Rob

I keep getting the feeling we're going to trade for Burrell and get hosed both there and when we have to flip him.

Okay, help me out here because I obviously don't understand intangibles. How exactly is having a PED user on the team just fine, but having an [expletive] (who hasn't broken any rules) isn't? I like Mike Cameron. He's a hell of a baseball player. But for all those people trying to justify letting Bradley go on some sort of moral grounds, it seems like your logic train jumped the tracks if you're okay with acquiring Cameron to replace him.

I would never give a player who is so reliant upon his speed for value a 4 year deal... especially a speed player over 30. One badly pulled hamstring and you've got no value left.

Winning ballgames is what sells the tickets. The fans will always find players to dump the "face of the franchise" label onto. OK so suggest a trade that allows the Tigers to win more ballgames in 2010. Why is 2010 the only year that matters? Even the Mayan apocalypse crazies believe there'll be 2011 and 2012 baseball seasons.

If the Cubs still like Fontenot better than Baker, it's because he's still the better bet for 2010.

You would be wrong. No, I'm not. Edit: Stupid swear filter ruined the other part of what I wanted to say, so allow me to rephrase. You aren't smart enough to be dismissive of others opinions... especially without giving reasons why. You merely come off as an ass.

Only in a very technical sense. The Cubs were offered that cash for their draft slot (which they didn't plan to use). They didn't have any idea who they were going to draft for the Reds until minutes before the draft.

J.P. Blevins and Mike Wuertz Cubs have given up Damien Miller, Jerry Blevins, Mike Wuertz, Rob Bowen, Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, Josh Donaldson and Matt Murton In return they've gotten Rich Harden, Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall, Chad Gaudin, Richie Robnett, and Justin Sellers. I'd say Hendry is whupping Beane's ass right now.

I totally agree with you, but we have to be careful saying something good about Hendry around here. Hendry has lots of faults, but trading is probably his single biggest strength...... It certainly is... but only when he chooses the right attributes to be focusing on. Nolasco, Pinto, and Mitre for one year of Juan frickin Pierre will forever haunt me.

Looking at what we got back, I'm willing to give this trade a big ole thumbs up. And not that it was ever particularly likely he'd end up our starter at 1B next season anyways, but I'm very interested to see how the Cubs decide to handle the situation there after this season.

Miles trade edited in. Still waiting on contract details for Grabow.

Winning ballgames is what sells the tickets. The fans will always find players to dump the "face of the franchise" label onto.

Im interested in him, but not if Castro or Vitters are necessary to make the trade work. Id also rather keep Cashner and Jackson, but if one of them are needed to make the deal, Id be OK with it. Detroit reportedly want major league ready players. Between Fox, Fuld, Colvin, Marshall, Gorzalanny, Samardzjia, and StevensI really think we can make something happen, and wed also probably have to kick them a solid prospect like Burke, Lee, Carpenter, Castillo, Archer, or Dolis. I don't think there is much of a chance the Cubs can get Granderson without giving up any of Castro/Vitters/Cashner/Jackson . Grandersons decent, but fairly expensive, and the Tigers want to cut costs. Id offer: Jake Fox 1 of Fuld or Colvin 1 of Gorzalanny/Marshall/Shark any 1 prospect besides Vitters, Castro, Jackson, or Cashner Thats a major league ready platoon or 4th outfielder, a DH, a #4 or 5 starter and solid prospect. If they accept, good. if not, we move on. This is bat [expletive] crazy.

We've been through this before. Just because the phenomenon we're discussing cannot be distilled down to a column on fangraphs (Attitude WARP? Personality WARP?) doesn't disprove its existence/importance. And you're using what to "prove" its existance? Common sense? I can't prove its existence, and I've said as much. Nobody can. We can observe the anecdotal evidence, though: teams generally steer clear of these guys. You're using circular reasoning. Teams shouldn't like guys with attitude problems. We know it's true because these guys with attitude problems aren't wanted by these teams.

We've been through this before. Just because the phenomenon we're discussing cannot be distilled down to a column on fangraphs (Attitude WARP? Personality WARP?) doesn't disprove its existence/importance. And you're using what to "prove" its existance? Common sense?

