Who Should Be the Cubs’ Highest-Leverage Reliever in October?

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The Cubs’ pitching staff has dealt with more than their fair share of turmoil this season, particularly in the bullpen. Between injuries, inconsistency and a couple of trade deadline additions, this unit has constantly been adjusting throughout the season. With the Wild Card round of the playoffs right around the corner, though, Craig Counsell needs to know exactly whom he can trust when the biggest moments arrive.

At this point, the season-long numbers don’t matter much. Right now, it’s about who’s hot, who’s not, and which pitchers can actually be trusted when the game is on the line. Given that premise, who should be the Cubs’ highest-leverage reliever once the postseason begins?

For most of the year, that guy has been Jacob Webb. The Cubs haven’t really had a true, set closer since Dnaiel Palencia went down for the first time early this year, but Webb has led the team in both saves and save opportunities. He’s been the closest thing Chicago has had to a traditional ninth-inning option, and for much of the season, he handled that role pretty well.

The problem is that Webb hasn’t exactly been trending in the right direction lately. His ERA over the last month sits at a whopping 11.42, while both his walk and strikeout rates have moved in the wrong direction. That's a pretty concerning combination heading into October, especially for a pitcher who has been asked to protect a lot of close leads over the course of the year. He'll probably make the postseason roster, but he can't be treated as a relief ace anymore. Counsell has already moved away from him.

Then there’s Palencia, who opened the season with plenty of momentum. He was riding high after recording the save for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic championship game, and dominating that tournament, in general. He looked locked into the closer's gig. Unfortunately, injuries completely derailed his season.

Palencia missed most of April before returning in early May, only to go down again in June with a flexor strain. Since returning from that injury, he hasn’t recorded a save and hasn’t been used in many of the highest-leverage situations. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs don’t trust him; they've just been easing Palencia back into things. If he can regain the form he showed earlier in the year, there’s certainly a path toward him reclaiming a late-inning role once the playoffs begin. But I’m not sure he should be the guy Counsell automatically turns to in the biggest spot.

You could also make a case for a couple of other names, including Aaron Civale and Ryan Rolison. Both have pitched important innings for the Cubs, and there’s a legitimate argument that either could find themselves in a prominent postseason role. But if I had to pick one pitcher to handle the Cubs’ highest-leverage situations in October, I’d go with Ryan Zeferjahn.

Zeferjahn came over at the trade deadline from the Angels in exchange for Moisés Ballesteros and pitching prospect Mason McGwire, and though it hasn't been pretty, it's getting easier to see the move panning out. He’s recorded a pair of saves since arriving in Chicago, but it’s some of his underlying numbers that really stand out.

Across 17 1/3 innings in high-leverage situations, Zeferjahn has allowed 11 earned runs. But there’s more to the story. He’s allowed fewer than one baserunner per inning in those situations, while striking out 31.4% of the batters he's faced. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage allowed are all better in high-leverage situations than they are in medium- or low-leverage spots. That’s exactly the kind of profile you want from a reliever who's going to be asked to pitch when the game is on the line. And recently, Zeferjahn has simply been better than the other candidates.

Over the last month, he’s been far more effective than Webb, Palencia, and Rolison. The Cubs also didn’t trade for Zeferjahn without a reason. The stuff here is electric. He generates an insane amount of swing-and-miss, limits hard contact, and has already shown that he can handle high-leverage innings. Those are the traits that can make a reliever extremely valuable in October, when Counsell can deploy his bullpen based on the situation, rather than sticking to traditional roles.

That last part is important, too. The Cubs don’t necessarily need a traditional closer. They need their best reliever available for their biggest moment. If that moment comes in the seventh inning against the heart of the opposing lineup, that’s when Zeferjahn should enter. If it comes in the ninth inning with a one-run lead, he should be the guy getting the ball there, too.

Chicago spent most of the season trying to figure out their bullpen. With the playoffs almost here, it’s time to stop worrying about what these guys have done all year and start focusing on who can deliver when everything is on the line. If it were up to me, Ryan Zeferjahn would be that guy—even if that says more about the state of the pen than about Zeferjahn's reliability.