hossdriver

The Knuckleball Bob Uecker, on the best way to catch it: "Wait'll it stops rolling, then go pick it up." ...and on the benefits of catching it: "I met a lot of important people. They all sit behind home plate." ...and a strikeout play: "(Phil) Niekro struck out a hitter once and I never touched the ball. It hit me in the shinguard, bounced out to Clete Boyer at third base and he threw out the runner at first. Talk about a weird assist: 2-5-3 on a strikeout."

Golf endorsements are SICK... Amazing... I figured Peyton Manning would be higher... 'CUT THAT MEAT!!'

I blame Lou, and the 'gut' lineups he trots out there. While I like Fuld's energy and hustle, he isn't a leadoff hitter, especially at the ML level. With Soriano out, you gotta put Theriot and Fukudome up there. Personally, I go with a lineup, AND KEEP IT for a streak of games to let the hitters acclimate. How do you expect Fukudome to adjust when he's bouncing around the lineup every single day. Good job by Fuld today. I keep starting him and riding the lightening until it runs out though. Let Soriano have the rest, and a good seat watching somebody play his position the RIGHT way...

There are smart people out there with YEARS of experience and empirical data behind them to be able to make these kinds of prognoses. Nothing has been said to suggest that this will be a 'injury'. Ramirez had the same injury earlier in his career, but it certainly hasn't limited his numbers in his years with the Cubs. Doctors base these estimates on ALL KINDS of data and variables from extent of injury, age and health of the patient, etc., etc. 4-8 weeks is actually a WIDE berth. I'm sure someone in the know had seen enough of these types of injuries to have a good timeline. But you're talking about a spread of about a month. Were Rammy coming back 3 or 4 weeks ago, I might argue that the return was a little 'rushed'. Coming back at 'roughly' the original 8 week mark, at home, against the Cardinals seems plausible. Either way, even at 85%, he'll be as good or better than most anyone else in the lineup has been, and certainly better than any of his 3B replacements since he went on the shelf...

My motto: Never leave a game early...

But THIS team getting Aramis Ramirez and Teahen, while jumpstarting the offenses of Soriano and Soto might... With Ramirez out and Soriano doing the hop, the Cubs are down about $35M in normal production. If Soriano turns it around soon, and Aramis comes back healthy and productive, it will be like getting 2 deadline guys to help the team. The problem hasn't been NOT having the bats, it has been that our routinely GOOD bats have been quite bad... Get some bullpen help and a utility infield guy that's WORTH A DAMN.

I think Hendry was looking for that happy medium this offseason when he brought in Aaron Miles and Joey Gathright and dealt Mark DeRosa. He was looking for more left handed hitting and more speed/grit. The problem is, the players who excel in small ball - Miles, Gathright, Pierre, etc - aren't all that good baseball players. The improved Cub offense was, I think, a mix of both Gerald Perry teaching a more patient approach and acquiring players who had a good overall approach (Soto, Fuku, Edmonds). To give all the credit or all the blame to one of the two is incorrect, I think. I don't think there was an obvious choice - if there was, it would be a certainty that the problem will now be fixed. Firing Perry was an option, but I don't think it was the best option. I agree that its a combination. I think it has more to do with key acquisitions than anything else because there wasn't a huge lift in OBP during Perry's first year in 2007. The Cubs WERE last in OBP in 2006, but lost Derrek Lee most of the season. They also had key acqs like Ward, Floyd, and Soriano (however slight the OBP increase) to show for it. I don't necessarily buy the idea of 'teaching patience' at the Major League level. Joshua is known for teaching hitters the mechanics of 'going the other way'. Some may not liken it to 'small ball' like I do, but it lends itself to playing to the other teams deficiencies like defensive alignment and the like. He could have the MOST impact on younger Cub players like Theriot, Fontenot, and Soto who are integral struggling parts of the lineup right now. Most often when a players tries to make himself into a slugger (or just tries to 'drive the ball' more, ala Ryan Theriot), the swing gets out of control and BA and OBP take a hit while K's go up. I think the Cubs fall into this trap in key situations, generating bad contact and high K rates.