Really, that's an issue to take up with The Hardball Times. They're the one who put out the tool to calculate a quick expected BABIP. Assuming the work they did was accurate, my expected lines are as well. It's a relatively simple matter to adjust those batting lines. When Perry was fired this season, the club was batting .246, a full 32 points lower than they batted in 2008, despite returning almost the same team. I'm inclined to believe there was a good deal of bad luck involved. But as to this work having future predicative value, I'd be skeptical. If Ryan Theriot was missing out on 3 hits this season, there's a lot of factors that could easily nullify that next season. Though of course the larger the difference, the more likely the player regains some of that value. Soto is obviously quite unlucky, and I'd be willing to bet he rebounds somewhat. Aaron Miles too. Maybe Fontenot. But beyond that, I'd not read too much into the results looking forward. This is merely a record of what should have happened last year.

Blyleven, Raines, Alomar, Larkin, and Trammell should be no doubters unless you're hung up on the spitting or coke or dutch sounding name or whatever other personal issues they may have had. McGwire absolutely deserves to be in, but I understand not voting for him based on steroid stuff. The occasional rationalization you'll see based on his lack of fielding prowess and ability to hit for average are absurd though. He's got the career value. Edgar is an interesting test case for the DH. His batting numbers are absolutely at a good enough level, but I have a hard time justifying voting for a player with absolutely no defensive value. I probably wouldn't be able to decide whether or not I'd vote for him until I actually was mailing in the ballot. Dawson is a hard case, I know in my mind that he falls in that range where he should probably be on the outside looking in, and forever be resigned to being one of the best players not in the hall... but my personal feelings would dictate I'd vote for him regardless. McGriff is in the same situation, but wouldn't get the hometown vote. Oh, and I wouldn't vote for Jack Morris if you held a gun to my head. Carlos Zambrano already has the same amount of career value, and he hasn't even turned 29 yet.

Is this true or a mistake? Either way, this is some great stuff. Thanks for the info! No typo. Fuld got exactly the results this season that he deserved.

Not much. Even if you assume Grabow's deal is backloaded (let's say 3 mil this year and 4.5 next), we'd still need to fill fourteen roster spots on top of what we've got now. That's 5.6 mil if everybody was making league minimum, which they aren't. And if I'm not mistaken, we probably have a few guys getting ready to be arb-eligible.

A lot of people on here seem to forget 2009 ever happened. Harden was the WORST starter on our team and was shut down with shoulder issues at the end of the season. Given the Cubs financial state they couldn't risk paying him 9 or 10 million if he accepted. I'd love the Cubs to have an unlimited budget but they don't and Harden isn't a an asset at that type of salary. Actually, Harden had a lower xFIP than Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and Wells. He was our best starter.

A move down in the defensive spectrum probably costs Theriot about .5 WAR after you factor in his defense getting better (though in fewer chances) and the higher offensive requirements of the position. Factor in that he's coming out of his peak years, and I'd probably start looking to unload him after he clears about $6 mil per season in salary. And that's assuming a complete lack of internal options, which wont be the case.

The new methodology involves not just LD%, but the raw numbers of ground balls, fly balls, and pop outs as well as at bats, strikeouts, home runs (as a proxy for power, I would assume) and stolen bases (as a proxy for speed). It even involves park factors. Thankfully, all of those numbers are easily available. If I wanted to calculate actual xBABIP, I'd need to have spray charts and everything, but this gets pretty damn close to it.

Bench is up!

Yeah, but that's probably two weeks worth of work to get my spreadsheet to handle that. Off the top of my head, I'd have to output their full batting lines instead of just slash stats, use that to calculate EqA, use EqA to calculate EqR, and then adjust that figure. Considering it's finals season, you're probably gonna need to wait a while unless I manage to think up a shortcut.

