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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. You're just trying to suppress our free speech.
  2. Doesn't get much more random than this. I'm currently sitting in an investment property workshop being hosted by former Cubs backup catcher Tom Lundstedt. He's pretty good, if anybody was wondering.
  3. Is it a swing and a miss if we opt to sign Scherzer instead of Lester? How about if Theo gets Amaro drunk enough to deal Hamels for something reasonable? Of course it's not. So relax and wait to see how it all plays out. It's not a swing and a miss unless we go into Opening Day without having made the upgrades. Resist the urge to feel like our offseason hinges on one guy, because it doesn't.
  4. That's the kind of logic that led to letting go of Ramirez because adding 4 guys' WAR together could replace him. But with a five-man rotation, I think I'd rather have Arrieta, Liriano, McCarthy, Hendricks and No. 5 spot then Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Turner and Straily or other No. 5 spot. (Yes, I realize we should be able to get Lester AND one of them, but still). That, and I'm just not interested in giving a non-Clayton Kershaw $25 million per for that many years. If there is a great offensive option at that price, sure, but I'd rather have two quality pitchers than one really good one for that cost and the years. So you're not interested in ever signing a TOR pitcher. Fair enough I guess. Even Samardzija types are going to be getting that kind of money. I think that's fair to say. I would want Clayton Kershaw for that much at his age. But for the most part, just not interested in giving one pitcher that much money and that many years. Because whether we like it or not, that $25 million per season during those seven or eight years will prevent us from doing a lot of other things. I'm just not sure Lester is the guy to go all in on like that. Average cost of a win is now in the $7M range. So for $25M a year, you'd be looking for an average of about 3.5 fWAR per year. That's basically what guys like Kazmir, Kuroda, and Buehrle did last year. It doesn't take much anymore to justify it... just stay healthy and be 10% better than league average. (Obviously, significantly better pitchers don't need to stay quite so healthy to justify it.) I know it seems like a stupid amount of money (and it is), but these sorts of deals are perfectly reasonable in the current landscape.
  5. Kennedy's career FIP is 3.91. His xFIP is 3.96. His ERA is 3.93. I'm not overly worried about him being the type to underperform his peripherals.
  6. Kaplan is a despicable racist and one of the biggest tools in the universe. That said, I trust his sources over Gordo's.
  7. It's a Boras thing, probably. He loves to wait on the market for the top guys.
  8. Not Pearl Jam, but this Nirvana mashup is pretty fantastic.
  9. I've seen a lot of places suggesting Hanley will be playing in LF and Cespedes is the one on the move, not Bogaerts. I'm not sure how much I believe it, but I can't believe a team would sign Hanley to play SS and sign another big money guy to block him from being able to move over to 3B.
  10. If he doesn't cost much, I'd be all for it. Fowler's numbers are awesome. He's a platoon player who is slightly above-average at best. And he really isn't much of a CF. I have to imagine his market value is probably out of whack with his production. He's probably not worth what it'll cost to bring him in.
  11. 01001000 01100101 00100000 01110111 01100001 01110011 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100011 01101111 01101111 01101100 00100000 01100111 01110101 01111001 I like that you bothered to make sure that actually says something.
  12. What the [expletive] is a "quality assurance coach"?
  13. I'd love to see Martinez as bench coach for the Cubs. I'd also like to see Sandberg flip his [expletive] about it.
  14. I just called into the Cubs phone number and asked for Jim Hen Theo Epstein to encourage him to work out a deal for Jon Lester. I know I'm crazy but what can I say? His secretary said he was in a meeting (maybe working on the contract for Lester?) so he couldn't take my call. I ended up leaving him a message telling her that I know Theo will do his best to counter the Heyward trade. I told her that I'm hoping Lester will be that player. The secretary said Theo will appreciate my kind words. Also BigBird says this deal will happen, so I believe him. I'll bite. Who was that from this board who really did this a few years ago? Seems like it was some old codger. Sweet Swinging Billy viewtopic.php?f=6&t=49648 RIP
  15. I think it has to do with expectations many people had for him (that he was going to be an offensive beast) that have gone largely unfulfilled. Defense just isn't as sexy as big offense, especially from a corner. I don't agree with it, but I'd bet that has a lot to do with the negativity. plus a guy with elite defense and average offense is just not that good a player; offense is far more important than defense in player value. the bigger problem is that everyone sees his slugging percentage and thinks he's an average offensive player, which he isn't. Runs are runs, whether you add them with the bat or prevent them with the glove.
