Amazing_Grace

Minor nitpick: Edmonds just turned 38 a little less than a month ago. He's not 39. How do you handle the PT if Bradley was acquired? I'd probably play Johnson/Bradley/Soriano against lefties. None of our LH hitters is doing all that well against LHP. Against the rest, I'd probably do Edmonds 3/4 of the games in CF with MB 1/4, and the same for Kosuke in right. Soriano doesn't tend to take many days off, but Bradley could play there too. If the Cubs managed to get to the WS, I'd rather have Bradley DHing than Reed Johnson or Daryle Ward. Bradley's health might not allow him to play CF everyday, but based on the speed he shows running the base, I think he'd be adequate there on a part time basis given that he knows the position. He might be able to handle RF everyday if Kosuke moved to CF, but that's something I wouldn't worry about until the offseason unless Edmonds completely drops off a cliff. I would think, given that we're championship contenders, that nobody would complain too much about PT. That's the sort of thing that happens a lot more on bad teams. Bradley's not under contract past this year, and he's playing for a team that's way out of the race. He can always accept half a season of being a part time player, then go back and DH next year, or we can keep him and move Kosuke to CF (he'll end up there eventually just like Ichiro did) in the offseason. I think the Cubs are forced to move Kosuke to CF in the offseason because he just doesn't have any power at a power position and it's not that hard to find offense at RF. It's very hard to find offense in CF.

At this point I'm concerned. Rookies will always have their struggles, but this one is getting to be an awfully long drought. Hopefully he will rebound and adjust. It's a process all rookie players go through. It's way too early to write him off, but it's probably time to move him back down in the order. When Soriano's back, I'd like to see Johnson/DeRosa get some of the ABs in RF. Really, this is another good reason to take a look at Milton Bradley. He's not under contract past this season, and he has always hit well. With Kosuke's recent struggles and Edmonds being 39, I think the Cubs need more insurance than Reed Johnson and Micah Hoffpauir.

If I had to guess, I'd say Philly prefers a warm body who can give you a chance every 5th day, and doesn't want to take the risk that a guy would break down. They are willing to go toe-to-toe with lineups, and just want their pitchers to keep them in games - kind of like when Hendry was hot after Lilly and Marquis. That's probably a big part of it. Philly's offense can be scary good at times. I'm still surprised. If this is an indication of the market for starting pitching, then I'm glad we stayed away from Burnett and Bedard. Despite the fact that Harden's trade value is much higher now than last offseason, it's still something of a "buy low" situation since you're getting a player whose talent level is far higher than his price due to the injury issues. At least if Harden is healthy, he'll be better than what we have. This deal makes the Harden deal look a lot better.

I've got to believe that either Philly was not interested in Harden, or Oakland places a lot of value on prospects with ML experience. It sure looks to me like they gave up more than we did for a much lesser talent. Maybe Beane really liked the players he got from us, but it seems really odd that Joe Blanton got more talent than Harden did.

With the acquisition of Gaudin (Harden has no bearing on what the Cubs will do with Dempster), I think it's more likely that the Cubs are prepared to let Dempster walk after the yr, and grab a couple of draft picks. If the Cubs trade Marquis and do indeed let Dempster walk (I love Dempster, but I rather acquire draft picks to continue to stockpile the system), then the Cubs could feesible go into next season with Hill/Marshall/Gaudin/Veal/Shark fighting out for the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. IMO, Gaudin makes it likely that Dempster won't be back in 2009. I don't think there was ever much of a chance for Dempster to be back in 09 regardless. If he continues to post the numbers he has, he'll be more expensive than the Cubs will want to spend on a starter who might have had a fluke season (Shawn Estes anyone). If he doesn't, we'll be glad to be rid of his salary, and give someone younger a shot. Wood's resigning will almost certainly take priority because of his popularity, and Hendry will feel he owes the guy a good deal after he took less money to stay in Chicago. By the offseason, or sometime during next year, Veal and Samardzija, assuming they aren't dealt or have injury setbacks, will probably be in the picture. Z, Lilly, and Harden will be the top 3 if they're healthy. That leaves Hill, Marshall, Gaudin, Veal, Samardzija, and possibly Leiber (he would be fairly cheap to hang onto) to fill two spots. The only way I see Dempster back is if A) the Cubs win the series, Dempster is a major player, and the team is held together at any cost by the new ownership, who for PR reasons, will pretty much have to do just that; or B) Harden goes down with a serious injury that projects to keep him out through part of next season and whoever replaces him does poorly.

