Cubs Winter Top Prospects: #10 Alexander Canario

Giving Happ that extension and NTC looks worse and worse every day. 

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Giving Happ that extension and NTC looks worse and worse every day. 

Because that’s what’s holding back Canario or something? Pass

Yeah, I tend to agree with Tom here; the Cubs have a LF'er who's been worth 7 fWAR the last 2 seasons combined and realistically, very consistent. He's posted 120 and 118 wRC+'s, been healthy and provided above average defense in LF. I think Canario is interesting, but his strikeout issues are caution to pause. Canario might be a 3.5 fWAR LF'er but there's significant risk. Time for the Cubs to win now. I won't shed tears if the Cubs trade Canario and turn him into another useful MLB player.

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, I tend to agree with Tom here; the Cubs have a LF'er who's been worth 7 fWAR the last 2 seasons combined and realistically, very consistent. He's posted 120 and 118 wRC+'s, been healthy and provided above average defense in LF. I think Canario is interesting, but his strikeout issues are caution to pause. Canario might be a 3.5 fWAR LF'er but there's significant risk. Time for the Cubs to win now. I won't shed tears if the Cubs trade Canario and turn him into another useful MLB player.

He's a better and more useful player than Happ is right now. 

41 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

He's a better and more useful player than Happ is right now. 

You’re drunk 

Stuff like this is why the prospect meta going mainstream was and is so maddening and/or terrifying 

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

He's a better and more useful player than Happ is right now. 

Canario? He has 17 PA's at the MLB level. Over the last 2 seasons, only three left fielders have been worth more fWAR than Ian Happ in the MLB. It feels very unfair to claim a player who has 17 PA's in his entire MLB career is somehow better than a 3.5 fWAR LF'er already. 

The jury is entirely out on Alexander Canario. I'm not sure his ceiling is even above a 3,5 fWAR OF'er, personally. Which isn't to say he can't reach it, but I think we have to be fair to both Canario in terms of our expectations, and Happ who's a pretty good player.

Even assuming he gets that extra option, I think if you made me put odds on prospect most likely to get traded I'd choose Canario.  He's reportedly not great in centerfield ("fine for now" seems to be the consensus), and doesn't have big time splits.  The lack of splits is good for his prospects of ending up an everyday player, but bad for finding him plate appearances in April of '24.  So you've got a good-not-great prospect who's more or less major league ready without a clear path to MLB playing time.  And on top of that he's got better prospects not that far behind him.  More or less textbook trade bait IMO.

Canario had a lower wRC+ this year at Iowa than Happ's career MLB line.  His Iowa line (in 161 PA) was 7th best of Iowa hitters who got at least 100 PA.  He's hit better in the past pre-injury, but he's always been a guy who had an uphill battle to be an above average/starting corner OF, and that remains true.

He could be an intriguing bench option who gets periodic time in the OF and at DH, along with power in pinch hitting situations in 2024, but between the injury and his age, he needs plate appearances that won't be available barring catastrophic injury. Any notion that he could push Happ or Susuki for the starting job next season is, frankly, misguided.

It's basically Nelson Velazquez redux. If they can't stash him in AAA another year, he'd be a perfect fit in a low pressure/low expectations environment via trade.

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Canario had a lower wRC+ this year at Iowa than Happ's career MLB line.  His Iowa line (in 161 PA) was 7th best of Iowa hitters who got at least 100 PA.  He's hit better in the past pre-injury, but he's always been a guy who had an uphill battle to be an above average/starting corner OF, and that remains true.

I agree with most of the above posts, but I'm going to point out here that he really struggled in his first week or so back at Iowa and then pretty much tore the cover off the ball after that. It would be completely understandable that he needed to find his timing when he first got there. 

That said...

1. There is absolutely no rational foundation to say that he's already a better player than Ian Happ
2. I do believe his power gives him a higher ceiling than Happ, but the contact issues make him fairly unlikely to reach it

3 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It's basically Nelson Velazquez redux. If they can't stash him in AAA another year, he'd be a perfect fit in a low pressure/low expectations environment via trade.

True statement, but I think Canario is a significantly better prospect than Nelson was.

4 hours ago, CubinNY said:

He's a better and more useful player than Happ is right now. 

Really, you think Canario would be a 4 win rookie if alotted 700 PA?

2 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Really, you think Canario would be a 4 win rookie if alotted 700 PA?

who knows, but he plays better defense and he's going to produce more runs.

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

who knows, but he plays better defense and he's going to produce more runs.

You say this with such confidence. Admirable.