  16. Go home, you're drunk. Heyward had the lowest strikeout rate of his career last year. It was his best OBP since his rookie year. He was one off his career high in SB while posting his best success rate so far. And he's the best defensive right fielder in baseball, by a pretty hefty margin. He's a great player. This trade is pretty simple though. Heyward has one year left on his contract and seems determined to test free agency. The Braves aren't really contenders next year. So it's better to get something for him than nothing. The Cardinals gave up a combined 10 years of cost controlled young pitching, each with #2 potential. It's a pretty big haul for the Braves for a guy they couldn't keep. John Hart is a schmuck, though. If he's really Baseball Jesus and you are so sure that you aren't going to be able to keep him why not wait until the FA market thins-out or until the season starts to deal him? Wouldn't you be in a better position to get more for him? BTW, he slugged .384 last season and posted his lowest OPS+ since his brutal 2011. I get that he's an excellent defensive RF'er, but that seems to be where the majority a significant amount of his value is based. He's not a good enough hitter to be considered "one of the best players in baseball" by any stretch. So I'd suggest it is you who is drunk. Over the last 3 years, he has been the 13th best player in baseball. (2012 - 10th, 2013- 67th, 2014 - 25th) I don't know what your criteria for "one of the best players in baseball" is, but I'm gonna guess it's more to do with an arbitrary gut feel than anything else.
  17. Go home, you're drunk. Heyward had the lowest strikeout rate of his career last year. It was his best OBP since his rookie year. He was one off his career high in SB while posting his best success rate so far. And he's the best defensive right fielder in baseball, by a pretty hefty margin. He's a great player. This trade is pretty simple though. Heyward has one year left on his contract and seems determined to test free agency. The Braves aren't really contenders next year. So it's better to get something for him than nothing. The Cardinals gave up a combined 10 years of cost controlled young pitching, each with #2 potential. It's a pretty big haul for the Braves for a guy they couldn't keep. John Hart is a schmuck, though.
  18. wait is this a serious question? Forgive me if I am wrong, but wasn't Taveras considered a consensus top 3 (or 5) prospect who OPS'ed .953 at age 20 in AA? Meanwhile Heyward's OPS has dropped significantly each of the last three years and he hit 11 HR's last season. So yes he was better than Taveras last season, but that wasn't likely to continue, so its a probably a net downgrade. I'm just trying to look on the bright side here. Jason Heyward is one of the best players in baseball. Definitely top 5 for RF. He was a 5 fWAR player last year and has averaged more than 4 fWAR for his career. HR aren't everything. He's every bit as good as a guy like Rizzo.
  19. In theory, something like Alcantara+ a couple interesting guys should be enough. Heyward is a great player, but it's his walk year and the Braves have already telegraphed that they'll likely let him or Upton (or both) leave, which hurts their leverage. In practice, the Braves are still ostensibly contenders for a WC spot, and if they're out of it at the deadline Heyward may fetch a similar return at that point anyways. So I don't see it happening unless we overpay, which we'd be silly to do since we can probably sign him next offseason if we really want him.
  20. I'd take Chapman, McGee, and Doolittle over Miller as far as lefties are concerned.
  21. Apparently the legal limit down there is just 0.05. Still pretty absurd, but it doesn't sound like his BAC was a coma-inducing 0.4.
  22. He was at five times the legal limit at the time of the crash
  23. $5 says we try to pass him through waivers again before May 1.
  24. I expected a crummy ERA and good peripherals. In reality, he's got a crummy ERA, crummy peripherals, and averaged 89 mph with his fastball while working primarily out of the bullpen. He hasn't been particularly interesting in a couple years, not since he stopped being a college pitcher beating up on kids in A ball.
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