Well now I'm sure you're a troll. I'll really miss you and your sig. I assure you, I'm no troll. Reading a lot of posts here, I can tell I've probably followed the Cubs longer than a lot have been alive. I respect Tony LaRussa for his managerial approach, while at the same time loathe him as a person... The guy wins, plain and simple. He can get Aaron Miles to bat .317. He can make championships out of mediocrity...

He didn't preach patience, but he also supported bringing in players who were either never very good (Neifi, Macias) or never showed any patience (Jacque, Soriano). Dusty actually manages similarly to the way you seem to want the offense to move toward. He sac bunted a lot, played for one run often, attempted stolen bases often and had players swinging to put the ball in play more than to make good, solid contact. That style of baseball, especially in this era, will lose you more games than it'll win. It's hard to ignore the good job he's done the last two years simply because he couldn't fix a few problems over two months this season. Maybe Joshua will come in and see some things that Perry didn't, but Gerald Perry's instruction was not the root cause of our struggles, so I have trouble justifying his exit. Both Piniella and Dusty have their faults no doubt. I wouldn't want Dusty back. I would like a happy medium. I'd like to see the Cubs do things (like in the 9th inning yesterday) to CREATE scoring opps, runs, and wins, that's all... Look, I hate that Perry had to lose his job. I think it is mere coincidence that the Cubs great offense the last two years coincided with increased payroll, key acquisitions, Derrek Lee getting healthy and the like. I'm not sold on pinning the offensive successes on Gerald Perry, nor would I pin the flaws solely on him neither. The team OBP and batting averages are down. The payroll is 3rd in the league and the Cubs are not scoring runs. From a management standpoint and watching 4-5 key guys struggle at the plate with no end in sight, making a coaching move to shake things up is the obvious choice...

hoss, you want to double check your numbers there. He's not hitting anywhere near .400 on 0-0 and 0-1. Soriano AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP P/PA IsoD RBI% Pitch# 1 32 5 10 1 0 3 4 0 0 0.313 0.313 0.625 0.938 0.241 1.00 0.000 0.111 Pitch# 2 49 6 14 5 0 3 8 0 0 0.286 0.294 0.571 0.866 0.239 2.00 0.008 0.250 Pitch# 3 40 4 7 0 0 4 7 0 11 0.175 0.175 0.475 0.650 0.120 3.00 0.000 0.120 Pitch# 4 40 6 8 4 0 1 1 9 12 0.200 0.347 0.375 0.722 0.259 4.00 0.147 0.000 Pitch# 5 46 8 9 3 0 3 6 5 22 0.196 0.275 0.457 0.731 0.286 5.00 0.079 0.167 Pitch# 6 24 7 4 0 0 0 1 4 11 0.167 0.310 0.167 0.477 0.308 6.00 0.144 0.167 Pitch# 7 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 0.286 0.375 0.286 0.661 1.000 7.00 0.089 0.000 Pitch# 8 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 0.167 0.375 0.167 0.542 0.500 8.00 0.208 0.000 Pitch# 9 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.667 0.667 1.000 1.667 1.000 9.00 0.000 0.000 Pitch# 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 10.00 0.000 0.000 Pitch# 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 11.00 0.000 0.000 Pitch# 12 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 12.00 1.000 0.000 All Pitches 249 40 57 14 0 14 27 22 66 0.229 0.296 0.454 0.749 0.254 3.86 0.067 0.131 3yr splits have him at .429 and .373 respectively on 0-0 and 0-1 counts... I chatted about this on another board a few weeks back, and obviously his numbers for 2009 have taken a hit during the slump. They are in the low .300's now, but clearly his best hitting counts... I have studied this at great length and shown that Soriano's career numbers fit him best at leadoff (however it may hurt the team), because he's terrible in counts other than 'traditional fastball' counts, and with runners on base. I agree he is not a prototypical leadoff hitter, but he probably serves the Cubs better there, especially when he's hot... He has a higher OBP at leadoff and is not good in the clutch.