On 11/13/2023 at 9:12 AM, 1908_Cubs said:

...This power output came with some questions. In 2022, Canario struck out around 19% of the time, a massive improvement over the near 30% rates he had been hovering at during his lower-level stints. In 2023, the strikeouts returned, as he posted a 28% strikeout rate in Iowa. Even during his 14-game span, which saw those 13 extra-base hits, Canario still struck out 30% of the time. Between August 4th and August 30th (his last game in Iowa), Alexander struck out in every game he played. Hitters who strike out over 30% of the time have a much harder path to success, so seeing Canario revert to being a higher strikeout hitter was problematic. Something that looked like it had been solved the year prior was rearing its ugly head again..... In a short stint, Canario saw 17 PAs in Chicago, much like this 2023 season: a mixed bag. Hitting his first career major league home run in dramatic style (an absolute bomb of a grand slam) but striking out eight times, the good and the bad were both on display....

View full article

 

Not to contest the gist of the article.  But unless I'm crazy, there is some factual inaccuracy.  You have 19% K-rate in 2022, 28% at Iowa 2023.  

Baseball reference stats differs some:  , https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=canari000ale

• 2022 composite:  147/534 K/PA = 27.5%
• 2022 Iowa:  21/84 = 25%
• 2023 Iowa:  45/161 = 27.9%.

Not sure having actually been 27.5% in 2022 instead of 19% really helps his case.  Just reflects that he's been a K guy in 2022 as well as 2023, and some improvement at Iowa in 2022 was perhaps more fluke than real.  

That said, I'm higher on Canario than what seems the general consensus here.  Over 137 AA/AAA games, 38 HR is pretty good.  Over his two Iowa visits, OBP 357, average .262, slug .529, OPS .885.  K/HR/BB ratio 4.7:1:2, not bad.  Big slug can cover a bunch of K's.  And it's possible he's just kinda finding his game, and he's going to get better?  He was just coming off the big injury this year, and like Tim said started cold.  So I'd like to see what he could do if he started right out at Iowa, healthy, and got some months in.  I like him bit better than I liked Velasquez at this point last year, more power, so I'd be disappointed to trade him this winter for no more than a Cuas.  

I'm also a bit less concerned with the Happ/Suzuki block.  3 years pass very quickly.  Assuming Canario gets the extra option year, he could do Iowa this year, and be a depth/DH/platoon guy for two years, 

Sure, a trade candidate now, and I'm fine to involve him in a trade for something of long-term value.  But not for a Cuas-level reliever, or like 6 years ago when Theo traded both Candelario and Paredes (31 HR this season, 131 OPS+) for JAG Justin Wilson.  Plus, I think his trade value could be a lot higher in July than it is now? 

48 minutes ago, craig said:

Not to contest the gist of the article.  But unless I'm crazy, there is some factual inaccuracy.  You have 19% K-rate in 2022, 28% at Iowa 2023.  

Baseball reference stats differs some:  , https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=canari000ale

• 2022 composite:  147/534 K/PA = 27.5%
• 2022 Iowa:  21/84 = 25%
• 2023 Iowa:  45/161 = 27.9%.

Not sure having actually been 27.5% in 2022 instead of 19% really helps his case.  Just reflects that he's been a K guy in 2022 as well as 2023, and some improvement at Iowa in 2022 was perhaps more fluke than real.  

That said, I'm higher on Canario than what seems the general consensus here.  Over 137 AA/AAA games, 38 HR is pretty good.  Over his two Iowa visits, OBP 357, average .262, slug .529, OPS .885.  K/HR/BB ratio 4.7:1:2, not bad.  Big slug can cover a bunch of K's.  And it's possible he's just kinda finding his game, and he's going to get better?  He was just coming off the big injury this year, and like Tim said started cold.  So I'd like to see what he could do if he started right out at Iowa, healthy, and got some months in.  I like him bit better than I liked Velasquez at this point last year, more power, so I'd be disappointed to trade him this winter for no more than a Cuas.  

I'm also a bit less concerned with the Happ/Suzuki block.  3 years pass very quickly.  Assuming Canario gets the extra option year, he could do Iowa this year, and be a depth/DH/platoon guy for two years, 

Sure, a trade candidate now, and I'm fine to involve him in a trade for something of long-term value.  But not for a Cuas-level reliever, or like 6 years ago when Theo traded both Candelario and Paredes (31 HR this season, 131 OPS+) for JAG Justin Wilson.  Plus, I think his trade value could be a lot higher in July than it is now? 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alexander-canario/22842/stats?position=DH/OF

Data from 2023 is accurate. Looks like I accidentally read his CPX K% for AAA. Whoops! Good catch there.

I think we agree on his trade value, even if we have a bit of a different view on Canario. Canario is better than Nelson (probably by a standard deviation), I'd be bummed to see the Cubs send him away for a project RHP out of the BP. I do think his value lies as the 2nd piece in a bigger trade (like for Soto, a controllable SP, etc...) or for a much better RP (a controllable leverage-type).