Diffusion

It is preventing outs, and it is a benefit of speed. All the same, my guess is that that doesn't happen particularly often. Assuming no error, the difference in the value of a strikeout relative to a normal out is practically zero when there are no runners on-base, as is the case most of the time with the leadoff hitter, particularly in the NL. As such, again, the effect of this is relatively small. The strikeouts though do suppress Wilkerson's average, for what that's worth. Not much, because he gets on-base using the walk, which is just as good as a single if the bases are empty. A very minor consideration. Again, a very minor consideration. For 2002-2004 (his last three healthy seasons), Wilkerson reached second base, at least, on his own an estimated 74.9 times per 650 plate appearances. For 2003-2005 (his last three healthy seasons), Juan Pierre reached second base, at least, on his own an estimated 80.5 times per 650 plate appearances. So, over the course of approximately a full season, Pierre reached second base on his own about 5 times more. An advantage that is absolutely irrelevant when you consider that Wilkerson was automatically scoring 24.4 times per 650 PA relative to Pierre's 1.76 times. The formula I've used to estimate how many times the players have reached 2B on their own is [(2B + 3B + HR + SB) / (PA)] * 650 Hardball Times look at this, and decided that over the course of the last five years, Pierre has been worth about 8 runs a season over an average baserunner in terms of taking extra bases on other people's hits. Wilkerson is probably an above average baserunner. It measures them accurately enough to know that they're not hugely important. Yes, they still count. But you add up all the tiny little things you've included here that are supposedly in Pierre's favour (although some of them apparently aren't when you look at the numbers, like GIDP) and it doesn't change the fact that Wilkerson is still the better player.

Eh, I'd be more comfortable with Pavano than Rusch at the back end of the rotation. Pavano's not worth his current contract (Wasn't it a 5/50 deal?), but if you could sucker the Yankees into picking up part of his contract in exchange for CPatt/Novoa, that wouldn't be the worst of ideas. I grant you, he's not a front of the line guy. But as a 4 or 5? I'd be fine with it, assuming the price was right. Also, until I see a second reliable source about what Stark said on Gamenight (if he even was on that show), I'm calling shenanigans on this rumor. $39.95m/4yrs, of which there's $30.95m/3yrs left. Pavano has a NTC. And he's rubbish. And we don't need back of the rotation starters.

The rule is that if a player is traded in the middle of a multi-year deal, he can demand a trade the following off-season, and if his demand isn't met by March 15th, he can opt-out of his contract and become a free agent.

Thanks a lot. I'll re-run the numbers in a minute

Why do you think Tim said no arb to Nomar wasn't the worst thing that happened these last few days?

Wellemeyer for Quintanilla, sign me up.

HA! HENDRY: Okay, board, what's the absolute maximum amount of money you'll give me to sign a middle reliever? MacPhail: $12m is the absolute maximum, Jim HENDRY: Cool ... A few minutes later... HENDRY: Hello, Bob, glad you returned my call! Yes, I've just spoken to the board, and I would like to offer you $12m! HOWRY: For one year? HENDRY: Erm, sure. HOWRY: I'm not sure that I could live with the expectations that would come with me earning that kind of money. Also, you might be fired if you make that kind of an offer, and I want to sign many contracts with you. Hey, how about you make it $12m over three years. They won't fire you for that. Then in three years time, we can do this all over again! That way I can get two $12m contracts! HENDRY: Wow, Bob, you're good at this contract negotiating stuff. HOWRY: So do we have a deal? HENDRY: Let me just make a phone call. [puts Bob on hold] HENDRY: Hey, Dusty, how's it going? BAKER: Dude, I haven't caught any striped bass today. It's like batting Corey Patterson leadoff, one day you... HENDRY: Would you like a $12m reliever in your bullpen? [Crosses fingers and hopes for the best] BAKER: ...and then I said to him, "whaddya know, your girlfriend ends cheats on you with a black guy because he can stand the heat better, dude!" So I... HENDRY: Dusty? BAKER: Yeh? HENDRY: Would you like a $12m reliever in your bullpen? [Crosses fingers and hopes for the best] BAKER: Sure, whatever, dude. Anyway, let me finish my story, so it's like when Reggie Jackson went into hospital and excavated... Hendry hangs up HENDRY: Bob! Hey, well, I just all cleared it with Dusty! So, would you like to sign a $12m contract for one year? [Crosses fingers and hopes for best] HOWRY: No, Jim, like I said, it's got to be three years, I can get more money in the long-run that way, and you won't get fired, only frowned upon, though only for a few weeks, because then someone will give Antonio Alfonseca a $21.5m deal and everyone will talk about what a bargain I was... HENDRY: I really like the way you're looking out for me. HOWRY: It's nothing. HENDRY: So, $12m/3yrs? HOWRY: Sure. Fax me over the contract! According to my sources, this is exactly how the Howry deal went down. My sources are more reliable than George Offman. Nice. The sad thing is that I think the Howry signing is my favorite offseason move so far. (Apart from DFAing Macias, that is.) Gah, I should have used Neifi. I knew I was forgetting someone. I wish I didn't.