Dusty's team had low OBP because he refused to preach patience. He played a lot of small ball when he had opportunities, but had NO CLUE how to get more opportunities... That team in 2003 rode Lofton and small ball role players nearly to the pinnacle. I disagree with the thoughts on Perry. No, he didn't cause Bradley or Soto or Fontenot how to hit, but he had over 2 months to correct hitting slumps and didn't. All three players are making terrible contact and have huge holes in their swings. This is what the hitting coach is supposed to be able to correct. All have been adequately patient, but their either not seeing the ball well, or have swing flaws...

Bulls - 6 Colts - 1 I actually followed the Bears up until Payton retired (and once the came to Indy and established themselves). I suppose I did the Superbowl shuffle just everyone else here. I won't count that one though... IU - 2 I like Duke too, since Coach K is a Bob Knight prodigy... But I won't count them either...

The problem is that you are basing your argument on a false premise. The false premise is that doing the "small" things is going to work when doing the "big" things doesn't. There's not one bit of evidence to suggest that is the case all of the time or even most of the time. I don't want to insult you, but at some point you have to turn off the Bob Brenley's of the baseball world because they are full of it. Look at Maddux in his prime. He'd walk a guy who hurt him in the past on purpose, let the team burn an out by bunting him over to second and then get the next guy out on a weak ground ball. Greg Maddux is an exception and not the rule. The guys used Jedi mind tricks, which are not illegal by written standards, but fall under that 'unwritten' rule. It isn't just about bunting. How about going the other way on a H-n-R? How about stealing bags? How about having the aggressive baserunning fundamentals to go 1st to 3rd (relying on the coach instead of looking over the shoulder)? Love watching Lee do that yesterday, BTW. How about squeezing? How about making just enough contact to move runners? How about Sacrifice Hits or Sacrifice Flies? Its frustrating to watch these guys hit limp grounders, foul out, GIDP, or K with a runner on third... This is why Tony LaRussa is MILES ahead of MOST other managers. You KNOW he's got his guys laying down the squeeze. You KNOW he's got runners in motion, but his guys are so damned practiced at it, that you cannot defend it. His team's fundamentals are in a class all their own year in and year out.

It's not like he's a bad hitter on 0-1. His career line on 0-1 is .350/.365/.670 and that's in a decent sample of 575 plate appearances. It's when he gets to two strikes that he tends to suffer...like most hitters do. That's just at-bats that end on 0-1. After an 0-1 count overall, he's .242 .271 .423. League average this year .227 .272 .344 So he's more or less the same amount better than league average 0-1 as he is overall. Right, meaning when he swings 0-0 or 0-1 and puts the ball in play, he absolutely rakes. He suffers afterward. I've noticed a little more patience in him. He's let A LOT of first pitch meatballs go lately, taking all the way...

So the Cubs should stop scoring on those days when they're knocking the crap out of the ball and save those runs for the days the wind is blowing in? No you just have to be more than 1-dimensional and be able to adjust to the pitcher and playing conditions, that's all. Not really, if that 1 dimension is SLG the team is set. Teams are going to get shut out by good pitching on occasion. I'll take a team who can slug and scores multiple runs on a given day over a team that is "muliti-dimensional" and who scores more frequently but, less/game. People lament the feast or famine, but it's better than small snack or famine everyday. You guys make it seem like I want to go all small ball, and that is not the case. I like dropping 6-8 runs on anybody. But when Brandon Webb or Johan come to town, I also like knowing that the Cubs aren't gonna pack it in because they can't hit homeruns. Right now in 2009, the Cubs aren't even slugging well. I'd like to go into the playoffs knowing the Cubs can score MANY ways rather than playing Dusty ball and waiting on the 3R homer... If the Cubs are HOT in October, everyone can come crucify me at will. History is on my side though.

So the Cubs should stop scoring on those days when they're knocking the crap out of the ball and save those runs for the days the wind is blowing in? No you just have to be more than 1-dimensional and be able to adjust to the pitcher and playing conditions, that's all.