It's like you type what we all are thinking 8-) Though, IMO, Hendry was using the Gallagher "untouchable" label at the beginning of the negotiations just to make him more appealing to Beane when we decided to "actually" make him available. If i'm Hendry, I know once I "budge" on Gallagher it's less likely Beane would ask for more players on top of that since you've already and made a player available to him that he thought he wouldn't originally get. At least that's what I would have done. Am I the only one who thinks Gaudin is undervalued as well? This guy broke into the majors at 19. How many pitchers made their ML debuts before turning 20 over the last 20 years? How many did that and didn't have arm problems before they were 25? This guys got good stuff, still has a couple of years before he hits his physical peak years, is still learning how to pitch despite having more experience than most other 25 year old pitchers, can work out of the pen or start, and knows that Lou hates walks :) . People keep looking at Gaudin as a decent swing man, an insurance policy in case Hardin goes down. I look at getting him in the deal not as an insurance policy, but a coup. I could see Gaudin being the "Matt Clement" of this trade, if he gets a chance to start. Everyone in Oakland including Gaudin himself thought that he was going to get a rotation spot when Harden was dealt. Whether he actually gets that chance is an open question. The back of the Cubs rotation is still pretty crowded with Marshall and Marquis both possibly ahead of him. If Harden stays healthy for the next 2 weeks, I'd look for Marquis to be dealt. It's no secret that Marquis isn't Lou's favorite guy, and this would leave room for one of Gaudin/Marshall to fill his spot, and there's also the slim chance that Hill gets back to the majors in September. What has gotten lost in the analysis of this trade is that the Cubs sent one ML starter to Oakland and got two ML starters back. The Cubs added some depth to a team that already had great pitching depth. Leiber, Marshall, and Gaudin would all be starting for a lot of teams. Hendry has learned the lessons taught by the Prior/Wood fiasco. You can't have too much pitching, and if a guy has injury problems, you'd better have a backup plan.

Refer to Raw's post about IsoP. Greene's OBP sucks because his AVG sucks and his AVG sucks because he's a flyball hitter in Petco. He's had some good and bad years in terms of IsoD. The case can be made that Greene should be a better hitter for another team. The case can also be made that he is what he is, a guy who will hit for above average power but struggle to keep his OBP above .320.

I'd like to see what it would take to get Milton Bradley from Texas. He can play LF until Soriano returns, probably mid-August, then you can wrestle with the question of whether Bradley can play CF, and/or whether to move Kosuke to CF based on how well Edmonds is continuing to hit. I'm glad Edmonds has done well, but I wouldn't bet the Cubs best chance at a WS for the past 25 years on a 39 year old's ability to hit like he was still 32. If I had the chance to deal Marquis and acquire another SP at reasonable cost, I'd consider it. It's a 50/50 proposition whether Harden can stay healthy, if not worse. Marquis always collapses in the 2nd half. Hill looks like he may come back, but probably not this year. Finally, there's no guarantee Dempster will continue to defy all conventional wisdom and previous statistical data that suggest he's not this good.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't Theriot started hitting horribly everytime he's been moved into the leadoff spot. This was tried a few times last year and it didn't work. It didn't work when it was tried earlier this year. Theriot has been a very pleasant surprise and is giving great production considering what he's being paid and the position he plays. Still, there's no way I'd move Soriano out of the spot where he feels most comfortable in order to put Theriot at leadoff. His numbers don't justify getting more ABs than anyone else on the team. I would do Soriano/Fukudome in either order one and two, but I'd lean towards putting Soriano at leadoff because he's always hit better there. I like Theriot as an 8 hitter. He's smart enough and patient enough to do well with the pitcher hitting behind him. Free swingers will get themselves out a lot in the 8 hole swinging at bad pitches. Also, his speed makes it a lot easier for him to be bunted over, and the SB is probably more useful here than anywhere else in the lineup.

