nilodnayr

I think it depends on how they feel about Rich Hill. I agree, Pie definitely cannot be the centerpiece. They would be interested in him, but he couldn't be the #1 in the deal. A lot of people seem to think that our farm system doesnt have much to offer. Thats really not true. Much like the major league club, our system has a lot of promising prospects, we just dont have that one superstar in the system like a Gamel or a Rasmus. Vitters is the closest thing, but hes too young to know how much value he'll have in the long run. Wed have to deal with quantity more than quality. With a team like the Padres, we could easily get a deal without someone like Soto or Marmol. Wed take Pie, Marshall, and Ceda or Ascanio and go from there. Yes, I've been saying the whole time we have the "interesting" prospects that would fill out a deal, but we really don't have that one big guy that needs to be there. IMO the only guy that they might consider that big guy is Hill, maybe you could make a case for Theriot. I don't think Pie, Marshall, and Ceda gets us anywhere near the table.

I think it depends on how they feel about Rich Hill. I agree, Pie definitely cannot be the centerpiece. They would be interested in him, but he couldn't be the #1 in the deal.

Whaaaa? Slightly hyperbolic because of ages and Pence's lack of platoon split, but they aren't far off in what they would be expected to produce. I know his 2007 numbers were fuelled by a pretty crazy BABIP, but still, hes probably somewhere inbetween this year and last year. Hes an 800+ OPS guy who plays a pretty decent CF. We haven't seen the patience he displayed in the minors and if he does realize it we're looking at a league minimum Mike Cameron. Thats nothing to sneeze at. I also think the fact that he has succeeded two years in a row in the majors alleviates a lot risk of top unproven prospects, lets say a guy like Colby Rasmus, that a team would build into their valuation of him.

Whaaaa?

source article: http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/oct/14/padres-peavy1420020/?padres Hmmmm. The last places we want him are Houston and St. Louis. The Dodgers couldn easily put together a deal for him. Hopefully Hendry can go all out and pull another rabbit out of his hat. Hes dont it before. Houston has 0% chance of having the pieces to get him. St. Louis on the other hand does, but they'd have to give up Rasmus. Pence for him would get it done. They would consider Pence for him. I guess thats a possibility, but like I've said earlier, I think SD would be looking for more of a Danny Haren package than a CC Sabathia package. They have a lot of spots they need filled. Hunter Pence for the next 4 years isn't going to help them any more than Jake Peavy will. They need quality AND quantity and should be willing to sacrifice a little of the former to get more of the latter.

So you don't think the three year averages become less "skewed" when you factor in the 2005 data? I think it lends support to Meph's analysis. That said, I think you and Meph are arguing over semantics. You both exaggerated a bit to make your point, and you both agree that Iwamura and Fukudome are not similar players -- and I agree with that. You are right, the 2005 numbers really throw a wrench into the outlier years excuse that I was using before. If I take their last 4 years in Japan, weight them 40/25/20/15 and normalize for PAs (ie we are weighting Fukudomes last year in Japan 60% more than his second to last year in Japan, but his second to last year had 60% more PAs than his last so they end up being weighted about the same), you get the following weighted BB and K rates: Iwamura: BB%-10.8, K%23.2 Fukudome: BB%-15.5, K%19.2 I don't see how one could claim that Iwamura "strikes out a lot" and the Fukudome "displayed great plate coverage, recognition and discipline, something Iwamura did not". Fukudome "showed great contact skills, something Iwamura did not" The fact is they both struck out at a decent clip. Iwamura definitely moreso, but not to the degree that Meph implied. In terms of ranking their differences offensively I would say patience is #1, power is #2, and contact skills/recognition/whatever you want to say determines striking out is a very distant #3.

Or something similar could at least get the Padres to the table. Thats lacking a major arm from the Cubs. If you add Rich Hill (and they value him decently), that might get you to the table. I also think they might like Theriot over Cedeno and would probably ask for Fontenot as well (since Antonelli sucks).

Edited all of my posts with the updated numbers. It doesn't change my conclusions much, I ticked Iwamuras K rate up 1% and Fukudomes BB rate up 1%. The number still prove there is much more similarity than what Meph insinuated. But, I don't think they are really that similar players because as Meph said, the park factors skew the power numbers for each of them. But I was just pointing out that some of the non power related stuff he said about them was just plain wrong.

Well thats poop, I was using thebaseballcube and didn't notice that for some reason the don't have any 2005 data on Fukudome. So that 12.1% is 2004. I'll update my data using your link. And doesnt look like it has 2005 for Iwamura either.

Um, no, I'm not. http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=993 146 Ks for Iwamura in 618 PAs in 2005. That's 23.6%, right? Sorry, you said "at bats" in your post, so thats why I assumed you were looking at ABs, not PAs.

Well thats poop, I was using thebaseballcube and didn't notice that for some reason the don't have any 2005 data on Fukudome. So that 12.1% is 2004. I'll update my data using your link.