I don't count them equally at all. Its not like the Cubs were better at NOT getting shutout, its the exact opposite. Out of those 14 teams, the Cubs were like 12th in being able to score 4 or more runs. They led the league simply because they had a stacked lineup that could put up 7+ on a consistent basis. Without stats and hefty analysis, most people who watched the majority of Cub games from 2007 until now can discern that the Cubs can struggle just as easily as anyone else because they 'clutch' fundamentals in close games. Yes, their high-dollar payroll got on base and slugged with the best of them, but they also got shut down nearly more than anyone else...

What happened to that scar tissue that supposedly broke away that made him all better? I'd like to see them DL him, but I'm not convinced it's health that is making him struggle. He's looked gimpy throughout his time on the Cubs. Even when he is rolling he appears one misstep away from snapping those skinny legs. Yea I dont know what happened with that scar tissue, but I know there was a game early last week that he seemed to start really favoring it again. Hes not healthy, and I really think his knee is stopping him from generating any power. Hell he hasnt hit a HR since the game in Cincy, he just seems to be fouling off alot of pitches hed normally crush, and then missing the sliders low and away. Then again hes even been striking out on weak fastballs too, so I dont know. I just know this is the longest slump hes been in, and hes limping around, so common sense to me says just DL him and get him fully healthy. Noone is running away with this division in the next 15 days. Yeah, Soriano's knee is hurting his offense and defense. He hobbles in the outfield (especially slowing up on the ball). Scary as it sounds, I think what has hurt Soriano most is laying off the first pitch. I know, I don't like the leadoff hitter (or any hitter for that matter) swinging at the first pitch. However Soriano's best hitting counts are 0-0 and 0-1 (usually get-me-over fastballs) where he's hitting up around .400. The guy is a fastball hitter, plain and simple. If he watches strike one, he's behind in the count and will fall victim to more breaking balls... Incidentally, his last home run in Cincy, was off the very first pitch of the AB...

Look, my argument has nothing to do with wins, or even run totals... I will not argue that teams are more likely to LOSE more games scoring 3R or less than they win. My point was to CONSISTENCY. I would define a consistent team as one who scores 4-7+ more often than it does not, because obviously, that is what will win you the most games, considering the stats that have been posted already... I have compiled a list of the Top 10 Offenses (Runs Scored) in the MLB for 2008, including the other 4 playoff teams that DID NOT make the Top 10 offensively... With each, is the number of games in which the team DID NOT score at least 4 runs, or by my definition, the model of consistency. Texas - 56 Boston - 56 Cub - 66 Minnesota - 59 Detroit - 60 CHW - 65 Cleveland - 64 (only 5 times shut out all 2008) NYM - 57 Phil - 59 NYY - 70 TB - 61 LAD - 73 Mil - 59 LAA - 59 As you can see, only 7 teams broke 60 games scoring 3 or less... Most stayed in the high 50's, and only 2 teams in the NL, Cubs and Dodgers, got into the 60's in 2008. This shows that the Cubs and Dodgers were MORE INCONSISTENT in scoring runs on a daily basis. That is, until the Dodgers acquired Manny (only 27 times after the All-star break). My argument is that the Cubs, when cold, as they are now, are ICE cold with no help from fundamentals and small ball. It also means, that when the wind isn't blowing out, they're gonna struggle scoring. When good pitchers come to town, they're gonna suffer. Call it 'Loser Ball' all you want, but then you shouldn't be allowed to discuss whether or not Soriano should be batting leadoff. My reason for posting wasn't to switch to all small ball, but it needs to be practiced and incorporated so the offense can adjust when the time comes. Its even more crucial when your most clutch and powerful hitter is sidelined 6-8 weeks... Didn't mean to ruffle feathers, but I think changing hitting coaches is what the Cubs have needed all along...

This has zero foundation, when swinging for the fences and bad pitches has led to more strikeouts, GIDP, and rally-killing pop-ups to foul territory have meant a consistently bad offense. When Derrek Lee leads off the inning with a single, and there is ZERO power threat behind him, you MUST do the little things to move him over and drive him in. Its as simple as that. We have a leadoff hitter that doesn't run. We have back-order hitters that can't get the bunt down. We have an entire lineup of guys who choke with a runner on third and less than 2 outs. Shorten up with 2 strikes and go the other way... Theriot just showed you that THAT wins ballgames.

