jjgman21

SOMEONE GOT MY SCREEN NAME RIGHT!!!!

It's not ridiculous. Pierre to Soriano for 526 outs = + 30 runs Pierre to JD Drew for (120/162)*526 outs = + 37 runs Sure, there is a margin for error. Like some of those displaced outs from Drew having a higher OBP going to scrubs like Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Regardless, at the worst Drew for 120 games is the same as Soriano for 162 games. And the assumption of Pie = Pierre what numbers are you using? last year? career? three year? which ever makes your point stronger? ??

I know (well, I've heard) that baseball is flush with cash, but anyone else see the scouting and player development budget slashed to zero and money for draft pick signings drying up after this offseason?

averaged his 2005 MLE EqA, 2006 MLE EqA and 2007 PECOTA projection (last years pecotas) and those figures were {.265,.244,.257} respectively, which average to .255 which was basically what we got from Pierre last season. (Actually it's higher but I didn't bother saying that) I think thats a wonderful job of using all the information that is available...I knew you wouldn't let me down when I made that claim! never mind that his numbers were not what I was referring to. see page 56.

because he was a .300 hitter in 2004 and 2005 and he had a finger injury in 2006 that made him suck. hes not great, but he's not terrible. in a perfect world it would be trade eyre and izturis for coco and sign lugo forgetting about soriano. again living in a vacuum. No Boston outfielder goes anywhere until another outfielder is signed.

you may have wanted to hold onto that before KC's posts about Pie. Im not sure what KC used for Pie's numbers if by chance Drew did go down for 40 or how many ever games, but I'm guessing he used MLE. KC, can you expound? I wasn't talking about the numbers. I was talking about his assertion that 40 games in the majors before he is ready won't hurt his development.

Pending a physical Soriano is a Cub. 8 years for 136 looks to be the maximum years/money. Rumors around that the last 2-3 years might be option years (no idea whose) and that approx 90 mil is guaranteed. Everybody who doesn't like the signing is negative and Jim Hendry just can't get the props he deserves. Everybody who does like the signing doesn't understand statistics or finances and needs 10 more years of school. I'm bitter and sarcastic (for the last few comments at least) what about those of us who don't like the terms but like the signing anyway? :shock: :shock: You and I AGREE ON SOMETHING? we've agreed on a few other things. it just took me weeks to convince you I was right. :lol:

outstanding post.

Pending a physical Soriano is a Cub. 8 years for 136 looks to be the maximum years/money. Rumors around that the last 2-3 years might be option years (no idea whose) and that approx 90 mil is guaranteed. Everybody who doesn't like the signing is negative and Jim Hendry just can't get the props he deserves. Everybody who does like the signing doesn't understand statistics or finances and needs 10 more years of school. I'm bitter and sarcastic (for the last few comments at least) what about those of us who don't like the terms but like the signing anyway?

It was only copy/paste, had this come later in the week when boredom had fully set in though..... Ha, that's where we differ. I'm bored already. I'm hoping for more Cubs moves this week to keep me occupied. ;) Correctamundo. More Cubs moves, please. its like fricken heroine.

I don't think so. for new comers to the thread, I don't think any details have been released. heck, I don't know that any official sources have even confirmed the deal yet.

you may have wanted to hold onto that before KC's posts about Pie.

as much as I don't like the terms, this is an excellent post. the Cubs are now in the drivers seat and able to do some cherry picking. Soriano in center and Craig Wilson platooning with Jones anybody?

A long time of extended play in the majors getting his feet wet for 40 games isnt going to kill his development. Now riding the pine here? that's different. neither of us knows for sure whether it will or not. you however are willing to say definitively that it won't, which is arrogant. I on the other hand think it might, and don't think bringing him up before he is ready is a good idea under any circumstances.

It's not ridiculous. Pierre to Soriano for 526 outs = + 30 runs Pierre to JD Drew for (120/162)*526 outs = + 37 runs Sure, there is a margin for error. Like some of those displaced outs from Drew having a higher OBP going to scrubs like Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Regardless, at the worst Drew for 120 games is the same as Soriano for 162 games. And the assumption of Pie = Pierre what numbers are you using? last year? career? three year? which ever makes your point stronger?

not really because it's an injury, meaning continuous playing time. Not the disjointed crap Murton and Cedeno got in 2005.[/b] I see your point, but bringing up a player before he is ready can and does usually hurt the players development, regardless of whether he gets steady PT or not. Pie hasn't learned to hit AAA sliders yet, sticking him in a position where he has to hit NL sliders? you would have been better served using Pagan in your hypo. not that I agree it is necessarily true.

does anyone realize that would trash Pie's development completely? did anyone contemplate that maybe this strong push for Soriano was due to Drew's demands shooting up considerably the past few days?