Honestly, the lack of OBP is a huge concern. We all know Petco is the best pitchers park but I don't see how it makes a guy less patient or a pitcher throw more strikes. Greene isn't doing any better on the road, and that really shouldn't shock anyone, because patience works everywhere, regardless of how far the fence is from home plate, and impatience makes you an easier out. A strikeout is the same anywhere. I remember a lot of speculation about how much better Alex Gonzalez would be coming over from Toronto, another good pitchers park. He was an impatient hitter, great glove, too. People speculated he'd hit 25-30 HR at Wrigley and be an .800 OPS guy. He proceeded to put up two unspectacular years with an OBPs of .312 and .295, with OPS of .737 and .704, hitting 20 and 18 HR. If you consider that OBP is the more important component of OPS, then it makes his offense look that much worse. I think we've been down this road before and we ought to know where it leads.

I think the logic of the Harden deal from the Cubs perspective is this. We know Sabathia is gone, so with that known, our realistic options are now 1 guy having a lights out season who might get injured, 2 guys who are proven but having awful years, 1 of whom has a long injury history himself (Burnett), and the other of whom has mental makeup questions (Bedard). There's no question leaving health aside, Harden is the best player. His health concerns are well known and that's driving the price way down, so I can get a much better player for the same cost as a lesser player, if I assume a risk. Nevertheless, if I trade Gallagher, then Harden gets hurt, I'm looking stupid for making this trade and really missing the guy I traded, I can't do it. I have to have some insurance for a possible injury given who I'm acquiring. So, Beane comes back offering Gaudin. Now I can include Gallagher because I'm getting a guy back who's probably no worse than Sean at least this season. If Harden does get hurt, I'm no worse off than I started at the ML level, and we were already winning the division. From Beane's perspective, I need to deal Harden before he breaks. It could happen anytime and I'm not likely to do much better in 3 weeks than I am now if he doesnt get hurt, because the history is still there. I have a small budget so I need young players who will be cheap for several years, preferably some who are ML ready. I know I want Gallagher, but Hendry won't deal him because Sean is his best 6th starter in case Harden or someone else gets hurt, and I can't blame him for being concerned about that. I have a 6th starter too, Chad Gaudin, who is closer to arbritration/FA than Gallagher is, but who will probably look like a suitable replacement for Gallagher for this season, which is what the Cubs are concerned with. I can also expect to get maybe one or two more players than I would have if he weren't included. Gaudin is the player that makes the deal work. Without him, I don't think it happens, or at least doesn't happen for another couple weeks. It makes sense for the A's to include him even though he is a comparable player to Sean because he's closer to FA, and they can ask for one or two more guys that will be cheap for many years. I think this was a good deal for both teams. I think that if Harden does stay healthy, it will look like the A's got robbed, but the Cubs were willing to take the risk and others possibly were not, so they get to reap the rewards if the gamble pays off. The A's got several serviceable young players and a decent prospect regardless of what happens from here on out, so they cut their risk. Did the Cubs "react" to the Sabathia deal? In a sense yes, because they weren't going to move in the SP market while there was still a chance that the talks with the Brewers fell through and C.C. could fall in their lap. He was clearly the best player. Once he was gone, there was no reason not to pursue the other options out there to their conclusion.

I'll grant that he's put together a good team this season, and we did make the playoffs last season. Still, let's not forget that this is after having Piniella negate most of the moves he made over the previous season (benched Izturis, benched Jones then moved him to CF, moved Theriot back to SS, mostly benched Scott Eyre), and do a much better job handling the starting pitching staff with regards to pitch counts, and changed the hitting philosophy from swing at everything to work the count. So, he gets some credit, but not as much as I give Piniella or frankly, the Trib and whoever the owner is now, who gave Hendry the money to buy his way out of his, and Dusty's, mistakes. I do forgive him a lot of what happened in 05-06 with the turnaround the past two seasons. Hendry has always struck me as the sort of GM that gives his managers what they want, to the extent that he can. What Dusty wanted was awful, so the team was awful. What Lou wants is much better, so Hendry suddenly appears to be a much better GM. My opinion of him has improved a lot the past season and a half because I've come to believe that Hendry wasn't as much of the problem as Dusty was, and Hendry's main mistake was hiring possibly the worst manager in baseball then giving him too much influence over how the team was set up. Hiring Dusty is the mistake that I'll hold against Jim, and not firing him while he continued to mess up our young players and abuse Z's arm in 06 is still a complete mystery to me. I'm off the fire Hendry bandwagon, but I'm not calling him GM of the year either. Now, if the Cubs win a WS, then all is forgiven and he can stay GM for as long as he wants no matter how awful the team is.