HA! HENDRY: Okay, board, what's the absolute maximum amount of money you'll give me to sign a middle reliever? MacPhail: $12m is the absolute maximum, Jim HENDRY: Cool ... A few minutes later... HENDRY: Hello, Bob, glad you returned my call! Yes, I've just spoken to the board, and I would like to offer you $12m! HOWRY: For one year? HENDRY: Erm, sure. HOWRY: I'm not sure that I could live with the expectations that would come with me earning that kind of money. Also, you might be fired if you make that kind of an offer, and I want to sign many contracts with you. Hey, how about you make it $12m over three years. They won't fire you for that. Then in three years time, we can do this all over again! That way I can get two $12m contracts! HENDRY: Wow, Bob, you're good at this contract negotiating stuff. HOWRY: So do we have a deal? HENDRY: Let me just make a phone call. [puts Bob on hold] HENDRY: Hey, Dusty, how's it going? BAKER: Dude, I haven't caught any striped bass today. It's like batting Corey Patterson leadoff, one day you... HENDRY: Would you like a $12m reliever in your bullpen? [Crosses fingers and hopes for the best] BAKER: ...and then I said to him, "whaddya know, your girlfriend ends cheats on you with a black guy because he can stand the heat better, dude!" So I... HENDRY: Dusty? BAKER: Yeh? HENDRY: Would you like a $12m reliever in your bullpen? [Crosses fingers and hopes for the best] BAKER: Sure, whatever, dude. Anyway, let me finish my story, so it's like when Reggie Jackson went into hospital and excavated... Hendry hangs up HENDRY: Bob! Hey, well, I just all cleared it with Dusty! So, would you like to sign a $12m contract for one year? [Crosses fingers and hopes for best] HOWRY: No, Jim, like I said, it's got to be three years, I can get more money in the long-run that way, and you won't get fired, only frowned upon, though only for a few weeks, because then someone will give Antonio Alfonseca a $21.5m deal and everyone will talk about what a bargain I was... HENDRY: I really like the way you're looking out for me. HOWRY: It's nothing. HENDRY: So, $12m/3yrs? HOWRY: Sure. Fax me over the contract! According to my sources, this is exactly how the Howry deal went down. My sources are more reliable than George Offman.

If he'd been claimed off waivers, it would have registered. The waiver period is long gone now. And Greenberg was available for selection in yesterday's Rule 5 draft. Essentially, Greenberg can only have been assigned to the minor leagues.

It really sucks that if we want Wilkerson now, we have to go through a GM that seems to have a good idea what he's doing.

I mulitplied stolen bases time .9 to account for attempted steals of third. A stolen base doesn't advance other baserunners in the same way as a total base does. Therefore it's not as valuable. Lefty thought that maybe a stolen base is worth half a total base. I thought, maybe it's a bit more, I guessed it was worth two thirds of a total base. But I don't really know exactly what it's worth. No, they are somewhat valuable, and, no, I didn't work in things like that. What I did do though was add a caveat, that if we absorded basestealing into Pierre's numbers by adding stolen bases times a constant to slugging and subtracting caught stealings from on-base, then we had to consider Pierre an excellent baserunner, whereas Walker quite obviously can't be considered that at all (though he's not bad or anything). This relies on you being able to make a distinction between baserunning and basestealing though. Then I argued that baserunning wasn't worth the difference between them. Further to what CPat said... Juan Pierre hit 305 groundballs last year in 719 plate appearances (10 GIDP, career high!) Brad Wilkerson hit 126 groundballs in 661 plate appearances (6 GIDP, career high!) So you know why Pierre always seems to only just be beating out double plays? Because he all he does is hit so many frigging double play groundballs! Anyway, since Wilkerson hits into less double plays, I think we should hold the extra double plays against Pierre. Another reason not to want him. He kills rallies with his double plays! Whatty what what?

