Two Years In, Cubs Are (Finally) Learning to Win the Craig Counsell Way

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It would be ungenerous to suggest that Craig Counsell has a particular way he wins games. No successful big-league manager can win in just one way (sorry, Mike Matheny), and for a solid decade, Counsell has proved himself to be a very successful big-league manager. He tries hard to enter every game with multiple road maps to the 27th out and the singing of 'Go, Cubs, Go' in mind. The Cubs brought him in at the highest annual salary in managerial history because they believe his genius is flexible enough to take them to the end of the season and beyond.

That said, even good, creative managers fall into patterns and have certain comfort zones. Some like a quick hook; some use a slower one. Some will take early risks to create a run or two, while others prefer to sit back and let their offense work. As important as fluidity is, you can't win 90 different ways in a 162-game grind. There has to be a Plan A, to which one is most eager to hew when circumstances allow.

For Counsell, that plan is as follows: play great defense. Let it be a low-scoring game, but win not by playing small ball, but by creating more chances than the other team. That can mean having some power in the lineup and/or taking an exceptionally patient approach. It just has to mean keeping the pressure on the opponent. In the middle innings, take a lead (even if it be a narrow one). Then, just hold on, baby.

Here are the records in one-run games for Counsell-managed teams, going back to 2016 (his first full season at the helm for Milwaukee).

2016: 23-28
2017: 25-22
2018: 33-19
2019: 27-18
2021: 21-15
2022: 28-23
2023: 29-18
2024: 23-28
2025: 24-16

Once he got his team together a bit, Counsell consistently won the close ones throughout his time with Milwaukee. He wasn't able to bring that skill to bear in his first year with the Cubs, but this season, he's back at it. Let's look at a different number, too, though. Here's the record of each year's Counsell-led team in games in which they led after six innings. (For ease of reference, I'm also adding the number of total games in which they had such a lead, in parentheses.)

2016: 60-9 (69)
2017: 71-9 (80)
2018: 73-6 (79)
2019: 67-6 (73)
2021: 74-10 (84)
2022: 61-13 (74)
2023: 65-9 (74)
2024: 62-13 (75)
2025: 70-10 (80)

The number in parentheses is almost more important than the record, of course, because teams who lead games after six innings go on to win them an overwhelming percentage of the time. However, Counsell-led teams have also been better than average even in that regard. The only year in which Counsell's Brewers were worse than the .870 average winning percentage for all teams over this span was 2022. When he came to the Cubs last year, though, they were very much like that frustrating 2022 club.

This year, they're back on track, in both important respects. This team still doesn't convert leads into wins over the late innings as efficiently as the 2017-21 Brewers did (and the Brewers themselves are an extraordinary 75-5 when they lead after six this year), but they're much better than they were last season. They're also looking likely to have more leads after six than all but that 2021 Brewers team.

Just as importantly, after a great start to the season during which the offense was humming so well that Counsell didn't have to do much to get them across the finish line, it feels like the team is now getting used to winning his way, even on tough days. They ground out a win Wednesday in the outskirts of Atlanta, to sew up a series victory. Jameson Taillon wasn't overpowering, but he pitched around an early threat. Trailing 1-0 entering the third inning, the Cubs got a home run from Carson Kelly, an RBI double from Justin Turner, and then a tack-on run on a Seiya Suzuki sacrifice fly. Then, a parade of relievers held the home side scoreless to lock down the win.

Eight days earlier, they did the same thing to the same opponents at Wrigley Field, when a three-run Kyle Tucker home run in the third inning helped them run out to a 4-0 lead. They held on for a 4-3 victory that night. On August 30 in Colorado, it was much the same story. Ditto for August 24 in Anaheim, and for August 20, against the Brewers. He couldn't just cruise to those victories; they were close games.

Those previous instances included six-inning starts and came when Counsell still had Daniel Palencia to turn to for three of the outs between those starters and the end of the game, but on Wednesday, he got to out No. 27 even though Taillon only took him halfway to that destination, and without Palencia.

Of course, it hasn't always worked out, even recently. The Cubs led after six on September 3 and September 7, and lost each time. As the Cubs knuckle down for a fight to hold onto the top NL Wild Card spot the rest of the way, though, it's encouraging that they seem to have tapped fully into Counsell's favorite blueprint. This team isn't going to blow teams out as often as they did early in the season, especially when they get to the playoffs and have to face a higher level of competition. However, they have the right pieces to finagle lots of wins, by scratching their way to a lead and then clinging tightly to it.

Counsell teams don't specialize in comebacks—not because he fails to instill resiliency in them, but because he doesn't chase wins. Desperate pinch-hitting or pinch-running moves aren't his style. Nor will he use his top relievers to keep a game within a run or two, unless they're in need of work, anyway. Although he's had a reputation for bullpenning, Counsell really doesn't lean in that direction, by modern standards. His best teams have had deep and capable starting rotations. He tries to spread his relievers' workload evenly, and if he can trust a starter, he will.

Joe Maddon, the last Cubs manager with any reputation for genius, craved and cultivated that. He exalted in the extravagant strategy. He wanted to get weird. Counsell, by contrast, likes an early lead and a slow choke-out. He wins boringly, on purpose. The three-batter minimum and curtailed September roster expansion have made that plan a bit tougher to execute than it was when he first started, but he's shown the flexibility to work around the tighter constraints. Now, his charges are showing the balance of talent and execution to consistently win in his preferred way—just in time for their final test.