I'm shocked none of who we thought were our best trading chips were in this deal. No Rich Hill, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall, or Felix Pie. Donaldson is too low in the system to know much about, and he has Soto blocking him for a good 4-7 years anyway. Murton has no position on this team. I think EPatt will be a decent hitter, but he wasn't going to be much of a factor this season, and his defense has been pretty bad. I liked Gallagher, but not enough to miss a chance to upgrade this team for the playoffs. Really, none of these guys projects to be a superstar and Oakland sent us back another young pitcher as well, so this has to be considered a good trade. Moreover, if Hill can go back to being something like 2007 Rich Hill and Harden can stay healthy, the rotation could be not just good this year, but lethal over the next few years.

I'm not sure I'd make that trade off, and Pie being an outstanding defender while Patterson is below average makes it easier. I'd probably take Pie with a .300/.400 OBP/SLG over Patterson hitting .350/.400. It's kind of a judgement call. I assume you meant to write .350/.400 Patterson and .300/.500 Pie. I'm never sure how to value defense. It's sort of an intangible, and we really don't know how bad/good Patterson would be as a CF. We just know he's not great at 2b. Of Patterson and Pie, I wonder who has more value in the eyes of other teams? I'd probably trade whichever one would get me the frontline starter we need in any case. No, I meant a .400 SLG for Pie. He's really as good as it gets defensively, enough to make up for that OBP discrepancy. That said, if trading Patterson gets Randy Wolf, and Pie gets Burnett/Harden/Sabathia, it's a much different decision. What stats are good measures of defense and how do you compare them with offensive stats, or is it simply a matter of judgement? I ask because I'm curious. You guys know a lot more about stats than I do so maybe I'm missing something.

I'm not sure I'd make that trade off, and Pie being an outstanding defender while Patterson is below average makes it easier. I'd probably take Pie with a .300/.400 OBP/SLG over Patterson hitting .350/.400. It's kind of a judgement call. I assume you meant to write .350/.400 Patterson and .300/.500 Pie. I'm never sure how to value defense. It's sort of an intangible, and we really don't know how bad/good Patterson would be as a CF. We just know he's not great at 2b. Of Patterson and Pie, I wonder who has more value in the eyes of other teams? I'd probably trade whichever one would get me the frontline starter we need in any case.

I've always viewed EPatt as a potential starter at the MLB level. He's not going to be a superstar. But a .750 to .780 OPS with an OBP around .350 is a good level for a starter at a defensive position for most baseball teams. I see EPatt as possibly a DeJesus/Lofton type player. I think people forget that the most important skill a baseball player can have is the ability to not make outs. I'd rather have EPatt with a .340 OBP and .400 SLG than Pie with a .300 OBP and .500 SLG. That's just my personal preference and I know not everyone will agree with it. Of course, with an unlimited budget and complete managerial control, I'd move Fukudome to CF over the offseason (or right now) and trade for/sign someone like Adam Dunn or Milton Bradley. I was suggesting that EPatt might be a decent and cheap option if needed, not that he's going to explode into a superstar player.

Yeah, I know I'm whacky to talk about this with Edmonds hitting the way he has been, but I just wanted to throw this out there and see what everyone thinks. I like what I've seen from Patterson in the early going. He seems like he knows what he is doing at the plate. He has drawn some walks and his minor league IsoD is encouraging. He's also got speed and I can't imagine it would be that tough to convert him to a CF. Even if Edmonds continues to hit and holds down CF the remainder of this season, it's very likely he won't be around next season. Of all the prospects we have, Patterson is the one I'd most like to hang onto and he'd give us a cheap option at CF who could also replace DeRosa at 2b or be the "supersub" with his ability to play multiple positions. I think he could be a .275/.335/.450 kind of player in the majors, and that's pretty decent production if he's inexpensive. Don't get me wrong, he's not untouchable. If he's the guy that Cleveland has to have for Sabathia, I trade him without a second thought. I'd probably also be willing to part with him in a Burnett/Bedard/Harden/Harang deal, but I'd try to get the other team to grab someone else instead. EDIT: Oops I meant to put this in Cubs discussions not transactions. Guess I wasn't paying attention. Please go ahead and move this if it needs to be moved.

You could add Vicente Padilla, Greg Maddux, and Randy Wolf to that list. I've seen all three names mentioned as possibly available. Of course, Maddux and Wolf would be worse than just letting Marshall or Gallagher start so they don't count as legitimate targets to me (but Hendry might think otherwise).