The year after that outlier year he struck out in 24% of his at bats. So in his last three seasons in Japan -- the three years that his power jumped significantly -- Iwamura stuck out around 20% of the time in one of the seasons. Sorry, didnt address this in my last post. I think the issue is that I'm looking at per PA (rough PA), whereas you are looking at per AB, so thats why our numbers aren't jiving. Here are Iwamura's K/PA rates from most recent year in Japan onward. 20.6% 23.6% 28.3% 21.3% 19.8% 19.7% 21.1% 16.8% He he constantly struck out in 20-23% of PAs except for his rookie year and the one outlier. I'm comfortable pegging that as his true talent.

The year after that outlier year he struck out in 24% of his at bats. So in his last three seasons in Japan -- the three years that his power jumped significantly -- Iwamura stuck out around 20% of the time in one of the seasons. In his final three years in Japan, Kosuke walked 15%, 13% and 20% of the time. I think his patience at the plate was improving toward the end of his career. I'm not a fan of career numbers for the same reasons you are normally, and I don't think the 3-year data is as skewed as you paint it to be. If you drew a line of best fit, yes you might see a SLIGHT upward movement, but less than you think. Using BB/PA, here are his numbers from most recent Japan season onward. 19.8% 13.1% 15.2% 11.9% 12.6% 9.2% 12.7% 12.2% 9.5% One really important thing to note is that his 20.4% season (as I know you know) came only over 269 ABs because of his elbow injury, his shortest year. What you see (other than his rookie campaign) are 5 years hovering around 12-13%, one full season a decent clip below and one season a decent clip above and a half season quite a decent clip above. I'm pretty comfortable pegging his true talent at a BB/PA rate somewhere around 13-14%.

source article: http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/oct/14/padres-peavy1420020/?padres Hmmmm. The last places we want him are Houston and St. Louis. The Dodgers couldn easily put together a deal for him. Hopefully Hendry can go all out and pull another rabbit out of his hat. Hes dont it before. Houston has 0% chance of having the pieces to get him. St. Louis on the other hand does, but they'd have to give up Rasmus.

Dividing percentages? Seriously? No offense, but thats one of the most [expletive] things to do in math. Face it, some of your claims were wrong.

Are you looking at their career numbers? Over their last three seasons in Japan, Iwamura struck out in ~24% of his PAs and walked in ~11%, and Fukudome struck out in ~19% of his PAs and walked in ~15%. I quoted career numbers for 2 reasons. 1) Iwamura had an extreme outlier year in his second to last season in Japan, where he struck out in ~28.3% of PAs. Every year other than that he was right around 20%. 2) Fukudome had an extreme outlier year in his last season in Japan, where he walked in 19.8% of his PAs. 5 of his 7 previous years he was around 12% (with the 1 other year dropping below 10% and 1 above 15%). I'm normally not a fan of career numbers because players obviously evolve and change. But because both players had some huge outlier peripherals in years towards the end of their Japan careers, using the last 2 years or 3 years creates a smaller sample size and vastly skews their stats.

Well a decent amount of what you said there simply isn't true. You draw the conclusion that Iwamura "strikes out a lot" and the Fukudome "displayed great plate coverage, recognition and discipline, something Iwamura did not". Fukudome "showed great contact skills, something Iwamura did not" In Japan Iwamura struck out in 21.8% of his PAs, Fukudome struck out in 19.7% of his PAs. In Japan Iwamura walked in 9.3% of his PAs, Fukudome walked in 12.7% of his PAs Iwamura and Fukudome stuck out at nearly the same clip in Japan. Fukudome definitely had a real advantage in BB rate, but not to the margins you imply. Now, one thing I did not do was adjust for park effect. As Meph mentioned they played in two very different parks, but if anything I would think that playing in the larger park should depress Ks not inflate them, as a pitcher would pitch to contact if he doesn't have to worry about the HR as much. That would draw their very close K numbers even closer. BTW, their K and BB rates remain materially unchanged in the US. Both players walk a smidge more often and strike out a smidge less often. And Iwamura's batted ball data indicates that if he has changed himself into a slap hitter then hes terrible at it because he has GB/FB is around one standard deviation off of league average.

Generally speaking the NTC is waived when a guy wants out badly or he's offered a carrot. Samardzija hasn't done enough for Hendry to smear his name (Sosa) or to justify offering any more of a carrot. A NTC isn't just a matter of getting permission, it makes trades very difficult, and often forces discounts that players value in trade. I agree, NTCs hold different weight for different players in different situations. Many times players have NTCs added to their contract so if they are traded they can force the tradee to give them a sweetener, not necessarily to block a trade. But obviously, Shark wanted a NTC because he wanted to be in Chicago, otherwise he probably would have played football. In the general sense of NTCs it doesn't mean a trade can't happen, but in the specific sense here, I think it does.

