Amazing_Grace

Someone mentioned this in the game thread. I think ERA is and should be a pitching statistic, not pitching + fielding. While I agree with that, is there a stat for pitchers that combines ERA, pitcher errors and pitcher offensive output? I don't know how it would be done, but it could be interesting. If that doesn't make sense, I'm trying to ask if Pitcher A puts up a 4.00 era but hits 6 homeruns, is he more effective than Pitcher B that has a 3.75 era but no hits all season or Pitcher C with a 3.75 era but tons of errors? I don't know, I think it would be interesting and could be a nice way of measuring overall effectiveness as a baseball player, not necessarily as a pitcher. I think the problem with that is that by far the most important thing a pitcher does is pitch. Pitching is 80% or more of what a pitcher does while defense and offense make up the other 20%. A pitcher may have 3 or 4 ABs in a game at most and an average of 2 or 3 defensive chances per game, while he throws to probably 80+ pitches to 20+ batters. The difference in pitchers offensively and defensively is not going to make up much of any difference in them in pitching.

If Pie is called up, I hope it means Jones has been traded and not Jones is the everyday RF.

Nah. It's such a weak division. The team that plays just slightly north of mediocrity will be playing in October. I think that team will be our boys. What are you drinking and can I have some?

Zambrano and Barrett in 2 fights The Cubs lose for 5 straight nights Don't Worry Be Happy When the other team hits 3 doubles It may look like the start of troubles But, don't worry Be happy do, do, do, do, do, do, do, de, do don't worry be happy! The Cubbies bats they have no pop Lou Piniella blows his top Don't Worry Be Happy

I think the GM is what needs to be changed. The 2007 Cubs may very well end up being the worst 100M dollar team ever, and THIS time, Hendry can't fall back on his tired "injuries" excuse. We've had everyone healthy that we expected to have all season for the most part, and we still stink. If there's anyone out there that still wants to defend Hendry after this season, I'll be shocked.

The Cubs are sooo bad.... That instead of fighting the other team, they're fighting each other.

Zambrano and Barrett in 2 fights The Cubs lose for 5 straight nights Don't Worry Be Happy

Agreed. This team has definitely passed over into that wacky realm of things so bad they're funny.

Hopefully the bus is ok. ROFL, no one deserves it more than Hendry.

Well, should be an offensive upgrade at least.

Well, that's one Floyd down, Izturis to go.

/makes siren sound effect

Ahh, the poor Cubs players. Dusty was so nice and wonderful to them and let them do whatever they wanted. Now mean old Uncle Lou is telling them they can't just do whatever they want and making them do work and take responsibility for their actions. Someone call the Whaaaaambulance.

Well, at least we know they're as sick of sucking as we are of watching them suck. EDIT: I can just imagine what's going through Z's mind on a daily basis by now. He could have taken a deal that was, by all accounts, an average of 15-17M per year for 7 years. Now he's got an ERA over 6.00 and is likely to be fined by the league for fighting.... with a player from his own team. We have a saying here in the South for how Z must be feeling, "Lower than a snake's belly in a ditch".

I would only put one person on this year's Cubs team untouchable, Rich Hill, but Lee is very close. I doubt trading Lee would help much as his contract actually looks like a bargain given what he's been doing and he's not a player that's overly reliant on power hitting, so he probably will not decline as sharply as others. I'd have to get a lot, a *LOT* before I'd consider trading Derrek Lee, and that's assuming he'd even agree to waive his NTC, which I doubt he would. The team's problem offensively is having guys that are just plain bad or mediocre hitters from a technical standpoint. Lee is pretty much the only guy on the team that is a great all around hitter. He hits for average, hits for power, can take a walk, and rarely swings at bad pitches. Lee is what the team needs more of, not less.

I doubt anyone would take Jones without the Cubs paying the greater portion of his salary. The fact he's signed beyond this season makes him a very poor choice for a team trying to find someone to fill in for an injured guy for half a season. I think Jones should be traded, but I doubt the Mets are this dumb. In order to trade Jones, we should focus on the teams with really stupid GMs like San Fran, Tampa, LA, LAA, Baltimore, and possibly Seattle.

This is a realistic deal and wouldn't be too bad. With the Blanco injury and the fact that Barrett is playing godawful, the Cubs certainly appear to need a catcher pretty badly. This deal wouldn't be spectacular, but I wouldn't be horribly disappointed either. I still think it's going to take Z having a string of good starts before the Braves or anyone else give up much for him.

What we can realistically get for Z at this point is not much, but a lot can change between now and July 31. Given the payday Zambrano is likely to get next offseason, very few teams will be trading for him with the intention of signing him long term. If Z was pitching well, say around 3.25 ERA at this point, I'd try to get the Yankees to trade Hughes for Z and one of Marshall/Guzman. With Z pitching as he is now, he's not worth nearly as much to a contending team. If he doesn't markedly improve by July, the Cubs are probably just as well off to let him walk and take the draft pick. If he finishes the season with an ERA over 5, you might see if he'll sign a one or 2 year deal at around 10-11M, comparable to what Marquis/Lilly are getting and still allowing him his big payday when/if he rebounds. I doubt very much anybody will offer him Barry Zito money coming off a season that bad. The Z situation, if it plays out where he has a terrible year with an ERA in the 5.50 range, is a great cautionary tale for pitchers trying to hold out for every dollar in their contract negotiations, as Z will have negotiated himself out of several million dollars and many years of financial security. It's also yet another cautionary tale for clubs offering big contracts to pitchers in the first place.

