With Two Weeks Left, Cubs' Magic Numbers Are 10, 4, Good Buddy

In the blink of an eye, the MLB regular season is down to just two weeks remaining before playoff baseball is upon us. It feels like it was just yesterday that the Cubs were battling it out with the Dodgers in Tokyo to kick off the season. We've come a long way since March, and that means October is rapidly approaching. Let's dive into exactly where the Cubs stand, with the regular season winding down.

Entering Monday, Chicago still trails the Milwaukee Brewers by 5 1/2 games for the NL Central lead. With every day, a division title feels less likely, so the main focus has shifted toward securing the top NL Wild Card spot. That lead over the San Diego Padres currently sits at 3 1/2 games, with just 13 games remaining for the Cubs and 12 remaining for the Padres.

Chicago's magic number to clinch at least a spot in the postseason is down to four, but the magic number to clinch home-field in the Wild Card series is 10. That home-field will be of huge importance for a series against a team like San Diego, who thrives in the warm weather and in front of its raucous home crowds.

This week will be extremely important for the Cubs, as they have seven games against divisional opponents. A bad week would open the door for the Padres to creep within true striking distance. If they were to finish tied atop the Wild Card standings, San Diego would likely get the top spot, due to the intradivisional tiebreaker rule. A 5-2 or even 6-1 week against the Pirates and Reds, however, would both keep San Diego in the rearview and give the Cubs a more impressive record within their division.

On the injury front, Chicago is set to have Michael Soroka back at some point in the early part of the week, and there's some hope that Kyle Tucker will rejoin the lineup during the weekend series in Cincinnati. One other injury of importance is to closer Daniel Palencia. It looked like Palencia may need to miss extended time, but he actually may be returning sooner than expected. The team indicated he could throw off a mound again as soon as early this week.

Tucker is obviously the biggest potential boost to the roster, but the possible contributions from Soroka and Palencia can't be overstated. Soroka surely won't be tasked with a postseason start over Jameson Taillon or Colin Rea, but he could provide needed length and matchup value out of the pen. Palencia will likely be inserted back into a high-leverage role in relief, despite his recent struggles—if this quick comeback materializes.

There is still a bit of stuff that will be sorted out this week, but the blueprint is clear. Win four games, dominate your divisional opponents and make sure everyone is as close to 100% as they can be. A good finish down the stretch will be important for momentum headed into the playoffs. Two good weeks will have the Cubs in the postseason for the first time since 2020, and playing a real series in a standard postseason setup for the first time since 2017.