Where Does Justin Steele Fit into Cubs' 2026 Rotation Plan?

Information surrounding Justin Steele has been sparse since his elbow surgery in April. We know he's back to throwing, but it's hard to predict whether he'll be back on a big-league mound by the end of April or only after the All-Star break. That leaves the Cubs with a lot of uncertainty to navigate as they try to improve their starting rotation.

WHERE THE CUBS STAND
Let's sketch out the Cubs' 2026 rotation, as it stands right now. Here are the likely starters, with estimates of the starts we can expect them to make

• Shota Imanaga:25
• Jameson Taillon: 25
• Cade Horton: 25
• Matthew Boyd: 25
• Justin Steele: 15

That's 115 starts, with 47 left to fill. The Cubs have over $50 million to spend to get to the luxury tax threshold. Keep in mind, though, that they also have only two key returning relief pitchers (three trustworthy guys, perhaps, after signing Phil Maton) and need to address the bench. 

The Cubs do have internal options, each with varying degrees of excitement. Javier Assad endured an injury-plagued 2025, but was recently tendered a deal. Jordan Wicks struggled in the major leagues in 2025, with a 6.28 ERA in just 15 innings, but still maintains a first-round draft pedigree and the potential to earn innings. Jaxon Wiggins, MLB.com's 67th ranked prospect, touched Triple A after torching the low minors (2.17 ERA across three levels, 97 strikeouts in 78 innings).

The fifth starter, in a best-case scenario, would be Steele. He did start throwing on October 20:

That gives Steele, who was projected on a 12-18 month recovery timeline, at least a chance to be ready opening day. In all probability, it will be at least a few weeks later than that, but the early returns are good. Given that he wasn't the most durable starter before the elbow finally gave way, the workload will need to be managed.

The X-factor is Colin Rea, whom the team proactively brought back for 2026 and over whom they now have control for 2027, too. Rea is as unsexy as they come, but he also made 27 starts and sported a 3.95 ERA in 2025. He's a nice floor-setter for the bottom end of the rotation, and with Imanaga returning, Rea's presence might be enough to keep the team from feeling undue urgency to act.

Between Steele's health, Assad's injury-wrecked 2025, Wicks's wobbliness, and Wiggins himself having had to be managed while recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, some of the younger internal options are risky. They could be seen as palatable, though, given the salary constraints the Cubs usually place upon themselves. With needs in the lineup and an entire bullpen to rebuild, the rotation could very well be set.

WHAT DO THE CUBS NEED?
That's really the crux of the issue for the Cubs. They need more innings to be covered. Horton, Boyd, Imanaga, and Taillon have had their issues with injury, and while none will need to be handled carefully in any specific way in 2026, it seems unlikely that they'll each stay healthy all year. The front office knows this; all offseason messaging has been about the pursuit of pitching. How many innings Steele will be able to contribute is a variable the Cubs can only loosely control or predict. They will, however, try to plan around it.

WHO IS AVAILABLE? HOW MUCH MONEY DO THE CUBS HAVE?
Most offseason reports have the Cubs with around $50 million to spend for their entire offseason. If most of this will go to the rotation, using the top 50 free agent tool on our umbrella site can be instructive. Here are some free agent targets the Cubs have been mentioned as being interested in, and their projected contracts:

• Dylan Cease: 6 years, $198 million: He's the big fish, and would take some sort of commitment by the Cubs to exceed the luxury tax for this season. He would be the ideal fit, though. Cease has taken the ball every turn in the rotation since he came up in 2019. This would be a big step to mitigate the workload concerns, and he gets swings and misses, too.
• Michael King: 4 years, $75 million: With an extensive injury history, he would be another risky arm to mix in with the rest. He's been an above-average starter for most of the last two and a half seasons, except that he missed significant time even in 2025.

The third option might be to sign another player in the same bracket as Rea: a get-you-there guy, rather than someone who would actually start in October. Rea himself could be that guy, too, and then slide into the bullpen if and when the club reaches the postseason. If the Cubs can deploy a four-man playoff rotation of Horton, Steele, Boyd, and Imanaga—all at full health and performing at their best—they can be competitive even against the other top teams in the National League, though they would be underdogs.

Signing arms like Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, or Cody Ponce (the latter returning, this winter, from a career-altering stint in the Korean Baseball Organization) wouldn't excite fans, but they could chew through innings from March through September and then (as Bassitt did for the 2025 Blue Jays) become important out of the bullpen come October. The floor would be raised, but not the ceiling.

Arguably, adding a high-priced starter would plug one hole, but open up another. Daniel Palencia and Maton are the only guys you can fully trust in the current bullpen, although Rea, Assad and/or Wicks could be utilized in relief roles at various points in 2026. They're losing (underwhelming) bench bats Justin Turner and Willi Castro and (whelming) middle-of-the-order bat Kyle Tucker via free agency. Much like a family with teenagers going to the grocery store, the budget can only withstand so much.

Steele has to be treated as possible icing for a more substantial cake next year. The Cubs recognize a failure from last season: they ran out of capable arms in October. Only time will tell if they can fix this, and still address the rest of the roster with the money Tom Ricketts allocates. If they properly understand their rehabbing erstwhile ace, though, they'll at least buttress their rotation with someone who takes pressure off his recovery process.