Cubzfan64

It isn't just Hendry - it seems like it's generally been an organizational thing for the Cubs to buy high and sell low - it probably has alot to do with why they haven't put together any semblence of a contender year in and year out. I was all for trading Dempster already a few weeks ago - he doesn't have all that much value, but with pitching seemingly really thin all around the majors this year, I'd do it in a heartbeat if it improves the team for next year and/or the years beyond. My biggest question now though is... does anyone trust the organization to make a GOOD deal if they decide to shop Dempster? I hate to say it, but I don't :(

Rusch came over to Chicago for the 2004 season and inexplicably pitched "reasonably" well for us. A smart, crafty GM would have looked at Rusch's 2004 results, compared them to his past averages and realized he had someone who performed above expectations and that the odds were STRONGLY in favor of Glendon reverting back to his form of giving up tons of hits - especially HR's. I've said it before and I'll say it again now - the Cubs have a terrible tendancy to pick up "has beens", injured "project" guys, journeymen players etc... and if they're lucky enough that one of them plays over his head and increases his value, instead of trading them we have this silly belief that they've "turned a corner" or all of a sudden become star quality players and we sign them up expecting them to keep performing at that level. Inevitably they revert back to what they used to be and we end up releasing them and getting nothing for them. This organization really needs to have some people in charge who know how to evaluate talent and understand the concept of selling high and buying low.

Ordonez's contract is a 5 year one I believe, for way too much money. A guy with mysterious injuries for a 5 year committment is a terrible idea. I didn't realize it was for that long - if that's the case, then unfortunately I guess I agree :-(. For the most part, I really don't mind paying guys a fortune on a 1-2 year contract, or better yet make it an incentive laden one. Thanks for the info.

I've reached the point of my Cubfan life where I really don't care so much about good/bad contracts (as long as they are not long extended ones) - 35+ years of watching losing will do that I suppose. I'm not saying we need to be the Yankees, but we have the $ to be putting a better product on the field than we've seen the past two years.

Magglio Ordonez sure would look nice in RF this year :-( He really looks like he's back in top form!

We both agree that Pierre has to get on base more, but as far as Youkilis goes, he was shoved into the position of being a leadoff hitter when Crisp went down and other than striking out too often and having little speed, he's done exactly what's been asked of him. As far as Ortiz and Manny are concerned, neither of them are setting the world on fire right now. Manny has been pretty much equivalent to our own A Ramirez and although Ortiz has plenty of RBI's which is great, his average isn't where it should be either. Manny has been significantly better than Aramis thus far. I guess it's up to personal opinion as to what "significant" means. A Ram - 25 R, 9 HR, 24 RBI M Ram - 27 R, 11 HR, 29 RBI Considering one plays for a 2nd to last place team and the other plays for a 1st place team, Manny doesn't qualify as being "significantly" better in my book.

We both agree that Pierre has to get on base more, but as far as Youkilis goes, he was shoved into the position of being a leadoff hitter when Crisp went down and other than striking out too often and having little speed, he's done exactly what's been asked of him. As far as Ortiz and Manny are concerned, neither of them are setting the world on fire right now. Manny has been pretty much equivalent to our own A Ramirez and although Ortiz has plenty of RBI's which is great, his average isn't where it should be either.

oops - sorry - mistype

6'1" and 220 is a fatty?? Personally I think the Cubs could do well with players like Youkilis on the team!! The guy knows how to get on base, has some power and can drive the ball to all parts of the park. He's only 27, gets paid 350K and moved from 3B to 1B when Boston got Lowell and has done an excelent job there defensively. He can play 1B, 3B as well as LF. I'd take him on my team anytime!

Everyting in life is relative. Player X's trade value is relative to any number of factors that can include among other things: Salary Need of other teams Other player(s) traded with him Timing Player(s) from other team who are offered Written another way, Freddy Bynum has trade value if he's traded for a low level prospect with no future and the Cubs pay all his salary. To say that this player or that player has no value is tottally false. Where did I say any of our players have "no" value? I totally agree with what you said and I'm sure we could find GM's to take all of our guys for the right price, the problem is that isn't a way to put together a contending team - always trading from a defensive position and getting less in return than what we give away is a sure way to fail. All I was trying to say is that we have a very limited # of guys who could bring us back legitimate talent in return should they be traded. We're in a very very bad position right now!