Teams are going to do poorly overall when they score 3 runs or less. Let's look at two playoff teams last year, the Red Sox and the World Champion Phillies for evidence: 2008 W/L when scoring 3 runs or less for Boston: 10-45 2008 W/L when scoring 3 runs or less for Philadelphia: 12-47 Those are the only two I figured up, but I'd wager that most teams follow that lead. Combined playoff record for the two: 18-7, with the Phillies winning the World Series. I understand that team will lose MORE games when scores 3 or less, the point is that the Cubs did it 66 TIMES, compared to 55 and 59 for the Sox and Phillies... The Rays did it 61 times. You KNOW that that will be the case in the playoffs too when facing the likes of the Dodgers or Phillies staff. You either have to be HOT at the plate, which the Cubs weren't, or be practiced in small ball and manufacturing runs when you need to. The Cubs DON'T do it. That's why they can't get bunts down, move runners, or score runs on a CONSISTENT basis.

Really? You might want to check again, because looking at the stats, Theriot posted a .326 OBP in 2007. That's nowhere remotely close to "good". So you want to change the overall philosophy that led to the best offense in the league last season? That doesn't sound like a very good idea. A healthy dose of "small ball" is not going to jump start this offense. I'd be very curious to know how you would go about improving the hitting with RISP. Like you quoted, the Cubs had the MOST RUNS scored in 2008. However, they were one of the least consistent offenses going because on any given day they could put up 7+ (57 times!!!), and just as easily get shut out or held to one run (18 times, 0-18 record). They were barely above .500 on the road, and had a losing record against .500 or better ballclubs right up until mid to late September... You don't change the 'overall' philosophy but you can do things to increase 'contact' when RISP... You don't have to reach back for the 3R homer. Case in point, the Cubs won yesterday on 3 singles and being aggressive 1st to 3rd. Theriot shortened up and went the other way. You know Lowe, or Lincecum, or Santana, or Webb is on the mound and the wind is blowing in, yet the Cubs are hacking away and striking out swinging for Waveland... Play some small ball, and yes, the offense will get jump started. Do it in the early innings and set the tone. 16-50 is ATROCIOUS when scoring 3 or less and certainly won't win any games in October... But if you'd rather lead the world in 'Runs' in the regular season and get shutdown in the playoffs, go right ahead...

While Perry MAY have been instrumental in patience (i don't buy it), he wasn't very instrumental in key situational hitting. There are a couple problems with the Cubs right now, and it isn't patience. Even the hitters that are down around .220-.250 are still over .300 in OBP. They're taking walks. The lineups are incredibly inept at sacrificing, moving runners, baserunning and getting the all important hit with RISP. Some of this has to do with the lack of play calling from Piniella. I think Fukudome and Soto had more to do with the Cubs spike in OBP in 2008 than anything else. Theriot, Lee, and Ramirez were getting on base at good clips in 2007. However, under Perry, the Cubs have always been all-or-nothing slugging teams in the old AL mold. Yes, they scored the most runs in the NL, and won the most games, but they also were very weak against good pitchers who kept the ball in the park. They were 16-50 in 2008 when scoring 3R or less. They didn't do the little things (small ball) to win games against good pitching. Hence, they are 0-6 in 2 playoff appearances... I've been saying for a month now that Perry should be fired in lieu of Joshua just for the sake of trying to get his former pupils (Soto, Fontenot, Theriot) back in line. He may even be able to help Bradley.

Fukudome was batting .296 as late as June 9th, or less than a week ago... Its still a little early in the season, and his latest 0-18 has brought his average down 30 points... It isn't time to panic yet... A 3-4 day brings him back up 10 points. As the season progresses, diminshing returns will make it harder to get his average back up.

Switch to DISH and get CSN Chicago... I avoid Comcast like the PLAGUE now... I'm from Brownsburg BTW...