Look, if Dusty Baker can get over Rey Ordonez, so can you. Don't try and tell me you meant Magglio. The best case scenario with the guy is that he has $63m coming to him over the next four years, he stays healthy and he merits being paid about two thirds of that. The worst case scenario is basically Darren Dreifort.

Greenberg is still in the organisation, I can tell you that much. So he can only have successfully cleared outright waivers. If he was claimed, he'd be gone by now, and we all know that he wasn't traded.

What would Tampa want for both Lugo and Huff, though? That could cost a bundle. All the good prospects will be in Florida, somewhere. Marte and one other good prospect I think would do it, maybe two mid-tier ones. I still like Huff, by the way.

I've said it for ages, but Renteria and Lugo are essentially the same player. So if the Red Sox don't pick up any money, and then send Marte to the Devil Rays as part of a package to net Lugo and Huff, then they're basically adding Huff while riding themselves of an awful contract, and they're not taking a hit production-wise at shortstop at all.

=D> or Wilkerson, who many have been enamored with his power hitting -- 11 homeruns in 565 at bats . :-k With a bad shoulder in an extreme pitcher's park in a pitcher's division. He's a 25+ home run guy. With a .370 OBP. Playing a just about serviceable CF. What an amazing trade by the Rangers, absolutely amazing. Words go beyond describingly ridiculous by Bowden. Their OF situation right now, for the record, is... Dellucci, Matthews, Mench, Nix, Wilkerson, Sledge. Hmm, I really have no idea what they're planning there, so whether this means Wilkerson is off the table or not, I don't know.

Wilkerson takes a ton of walks, and he hits for a good deal of power. He plays a serviceable center field. He's no Milton Bradley defensively, but he's better than Pierre. What don't you like about him? AVG? K's? I saw Wilkerson play last year in the nationals games I attended in DC and he had little power (11 HRs in 565 ABs), played poor defensively (the Nats prefered he play corner or first), and he would K a lot in contact situations. While I think he may turn it around a be a solid ball player. He would not have satisfied our need for a leadoff hitter and barely looked better than Christian guzman in many of the games. I saw Pierre play last year. He had no power, was slightly below average defensively with his unspectacular range and awful arm, and didn't strike out at all, instead specialising in slapping the ball to the fielders with swinging bunts. On top of that, he didn't get on base because he doesn't walk much and when he was on base he ran into outs or was picked off far too often. But hey, he was fast. Oh, and Pierre didn't have the excuse that he was playing through injury, as far as I'm aware.

What you don't take into account in those adjusted stats is the the effect of having an effective runner on the bases having on a pitcher. Wilkerson doesn't give that threat. I have not seen it as a Cubs fan but I will be paying close attention to see how Pierre truely effects posing pitchers. And I'm excited watch that and see for myself how true it is or not. I mentioned that on, like, the fourth page. But check this out... Player C (C for Cubs') OBP numbers taking into account CS: 1996: .281 (25 games) 1997: .288 (52 games) 1998: .360 1999: .326 2000: .351 (80 games) 2001: .342 2002: .346 2003: .331 2004: .345 2005: .353 Career: .340 Player C's SLG numbers taking into account SB: 1996: .346 (25 games) 1997: .382 (52 games) 1998: .497 1999: .420 2000: .495 (80 games) 2001: .460 2002: .440 2003: .429 2004: .468 2005: .475 Career: .451 So here you have a guy that's .340/.451 career, compared to Pierre's .329/.427, clearly better. Like Pierre he's also a slightly below average defender. He'll earn half Pierre's salary in 2006, and since he's already on the Cubs, he'll not cost anything in prospects. The only difference is that Pierre is obviously a better baserunner, when by baserunner I mean staying out of the double play, going from first to third on a single, scoring from first on a double, scoring from second on a single, putting off the pitcher and defence, forcing errors, everything that is supposedly associated with speed, for right or wrong, besides, specifially, anything to do with basestealing. Are you arguing that Pierre's baserunning is worth 11 points of OBP and 24 points of slugging? If so, are you arguing that Pierre's baserunning is worth 11 points of OBP, 24 points of slugging, Pinto, Nolasco and Mitre, plus about $2.5m of payroll? If not, then why on earth has Hendry made it his top priority to trade for Pierre on the basis that he's a leadoff hitter? Surely, with a decent leadoff hitter already in hand as it is, he should be pursuing the best all-round centre fielder he can get, not insisting upon overpaying for the rare and thus overvalued commodity that is a leadoff hitter?