Last August, I made a quick and dirty attempt to calculate what we should expect our players' BABIPs to be, and then adjusted their batting lines accordingly. (Located here) All in all, I was pretty pleased with the work, but another reader pointed out that my methodology could have been a touch better if I had bothered to use xBABIP (a formula developed by The Hardball Times) instead of the lazy LD% + .120 rule of thumb. Well, I still don't have access to xBABIP, but I do have a tool developed by the Hardball Times designed to give a much more accurate estimation than simple LD% + .120. So I figured what the hell. This is our team with neutral luck (more or less). Round 2 begins below with our starting lineup for most of the year (and both major 2B). Quick stats lesson for the uninitiated found under the spoiler: Player - Geovany Soto Actual Line - .218/.321/.381 Expected Line - .269/.365/.450 Comments - Just like I said last time, his sophomore slump is grossly overstated. He's a fine young catcher who just had terrible luck this year. Player - Derrek Lee Actual Line - .306/.393/.579 Expected line - .293/.382/.561 Comments - His great season looks a bit less impressive in this light, but not by enough to make me any less excited about his resurgence. Player - Mike Fontenot Actual Line - .236/.301/.377 Expected line - .268/.329/.418 Comments - Nasty slump and a touch of bad luck. I expect better next season, but we should be looking at external options for our 2010 starter. Player - Jeff Baker Actual Line - .288/.343/.425 Expected line - .260/.318/.389 Comments - Can we please put to rest the idea that Baker deserves a real shot at the starting job next season? He had a nice, luck-powered streak in Chicago, but he's the short side of a platoon player and occasional backup at 3B. Player - Ryan Theriot Actual Line - .284/.343/.369 Expected line - .294/.352/.381 Comments - Missing a handful of hits. Player - Aramis Ramirez Actual Line - .317/.389/.516 Expected line - .290/.365/.484 Comments - Not a whole lot to say. He was about what you'd expect from him if you factor in a nasty shoulder injury costing him half the season. He was a bit lucky, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep putting up his actual line anyways once his shoulder gets healthy again. Player - Alfonso Soriano Actual Line - .241/.303/.423 Expected line - .260/.320/.447 Comments - Somewhat comforting to think the decline wasn't quite as steep as it looked, but it's still a pretty bad line from a player who is getting older and showing serious injury concerns. Player - Kosuke Fukudome Actual Line - .257/.375/.421 Expected line - .279/.392/.462 Comments - Fukudome suffers the most from the new methodology (although that september swoon didn't help). Still, a pretty good season turns into an all-star one. Player - Milton Bradley Actual Line - .257/.378/.397 Expected line - .268/.387/.411 Comments - We all knew he hadn't had any problems getting on base, and while he was slightly unlucky in that regard, adjusting for luck doesn't do anything to give him back any of his power outage. Bench players coming when I get around to it. Bench: Player - Koyie Hill Actual Line - .237/.312/.324 Expected Line - .243/.317/.332 Comments - A hit and a half off. Player - Jake Fox Actual Line - .259/.311/.468 Expected Line - .275/.325/.488 Comments - Looking a bit better. Player - Micah Hoffpauir Actual Line - .239/.300/.427 Expected Line - .259/.317/.453 Comments - He wasn't ever going to keep up that 40% line drive rate he had in 2008. This is more like what you'll see from him, which isn't bad for a bench guy making the league minimum. Player - Andres Blanco Actual Line - .252/.303/.341 Expected Line - .280/.329/.377 Comments - Blanco has been below his expected line in 2005 and 2006 as well (he didn't play in the majors in 07 or 08). If he can start actually putting up the line he should be, he could be a quality SS considering his glove. He'll be 26 next year and entering his prime, so I might not place a nice career beyond him just yet. Player - Aaron Miles Actual Line - .185/.224/.242 Expected Line - .271/.306/.355 Comments - We all knew that there was no way that anybody could really be that bad, but even adjusting his line up by 100 points doesn't make it look anything but crappy. Another cautionary tale of paying too much for a player without a real skillset to speak of. Player - Bobby Scales Actual Line - .242/.312/.411 Expected Line - .254/.323/.429 Comments - It was a fun little story to have him called up finally at age 31. And he certainly held his own, though I sincerely doubt he's capable of putting up a .200 IsoP year after year. Player - Sam Fuld Actual Line - .299/.409/.412 Expected Line - .299/.409/.412 Comments - He is missing out on nine-thousandths of a single hit using this methodology. While I don't think he can keep putting up a LD% of 24.7%, he's our best internal option if we absolutely must send Milton Bradley packing. Player - Reed Johnson Actual Line - .255/.330/.412 Expected Line - .281/.353/.448 Comments - Yet another in a long line of our players missing out on 3-5 hits. In his case, it may have been enough that he'll have lowered his price and return to the team next year. Player - Tyler Colvin Actual Line - .176/.250/.176 Expected Line - .272/.331/.272 Comments - Normally I wouldn't bother on a guy with 20 PA, but this is the closest thing to a real prospect we brought up last season and he hit the ball well enough for those 20 PA that he should have gotten another hit or two. And a bonus player! Player - Carlos Zambrano Actual Line - .217/.225/464 Expected Line - .237/.245/.493 Comments - Carlos was robbed!