonable to project Vitters might be able to put up something like Morneau did last year. Yeah, he'd be a below average starter at that, but it's not bad. And given his hit tool and supposed propensity for line drives, I don't think I'd be all that shocked to see him score a couple .330 BABIP seasons in his prime. I don't want all this to sound like I'm in love with Vitters as a prospect. I'm definitely not. But I just don't understand the sentiment that he can be completely written off if he's not playing 3B. It seems like anywhere he can be a -5 fielder he has a shot to carve out a career as a second division starter.

Exactly. What kind of offense do you really think a decent 1B/LF/RF puts up in this offensive era? Vitters might not have great potential outside of 3B, but it's not like it's 3B or bust for him as a valuable piece. If he can get the K's back down to his minor league rate, he's somewhere between a good bench player or a league average starter at any of the other corner spots, depending on his fielding.