Sure. Pierre's OBP numbers taking into account CS: 2000: .326 (51 games) 2001: .353 2002: .313 2003: .334 2004: .341 2005: .302 Career: .329 Wilkerson's OBP numbers taking into account CS: 2001: .296 (47 games) 2002: .357 2003: .363 2004: .365 2005: .336 Career: .352 As Lefty pointed out earlier, there's something of a question as to what a stolen base is worth relative to a total base. For now, let's run with the assumption that a stolen base is worth two thirds of a total base. Pierre's SLG numbers taking into account SB: 2000: .343 (51 games) 2001: .465 2002: .396 2003: .438 2004: .451 2005: .412 Career: .427 Wilkerson's SLG numbers taking into account SB: 2001: .336 (47 games) 2002: .479 2003: .481 2004: .513 2005: .415 Career: .465 There simply isn't a case for Pierre being better than Wilkerson even when you take into account Wilkerson's poor basestealing.

Barry Zito, Sergio Mitre and Landon Powell/Kurt Suzuki to Philly Jerome Williams, Ryan Madson and Ricky Nolasco to A's Bobby Abreu to Cubs Please. And yes, the inclusion of Ricky Nolasco does mean that I hope the Pierre deal falls flat on its face.

Confirmed. Cool. 2 confirmations and 2 denials. Which is it? Did Juan Pierre get caught stealing 2nd or 3rd 17 times last season, or was he picked off 1st base half of those times? Or, was he caught stealing 17 times and picked off maybe another 3 or 4 times? From what I remember whenever a player is picked off they also add that as caught stealing as well. No they don't. A caught stealing is only recorded if the runner makes an effort to advance to the next base. Does anyone have Juan Pierre's picked off base numbers then? Just so I can make my point about a good chunk of Pierre's OBP being thoroughly useless even more scathing.

Fixed for you. .329 This thread is a hoot. If you are going to factor in his cs's into his OBP (which is logical) you also have to factor the other 40 odd times he got himself into scoring position as a positive. I believe he did in an earlier post in this thread. I did. And it was somewhat refuted by Lefty, who argued that a stolen base is worth less than a total base because a double advance runners already on the bases further than a single and steal.

Fixed for you. .329 Okay, I fell asleep, but now I'm up. How do you know that Pierre will run as much as he did with the Marlins? Again, Baker isn't as aggressive as McKeon was. I'd be willing to bet that his attempts go down and his percentage goes up to about 75-80%. Why the ridiculous emphasis on acquiring a protoypical speedy leadoff hitter if they're so uninfatuated with his running game that they'll ask him to tone it down? They probably think that between his career OBP and his potential to steal bases they've upgraded the position. I just posted it in response to another post, but I'd be willing to bet that his SB attempts decrease, since Baker just is not that aggressive. Does that change his success rate? Maybe, maybe not. But to the Cubs, running 50 times with Pierre is still an upgrade, and Pierre gives them lineup stability. That might begin to explain their efforts. If Baker's not that aggressive, why can't he just bat Todd Walker leadoff and be done with it?

Fixed for you. .329 Okay, I fell asleep, but now I'm up. How do you know that Pierre will run as much as he did with the Marlins? Again, Baker isn't as aggressive as McKeon was. I'd be willing to bet that his attempts go down and his percentage goes up to about 75-80%. Why the ridiculous emphasis on acquiring a protoypical speedy leadoff hitter if they're so uninfatuated with his running game that they'll ask him to tone it down?

Just because it's the only explanation that you can come up with doesn't mean it's the explanation. What does it matter if it's his fault or not? The point is he's still getting caught. He's still out. He still can't come around and score. Are you trying to irrationally argue, as USSoccer is, that Hendry/Baker have gone to such lengths to acquire this prototypical speedy leadoff man just so that they can tell him to run less often, to get caught stealing less often?