Excellent!! not excellent. there are varying degrees of opinions on every transaction. I hate the signing and am arguing as vigorously as anyone in defense of Hendry. every transaction is going to be criticized. I remember on the espn board people complaining about letting Bobby Hill go for that lazy bum Ramirez.

A) please fix the quotes because you accidentally deleted one of the end quotes to make it look like I said something you said. B)Obviously if you sign lugo for short you will trade izturis. And supposedly there is a market for izturis (Boston, Cleveland) or to at least get rid of him for nothing (see AGonz signing with the reds). C) KC has made the lugo example, but I think it is more to illustrate the fact that the money was spent completely inappropriately, not that hes specifically advocating signing lugo. I think he used lugo to prove that a cheaper addition at a position that was worse for the cubs in 2006 could improve the team just as much as signing Soriano. But you would have to ask him that. sorry about the quotes, but I'm not going to fix them. I don't even know what page they are on. the problem with the suggestion of trading Izturis is, again, viewing things in a vacuum. you sign Lugo, everyone knows you are desperate to dump Izturis. Boston and Toronto could get by with what they had and just wait for him to be released if they want him and the Cubs would be paying Izturis to play for a different team. other than that, I don't know of a market for him (why would Cleveland want Izturis?) I don't disagree that the money was spent inappropriately. I hate the years that have been rumored. but again, viewing things in a vacuum. we simply don't have enough information to determine how inappropriate it is. the harsh critics just assume they know what could have been done and state it as fact to make their case.

how long will it take people to realize this isn't an argument saying that lugo is a better offensive player than soriano? i think ive addressed that 10 times in the past hour. once again, that's irrelavent. I think you have to acknowledge that it is highly unlikely that the Cubs have that low of production again out of the SS position--just with Izturis' career averages (I know, I know, they aren't that good) bringing up Cedeno's awful numbers. Plus, we don't know if they plan on playing Theriot at short some either. agreed. that's just more viewing things in a vacuum to make a point.

And we know that Hendry was close to losing Aramis how?About three or four more hours and Ramirez would have either signed for at least $20 million more than what Hendry offered or would be considering multiple offers for even more money. Ramirez and his agent knew that Hendry was significantly low-balling Aramis in terms of market value. Even at the very end Jim didn't bump up his price that much. I'd give more credit to Ramirez for staying than for Hendry keeping him. Of course, because Lord knows some people around here would rather walk on a bed of hot nails than give Hendry any credit. Hendry got lucky. Big time. All he had to do was throw in some more cash, probably as little as $1 million a year, and Ramirez doesn't wait until Sunday to sign. Yet he decided to take a huge gamble. It was not a good strategy. again, the armchair GM'ing. we have no idea what happened during the course of those negotiations. for all we know, the deal was in place for days and only took until Sunday due to logistical reasons.

Unfortunately, Drew would have a plus glove in CF, whereas we feel we have to play Soriano in RF, which makes his production worth less relative to the rest of the league. as I stated earlier in the thread, that is a fallacy. it's not 1982 with slap hitting centerfielders anymore guys.

you just completely contradicted yourself. You say that you aren't missing KC's point, but then ask if I am arguing that lugo will outperform soriano. The arguement is that Lugo over cubs 2006 SS = Sori over cubs 2006 CF. Not that Lugo is better than Soriano. you completely make my point. it shouldn't be about having nice sabr stats compared over the course of two season, viewed in isolation because it is aesthetically pleasing. it should be about making the team better as a whole. I wouldn't have minded signing Lugo, but you have to keep in mind that the cost of Lugo at short is about 13M. 8+ for Lugo and 4+ for Izturis. not sure if you've noticed or not, but it doesn't seem like anyone is banging down the doors to take Izturis off the Cubs hands. fine way to build a ballclub there. that's what I am saying about viewing things in a vacuum. "should have signed Lugo" without any consideration that would mean a 4 million dollar shortstop riding the pines or being released. the complaint her is money for production, and you guys aren't taking all the money into account. you just assume it will disappear in the wind somewhere.

shall we ignore the fact that the supposed better alternative has an anomalous OBP year inflating his OBP? don't by it all you want, but the difference between Lugo's career OBP and Soriano's career OBP translates to about 10 additional times on base over the course of a 700 AB season. with 1/4 the power. the point about him leading off I have no argument with. you will find me over and over in these threads saying he shouldn't bat leadoff. hopefully Lou will make a change if the OBP takes a plummet.

emphasis added. I love the arm chair quarterbacking of GMs. noboday has any idea whatsoever of what happens in these negotiations, yet people presume they know what probably could have happened. Agreed. Ok, then I GUARANTEE Lugo signs for less than 67M. You are obviously missing KC's point. not at all. I can perfectly see how this deal has zero appeal if viewed completely in a vacuum. are you seriously arguing that Lugo will outperform Soriano? do we really know what Drew and Lee will sign for?