Which is More Costly for the 2024 Cubs: Leadoff Singles, or Leadoff Walks?

Every baseball fan has, at some point, groaned over the dreaded leadoff walk, or winced a little when a pitcher gives one up in only four pitches. Is that a valid reaction, or are we all just deluded by the old baseball proverb? What about leadoff singles? I’ve never heard equivalent disdain toward leadoff singles, as compared to leadoff walks. So, let's pose the question for the Cubs: since 2008, which has been worse, giving up a leadoff walk or a leadoff single?

Over the last 16 years, the Cubs have seen a lot: from the golden season of 2016 to the less ideal seasons, like 2012, the Cubs know what it’s like to win it all, or lose it all, and it seems like leadoff walks vs. leadoff singles can correlate to winning vs. losing seasons.

In 2016, when the Cubs finished 103-58 for a .639 record, if the Cubs gave up a leadoff walk, .78 runs scored on average in that inning. If a leadoff single was given up, only .72 runs were scored on average, for an 8% difference. Comparatively, the Cubs in some of their worst years, like the 2012 and 2013 seasons, averaged 1.04 runs scored off of leadoff walks vs. 1.01 runs scored off of leadoff singles, for only a 2.5% difference. From the 2008 to the 2023 season, the Cubs averaged .93 runs given up off of a leadoff walk, vs. .90 runs given up off of a leadoff single, so they generally lean toward leadoff walks being slightly worse. However, the better they do in a season, the worse leadoff walks become, in a relative sense. The more successful the Cubs’ season is, the more extreme the difference is between leadoff walks and leadoff singles, so fans are right to be wary of a leadoff free pass.

What about this season? As we enter the endgame of the season, the Cubs have a shot at making the playoffs, but time and time again, we have seen them fall to pieces in the last month of the season. This year has presented the same opportunity: with the Cubs 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, will they be able to capitalize on these last few series and land themselves a spot in the playoffs?

If we look specifically at some of the most-used pitchers on the 2024 roster--Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks, and Justin Steele--the averages change drastically from the previous years, After leadoff walks, .74 runs scored on average. Meanwhile, after leadoff singles, .95 runs scored on average, for a 21% difference. In this case, leadoff walks are significantly better to give up than leadoff singles. A similar difference can be seen in the 2023 season overall: the Cubs averaged .77 runs given up off of leadoff walks vs. 1.09 runs given up off of leadoff singles. So, despite a history of leadoff walks being the bigger fear, with this crop of pitchers and for the rest of this season, we should be watching out for leadoff singles.

This was on full and excruciating display Monday night. Jorge López went right after Pirates hitters with a three-run lead, but gave up a leadoff single on a blooper--which snowballed into a four-run inning that torpedoed the team's momentum to open this pivotal homestand. Some of the game's best pitchers disproportionately struggle when they give up leadoff walks, but for this year's Cubs staff, it seems much more ominous when they give up a leadoff hit. Maybe it signals that the vibes, or the defense, or the pitcher's ability to miss opponents' barrels are out of whack. Maybe it's just variance. Either way, though, beware the leadoff single, and don't be too hard on the team's wily hurlers when they issue a free pass to open a frame.

Editor's Note: We're thrilled to welcome Bailey Hall to the site as a biweekly contributor, beginning with this piece. Bailey won the annual poster presentation contest at this year's Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) national convention, last month in Minneapolis, with a deep dive on this very subject--zoomed out to the league-wide level. Look forward to more of her work throughout the coming offseason.