Don't have to "remember". Look no farther than SS and you sorta get a deja vu tingling sensation. Ha. Never thought I'd wish for Shawon Dunston as much as I do now.

I agree with this post 100%. The Cubs should save as much money as they can. I would trade one of Lilly/Marquis. If they're still pitching well, they have some value, and you may be able to find a team willing to take most of their contract (meaning the Cubs don't have to pay more than half the deal). Dealing Marquis is the more likely, and probably more prudent, option. I would keep DeRosa. 3/13 isn't that bad considering what we gave to Neifi to be a supersub. At worst, DeRosa is a much better version of Neifi. At best, we can use him to fill in whatever position seems weakest out of RF or 2b. I would trade Z, but only if the Cubs get a ML ready prospect at P, C, or SS. The other positions are covered either by prospects we have in the system, or cheap players we have now. If they can't get that, then the only other thing to consider would be using Z as leverage to force another team to take on one of our worst contracts (Jones, Dempster, Eyre). If Barrett starts hitting, he may have some value to an AL team that needs a backup catcher. If you get a decent offer, you take it. Blanco has very very little value unless perhaps Z improves with him as his personal catcher. Then he can be packaged in that deal. Of Howry, Dempster, and Eyre, Howry's contract is the worst but he's also probably the most likely of the three not to stink. It wouldn't be terrible to keep him, but if someone is willing to take most (over 3M) of his contract contract, I think you have to deal him. Dempster is probably moveable if the Cubs pick up 2 or 3 of his 5M next year. No sane GM would trade for Scott Eyre making league minimum at this point, let alone Scott Eyre making 4M. There's really no choice here but to try to option him to AAA and let him go if he refuses. I deal Jones to whoever is willing to pay half of his 6M next season for a bag of baseballs and some 'Just for Men' for all the extra gray Lou will have after this season. It's worth the Cubs paying 3M to get him out of the way of Pie and Murton even if they get nothing. Best case scenario, if we're able to do most of what I suggest, the Cubs save around 3M on Dempster, 3M on Jones, 3M-4M on Marquis, and another 3M on Howry. That's only about 12M. It's a sorry commentary on Hendry but that's about as good as the Cubs can do. Of those guys, I think Dempster is the only guy where the Cubs might conceivably find someone to take his whole contract. That said, I feel the chances of this happening are about zero. If the Cubs are within 5 games of first place at the break, Hendry will do nothing and hope they rebound, or he'll make the situation worse by trading for some other overpaid veteran. He's trying to save his job and very likely his future in baseball. For him there is no tomorrow.

Other than Lee and Soriano, none of this really surprises me. I thought Soriano would hit for plenty of power but his AVG and OBP would regress quite a bit. So far it's looking like the opposite is happening. It's hard to figure out Lee also. As for the rest, Floyd is an old player whose skills have been rapidly declining due to injury and age. Murton never projected from the minors to hit for as much power as he did last season. Jones is slumping early but we shouldn't expect greatness from a guy with a career OPS of .783 who's playing out of position and quite likely unhappy about it. Barrett has never had great power and his lack of power comes from the overall slump in his hitting. Interesting side note, remember when 3b was a 'cursed' position that went through like 30 guys since Ron Santo?

I think I'm just resigned to the fact that this is the team we have and the Cubs won't be good for another 3 years at least. Hendry has really destroyed any chance a new GM might have to make changes quickly by handing out all the ridiculous contracts this offseason. We'll need at least 3 years to get some of the bad contracts out (Lilly, Marquis, Dempster, Eyre, Howry, Jones, Blanco). If we trade any of those guys, it probably means we've agreed to pay a part of their remaining salary anyway (put me on the record as saying I don't believe Marquis and Lilly will continue to be as good as they've been the first 2 months). It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better for us Cub fans. The new ownership will probably take a while to make any serious changes, but the glimmer of hope is there that they will have a better approach and understanding of how to build a team, and that with the Cubs fanbase and financial resources, they can be good within a few years.

I think it has to do with Jim's glass half full mentality. The guy seems to put together teams that can win, if a lot of things go right. But he's awful at planning for unexpected, or even expected, setbacks. Lots of teams play through injuries and down years from players. Jim seems to think, "Well, at his best Jacque Jones is a pretty darn good RF" without calculating the odds that he will actually be at this best at any given moment/year. Or, "Izturis was all star caliber for half a season, so we expect him to be all star caliber for us." Jim only thinks about what players can do at their peak, without realizing that peak years don't last forever and are not guaranteed to anybody. These characteristics are what made Jim a very good talent scout and minor league director. They make him a horrible GM. Being able to tell what a player's ceiling is and what raw talent a guy has is a very good skill if your job is simply to evaluate talent and decide who to pick and develop. Other than undervaluing plate discipline as a skill, Hendry did a fairly good job when he was in charge of the minor leagues. A GM must make much more complex judgements, not about what a guy can do, but what he is LIKELY to do, and whether it's worth the cost and risk involved in signing him. He also has to be able to look at the big picture, beyond individual players and positions to build a team that is competitive in terms of offense, defense, and pitching. If you look at the individual decisions Hendry has made, you find that some turn out good and some bad, like most GMs. He finds some gems (Ramirez, Lee, Barrett) and finds some turds (Jones, Pierre, Izturis, McGriff). However, the teams he has built have been, by and large, flawed, incomplete, and bad.

Is it even a sentence. I just see some words with a lot of commas.

This is correct. This season is likely to be another where the Cubs should look to the future and don't. I can't wait till we trade Gallagher for a middle reliever in July.