I've been saying the same things you said neely since we started playing crappy. All those folks who suggest ridiculous trades fail to put themselves in the other GM's shoes. There isn't any GM out there who would want or give up any talent for most of our castoffs. We made a serious yet typical Cub mistake when Rusch has his successful season(s) with us and we once again believed that somehow all of his past history of mediocre pitching and giving up lots of HR's was behind him finally - we lost the window of opportunity to trade him when his value was higher for something worthwhile. We lost those same opportunities with guys like CPatt, Rich Hill, Matt Clement, and we're doing it again in my opinion with Dempster and might be overestimating Marshall as well. The ONLY players an opposing GM would be willing to give up impact talent for are probably Barrett, Lee, Zambrano, Ramirez, and maybe Howry or Eyre since decent set up men are so hard to find. They may not agree to a trade, but if I were them I'd want to get off this sickening ride asap so I'd be approaching guys like Wood and Maddux as well since pitching is always in short supply and needed by contenders. If we don't start rebuilding this team and "pretend" we're still just a move or two away from winning it all, the Cubs will continue floundering year after year. I'm thoroughly disgusted with some of our guys who just aren't stepping up and playing better, but I'm way more disgusted with the organization's lack of stressing plate discipline - aggressiveness is wonderful, but the key is to be aggressive within the strikezone and learning the ability to swing at the pitch you've forced the pitcher to throw by being disciplined. The 2006 Cubs are an absolute mess and I see and hear nothing that gives me much hope for this year. Personally I'd like to see Hendry and Baker go because I'm afraid if that doesn't happen we'll continue to get more of the same type of players and continue to get more of what we've seen the last few years.

And what's really sickening is: 1) Our team is lousy 2) Every other team in the ML knows the Cubs suck this year 3) The Cubs may be feeling some "desperation" to salvage the season 4) We have alot of guys performing well below expectations. Add all those things together and any trades we can make between now and the deadline will have us in the position of bending over, unless we can pry some young talent from some contenders but does anyone here really believe our leaders are capable of evaluating young talent and making some wise moves? I know I'm not. This is going from bleak to horrendous in a real hurry.

I could even live with it if I knew we were in some kind of "rebuilding" mode, but I don't see any hope of that either. In addition to fielding a really lousy team, we have to hear how Hendry and Baker are in line to be signed to extensions and you get this sick feeling in your mind that Pierre will be resigned. This is just a really bad organization right now - as someone else said, this reminds me too terribly much of the mid 70's teams that were fielded with has beens and wanna be's. I'm thoroughly disgusted.

Well, if it follows typical Cub history, we'll finally trade him once his value is at an all time low as a prospect, get nothing for him in return. Once again, I have 0% faith in our organizations ability to evaluate young talent.

If you have never seen it before, take a look at Retrosheet.org. It's a compilation of every major league boxscore from the last 100 years or so. The ability to find a game you're looking for is extremely simple - I was able to find the boxscore for the first Cubs game I ever attended in 1979 in about 2 minutes just by remembering a couple events and looking up the players involved. Just wanted to pass the site along.

They've been losing outfielders like crazy as well as a relief pitcher (Sturtze), and they have issues with their starters as well. I know little about their team or especially their minor leagues although I've heard it's been pretty depleted in the last few years. That said, do you think they may be potential trade partners with the Cubs by the All Star break if our guys don't get their acts together? For those of you who know alot more about players than I do, are there any trade options you think are workable that could help us for 2007 and beyond? Thanks

And the sad thing is that if we continue to follow the offensive strategies from the past 2 seasons, it will only be a matter of luck if we ever reach the playoffs.

He'll probably trade the wrong guys....probably start with Walker. I don't have a problem trading Walker. He's a FA at season's end, so if we're not contending, he should be traded...as should Maddux, Hairston, Pierre, Mabry, Blanco and anyone else not signed beyond this season. I agree with you Vance - I just wish I had confidence that the Cubs would get good value in return. I have very little faith in the evaluation of young ballplayers by our staff. I guess time will tell, but this sinking ship is taking on water quickly.

