I thought the ceiling was lower due to being a little older than alot of guys in the minors and more injured history than most arms that have that kind of perceived upside. That upside only existed and was talked about because of the kind of arm he has. I like him way more as a reliever, where his ample stuff is concentrated in doses, rather than as a starter, where he's further off from the big leagues despite being 26 and it's much harder to break in and last. The stuff is more than good, it's high end. Personally, I think you underrate the breaking pitch a whole lot. From what you're describing it sounds like you're letting the year by year minor league result variations cause your opinion to sway to extremes pretty easily. Also, the description of Kurcz at the bottom sounds alot like Carpenter...who also has two plus pitches and a fastball that moves very well. He (Kurcz) has the disadvantage/advantage of being less tested (lower level, nowhere near as many innings), younger, and making a smoother transition earlier...I buy that he's potentially a good, even very good pen arm, but I don't buy that he's a better prospect than Carpenter right now. That's probably just a difference in philosophy when it comes to ranking prospects...I do see some David Robertson-esque qualities in Kurcz as a young arm in the way he pitches and repeats his mechanics, but he's at least two years away and therefore just further from thought.