But you forgot how Crede runs hard on every pop fly. Those intangibles are what really count in baseball, not numbers like HR and OBP. What were you thinking.

He's not a .250 hitter and even if he were, this label would be completely selling one of his major offensive strengths, his ability to draw walks, short. Why do people still freaking cite batting average so damn much?? No idea. SLG tells you more about how strong a hitter a guy is and OBP tells you how good he is at not making outs. There are a whole host of peripheral stats like LD%, BB/K, etc. that tell you more about a hitter than BA.

Do you really want Pie to work the count at this stage and end up in alot of two strike counts? I want him to get a good pitch to hit and try to hit it hard. He's never going to be a high BB guy, I'm more concerned with him putting the ball into play hard rather than BBs. Which saying becoming less of a free swinger and me saying getting a good pitch to hit is different in semantics only. Although, I disagree with him needing to work the count at this stage. Yeah, it's a lot of semantics. I think what we're both really saying is he's got to stop swinging at pitches that bounce over the plate. Not everybody is going to be Grace or Fukudome, but we don't need any more Jacque Joneses. I'd like to see an IsoD of around .060 to .075 out of Pie at Iowa, which would probably translate into maybe a .040 to .050 in the majors. You have to be somewhat disciplined to produce unless you have phenomenal power like Ryan Howard. If we're in agreement that Pie doesn't have that kind of power, then we're really not disagreeing at all.

Rookies are going to struggle and they're going to go through hot and cold streaks. He's still drawing walks and having a good approach at the plate. He's also the 6 or 7 hitter in our lineup so we don't really need him to be Albert Pujols. He'll get hot again. These are the kinds of things that happen to rookie players. If he was looking awful in his at-bats I'd be a lot more worried, but his approach and demeanor haven't really changed. He's just slumping.

We're going all out to win this year and need a pitcher, so yeah, we're gonna be interested in everyone with an arm. I wouldn't give up Gallagher and Vitters for Bedard. Gallagher and Colvin/Pie, or Vitters and Marshall/Hill possibly. He may not even be worth Gallagher straight up if Sean keeps up the pace till the break. Given the relative costs, I'd much prefer Burnett over Bedard, assuming we can't get Sabathia. Isn't Burnett just as much of a question mark as Bedard? Yes, you take the same risk on Burnett if not a greater one, but the price won't be as high. The Jays didn't give up their best prospects for Burnett three months ago so there's no pressure to save face. Also, they're not likely to be good anywhere in the near future so they'd be more likely to bite on high ceiling question marks and guys in the low minors like Hill, Pie, Colvin, Ceda, Veal. It also doesn't help the Jays that Burnett is having an awful year and has been dropping some pretty obvious hints he'd like to be out of Toronto. If the Cubs could get any pitcher at the same cost in terms of prospects, and they were all half season rentals, my order of preference among those who have been discussed would be Sabathia, Harden, Harang, Padilla, Bedard, and Burnett. However, a lot of these guys have bad contracts and/or would cost a great deal more than they are worth in terms of risk. In terms of which player I'd like to have, Burnett is last, but the difference in all those guys isn't huge with the exception of Sabathia. They all have some upside but some risk as well. Given what they're likely to cost and their contract situations, my preference would be Sabathia (he's the best player available and the only one worth selling the farm for), Burnett, Padilla, Harang, Harden, Bedard. I'm just thinking that the M's will be under so much pressure to get as much for Bedard as they gave Baltimore, they'll ask for too much and end up either fleecing someone or standing pat. As long as we're discussing the Mariners, with them being way out of it and with Fukudome being such a fan favorite, would Ichiro be interested in coming to Chicago? Would the M's be interested in dealing him?

Any word on whether Pie is working on taking more pitches and getting deeper into counts. I don't think he has the power to get away with being that much of a free swinger.

We're going all out to win this year and need a pitcher, so yeah, we're gonna be interested in everyone with an arm. I wouldn't give up Gallagher and Vitters for Bedard. Gallagher and Colvin/Pie, or Vitters and Marshall/Hill possibly. He may not even be worth Gallagher straight up if Sean keeps up the pace till the break. Given the relative costs, I'd much prefer Burnett over Bedard, assuming we can't get Sabathia.