I very much disagree. Look at the Padres and the Indians, they are worlds apart. The Padres are looking to slash payroll, have a terrible minor league system and have many holes. The Indians are looking to keep payroll steady at a decent amount, have a good minor league system, and (despite their 2008 campaign) should be a a playoff contender with just a few holes. The Indians were looking for one excellent prospect that could help in the short term to push them over the edge. They needed quality, not quantity and they got arguably the best power hitter in the minors. What would Matt LaPorta do for the Padres? Allow them to be hot on the heals of the Giants for 4th in the NL West? Like I said earlier, they should be looking for a Danny Haren-eque deal and mimic what Oakland has done. One very good prospect and a handful of other interesting prospects that could pan out. They have many holes to fill and will be looking for quality AND quantity (obviously the more of the latter means less of the former). I'm not saying that the Padres should be looking to get a lot of AAAA players, but one Matt LaPorta isn't going to do jack for them. I also think at this point Greene (with his contract) has neutral value at best, and probably negative value on the trade market.

And that is an issue. But would He accept a trade if his choices are start for the Padres or Iowa? Well, the I-cubs are probably going to be about as good as the Padres next year and in 2010 he'll definitely be on the the Chicago Cubs, so no, I don't think he'd accept the trade.

I wouldn't mind trading Marmol (but I think the Cubs definitely do). Although, I think SD is the type of org that realizes that with the team they are going to field, their bullpen isn't going to be that important. Also, I know we are talking fantasy, but Samardzija's NTC means hes not going anywhere. I think Theriots value is going to have the greatest variance depending on who you talk to. His value to SD (and their need for cheap players) is going to be greater than a lot of other clubs. Additionally, his skills play well for the stadium, as opposed to Greene. SD will probably ignore the BA, but Theriot did put up a 340 wOBA (see list of qualifying SSs below), which does show that he put up one of the better offensive years among SSs. Lets say that SD values Theriot a pretty decent amount given his production/cost. Additionally, they could value Rich Hill pretty highly given his risk/reward. I think Venable isn't going to satiate their desire for Pie, so lets throw him in too. Fontenot would be attractive, again for the cost and upside. And Vitters could round out the bunch as the top prospect (Kouz can't play D and they aren't against moving Headley to the OF). I wouldn't mind the video game trade of Theriot, Hill, Pie, Vitters, Fontenot for Peavy, Greene, Giles. I wouldn't mind taking Gerut back either if we could. Its all fantasy, but what the hay. HanRam-389 Reyes-348 Hardy-347 Drew-344 Peralta-342 Guzman-341 Theriot-340 Jeter-340 Escobar-333 Rollins-331 Young-328 OCab-312 Scutaro-312 Tejada-311 Renteria-306 Betancourt-298 Crosby-287

Nothing yet

It's horrible. They basically say Dempster was a fluke and Harden will collapse. Don't buy it. What about Marmol? His ERA wasn't over 4 was it? I don't know how anyone in their right mind would say that they have no reservations about Dempster for 2009 and onwards. Pitchers typically are worse as starters than they are as relievers; Dempsters transition was insane. A smart bet on Dempster coming into this season was that he'd be a league average SP and after this year a smart bet would probably be somewhere between a league average SP and what he put up this year (closer to league average). Therefore a 4.11 ERA doesn't make me say OMG ROFL IDK my BFF Jill, especially considering that the regression to the mean across the board puts his 4.11 as a pretty darn good year compared to the league. Same thing for Harden, a 3.7 is pretty darn great. People just think that if a guy puts up a 2 ERA he can do it year after year after year. Well guess what? Thats really really hard to do. That 3.7 is about a quarter run above his career FIP, ohhhhh sooooo pessimistic. If a 3.7 ERA is a collapse, well then let me escort you out of the deadball era and into the real world. And Marmol, well Marmol probably isn't going to fit into the system so well because his H/9 is just otherworldly. I'm sure that gets regressed to the mean big time for him. He has a big problem with BBs that he lives with by not allowing guys to make contact with his pitches, but theres only a certain amount of sustainability with that. There should be concern there, but everyone is blind with Marmol love. With his odd peripherals, his FIP last year was 3.62, so its not like 4 is that insane. But like I said, I don't think he'll fit into a model well, especially one with major regression to the mean.

Hill? Rich Hill? He still has value? If I was another GM, I'd be trying to Anthony Reyes him out of Chicago. Yeah, but A) Reyes never sucked like Hill sucked this year and B) all the Cards got for him was a low level relief prospect Despite that, I still think he will have decent value. Unlike Reyes, Hill has a spectacular major league season under his belt, which I think more than wipes out the two negative points I made above. Dont forget, Hill either needs to be traded or on the major league roster next year so his name is going to pop up in trade rumors. Given the brain trust in SD, I'd have to imagine we'd see something like what Beane has done in Oakland. Think Danny Haren, they'll look for one big prospect but also a handful of really interesting prospects to round out the package. Unfortunately, I don't think we have that one big prospect. Possibly its Rich Hill, but possibly not. Hill, Pie, Vitters are closer to big prospects than interesting prospects, but individually, none of them are top 25 material. It really depends on how SD evaluates our players. We know they've been intersted in Pie before. From SD's willingness perspective, I wouldn't give us great odds on Peavy, but I wouldn't count us out either. Unfortunately, I don't think the Cubs would be interested in giving away the needed talent for him.

um, duh, they are marcels