Apathy is sadly a word that fits my feelings exactly. I'm not even mad anymore at the organization, players or manager - I'm apathetic and disappointed. There isn't a single player on this team or in this organization that I would consider an untouchable as far as trades go - the sad thing is that I've lost trust in Hendry to make moves that upgrade our team. I simply don't trust his judgement in ballplayers much anymore. I don't like the direction the organization takes in regards to the total lack of plate discipline stressed and I question how we develop our young pitchers given so many of the injuries we keep seeing over and over. I used to think that the Cubs being run as a business to make the most profit possible would keep them from ever winning the WS - I still think that's a part of the equation, but we have a reasonably respectable team salary - it's just not being spent wisely. I have a feeling the only way I'll ever see a Cubs WS is if we get lucky some season and have 3-5 guys play way over their heads all year long. Man what I wouldn't give to be able to cheer for a team that contends for the division lead year in and year out.

And yet Hendry gets an extension... It's truly embarrasing to have this high of a payroll, but put this kind of product on the field. "and the beat goes on..."

Watching the Red Sox vs. Orioles game tonight - bottom of 6th inning, Sox tied it at 3-3 and have a runner on 2nd with 2 out. Youkalis (I wish the Cubs could have gotten him in a trade a season or two ago), gets down 0-2, then watches 3 balls, fouls off a pitch and takes ball 4 to get on base (I think he's at ~.450 obp now). Loretta is up, he's been struggling, Orioles have no left hander up in the bullpen so he knows if he can get on base, Ortiz will get a shot. Mora is playing WAYYY back at 3B so Loretta drops down a bunt - it's actually a pop up that lands half way to 3B, but because Mora is so far back he makes it safe to 1B to load em up for Ortiz. Ortiz works the count a bit and then delivers a 2 out, bases clearing double to the OPPOSITE field. Red Sox end up winning 6-3. I'm not a Sox fan, but it sure is a change watching a team play smart baseball, work the odds in their favor and do the little things that win you ball games. Oh - just as an aside, I saw Corey Patterson come up to bat and look just like the old Corey. Letting good pitches go by, swinging and missing pitches at eye level and upper cutting everything. I don't recall exactly what he did, but I think he SO once and popped up twice. Some things never change.

Scott: I can see where you're coming from with your comments but I guess we'll just have to disagree on how much stock can be put into the statistics. You just put significantly more into it than I do. If you sit back and look at what you just said here, it really contradicts your whole premise that the Cubs have a chance in 2006 doesn't it? I mean if based on previous years performances we can accurately predict the division winners, then why play the games? I honestly think you're using logic to try to make sense of something and make accurate predictions in regards to something (baseball) that in many ways defies logic. There's only so much you can do with statistics and I think you're trying to do too much. Hard to argue too much with a Cub fan who's optimistic though - I tip my hat to you there :-)

Scott, I appreciate that you're trying to give a sense of hope for the Cubs for the year 2006, but your idea of regressing to a mean just doesn't work here - there's just way too many variables to do a kind of statistical analysis on something like baseball the way one would control chart the diameter of a widget manufactured at ACME widgets. Let me take a stab at what I think you're implying... The winning percentages of each team in baseball can be plotted daily, and although I haven't done it, you should be correct that it would look like a gaussian (or bell shaped) curve with the mean being 0.500 (afterall, for each win, someone has to lose). I think what you're saying is that it's still early in the season, and that gaussian curve may be quite wide because of such a small set of win/loss data. As the season progresses, the curve should start narrowing with the tails of the distribution coming closer and closer to the mean value. That's about all you can say statistically about baseball and win/loss percentages. The problem with your theory is that no matter what the width of that bell shaped curve is, there has to ALWAYS be teams at the edges, and those teams of course end up being the worst teams in the league on one end, and the best on the other. To have the best statistical chance of winning it all year in and year out, your team needs to always end up on the high tail of the curve - it doesn't mean you'll always win a WS of course, but it gives you the best chance. It would take all day to list all the factors and variables that go into the "process" of baseball, and once you're done listing them you would easily see why the idea of "regressing to a mean" isn't really something to tie too much hope on. I've always thought it was ironic that a sport that is SO full of statistics, where everything is documented, measured, compared, etc... that the game of baseball is impossible to statistically predict to any decent degree of accuracy.

There's a Boston sports talk show guy who's been actively trying to get all the fans at the first game Damon appears in back here to turn around and moon him. His belief is that if everyone does it, they won't arrest everyone! I doubt it will happen, but it would make for an amusing story in the paper if some people will do it!

I remember that very well as well. I was 11 at the time and about 2 years into becoming a huge Cub fan thanks to a love of baseball, summers and WGN. I always liked Rick Monday - I remember writing his name in black marker on my first ever baseball glove :)