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  • The Phillies are the Blueprint for the Cubs: Buy Stars, Figure it Out Later


    Brandon Glick

    For the second year in a row, the Philadelphia Phillies are in the NLCS, and they’re the favorites to win what would be their second consecutive National League pennant. The way they’ve assembled their embarrassment of riches should provide the Cubs with all the answers they need to return to the biggest stage in baseball.

    Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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    Even if you didn’t know it, you probably wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the guy running the Phillies is Dave Dombrowski. The eccentric executive has long been known for his wheeling and dealing, in both the trade and free-agent markets. He’s got something of a reputation for “draining and ditching,” whereby he spends all of a team’s budget and blows up the farm system in search of the very best players in baseball in an all-out hunt for a World Series title. That framing sounds pessimistic, and fans of teams whose farm fields he has left fallow do genuinely feel jilted, but the approach has yielded some pretty impressive results.

    He was the architect of the 2000s and early 2010s Detroit Tigers, teams who went to multiple World Series and had multiple MVPs and Cy Youngs on the roster at all times. Following that, he helmed the ship for the 2018 Boston Red Sox, who watched as MVP Mookie Betts and superstar Chris Sale shepherded them to their fourth title in 15 years. Dombrowski is also credited as the guy who assembled most of the Miami Marlins’ cores that won in 1997 and 2003.

    The track record is undeniable, and the Phillies are now the beneficiaries of Dombrowski’s go-for-broke style. This piece isn’t a request that the Cubs replace Jed Hoyer with Dombrowski--there’s no world in which that happens, for several reasons. Rather, I want to look at how the Cubs can replicate the consistent success Dombrowski has had at each of his stops. 

    After the Phillies beat the Braves in the NLDS this year (in a carbon copy from last year’s 3-1 series win), Bryce Harper had this to say about the Phillies loaded roster: “That’s why you spend the money, baby.”. 

    Those are sentiments echoed by Dombrowski many times over the years, from his blockbuster trades for Miguel Cabrera (from the Marlins to the Tigers) and Sale (from the Chicago White Sox to the Red Sox) to his lucrative free-agent signings like Prince Fielder, David Price, and Trea Turner. Dombrowski has also always done a commendable job flanking those franchise faces with other stars, like Victor Martinez on the Tigers or JD Martinez on the Red Sox--or, now, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber with the Phillies. It’s an approach reminiscent of the George Steinbrenner New York Yankees days, where the motto was simply: “Get all the best players and figure it out later”. 

    It’s the stars that often dominate baseball’s biggest stage. For every Cinderella run fueled by an unsung hero, there are three teams being carried to glory by their annual awards candidates. The fun and pluckiness of this year’s Arizona Diamondbacks (themselves charged by the star power of rookie sensation Corbin Carroll and ace Zac Gallen) pales in comparison to the raw talent of the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Phillies. 

    The Cubs have the capacity to spend on par with, if not beyond, all of those teams. Their looming decision with Cody Bellinger (expertly explored in this Athletic piece) is a big one, and should they let him walk, their decision will be even more in question following this year’s World Series, which is guaranteed to feature one of Corey Seager or Yordan Alvarez likely adding to their legendary postseason resumes with monster World Series performances. 

    Hoyer (and, by proxy, the rest of the Cubs front office) is more deliberate in his team-building than the free-spending nature of the Phillies or Rangers. The Cubs are trying to emulate teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and, dare I say, rival St. Louis Cardinals, in their annual and seemingly perpetual excellence. Yet, for all the regular-season and historical success of those teams, they’ve combined for the same number of World Series wins as the Cubs over the last decade (one). Their formula is clearly potent, but a lot of that magic seems to wear off once the calendar flips to October. 

    Baseball is different from basketball or even football in the sense that “ring culture” doesn’t permeate everything. As Giannis Antentokoumpo would say: “a season isn’t a failure just because you don’t win it all”. The baseball season is long. Keeping fans engaged with a fun team full of exciting players is still a “win” in the sports-entertainment business, even if the season doesn’t end on a win in the World Series. 

    However, that’s still the ultimate goal. That’s why we’re fans, why the players train so hard and why the front office is employed. That’s what the collective that forms a team and its fanbase is working towards. The Cubs don’t need to penny-pinch, nor overly protect every prospect in a trade negotiation. They won’t spend like Dombrowski, but they can’t operate like the Oakland Athletics. The Cubs proved this season that they’re capable and ready to make it back to the postseason. Hopefully, there’s enough foresight from Hoyer and company to build a roster capable of winning once the Cubs are back there. 

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    The Cubs scored more runs than the Phillies.  On a park adjusted basis they hit about the same number of home runs.  The Cubs had a better pythagorean record.  The Phillies most valuable position player this year was a pre-arb guy who would have been the 4th most valuable on the Cubs.  The only Phillies player who would make a combined top 5 of those teams from 2023 wasn’t even mentioned in this article(Wheeler).

     

     The lesson of the Phillies is that big market clubs don’t need to wait until the perfect moment to add, similar to how the Cubs started stacking additions with Stroman and Seiya.  Also that the playoffs are random and bullpens are important, as that’s the main difference between them at this point in their competitive cycles.

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    Dombrowski also signed the Miguel Cabrera contract in 2014.  In a few years the Phillies are going to start to suck and be hobbled with the Harper and Turner contracts as those guys (plus Realmuto, Castellanos etc) get into their mid 30s and decline.  All that to pay for a peak 90 win team.

    Would be nice if the Cubs spent more, but would rather the Cubs have a more sustainable plan and keep signing good players through their peak years.

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    The Cabrera contract isn't aging well, and nobody should have expected it to, but that's not Detroit's biggest problem.  Their biggest problem is the other poor signings they've made (Javy being one of the strongest examples) and lack of development from their minor leagues. Their 2018 and 2019 rosters are just abysmal

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    45 minutes ago, Stratos said:

    Dombrowski also signed the Miguel Cabrera contract in 2014.  In a few years the Phillies are going to start to suck and be hobbled with the Harper and Turner contracts as those guys (plus Realmuto, Castellanos etc) get into their mid 30s and decline.  All that to pay for a peak 90 win team.

    Would be nice if the Cubs spent more, but would rather the Cubs have a more sustainable plan and keep signing good players through their peak years.

    so what? They already have one trip to the WS and are on the door for another. There are no trophies for who spends money the most efficiently. 

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    1 hour ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Dombrowski has also always done a commendable job flanking those franchise faces with other stars, like Victor Martinez on the Tigers or JD Martinez on the Red Sox--or, now, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber with the Phillies.

    We all love Nick and Kyle, but

    come on now GIF by IFC

    The story of the Phillies is IMO around pitching and defense.  The Phillies were 1st in pitching WAR this year by a hefty margin.  That's thanks to their stellar top three in the rotation (Ranger Suarez is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league) and a deep bullpen.  That sort of pitching setup makes it possible for them to just smother other teams in a short series.

    The Phillies also went into another gear when they were able to put Harper at 1B and get Schwarber out of the field.  Harper's first game at 1B was 7/21.  Heading into that game the Phillies were 52-44 (88 win pace), afterwards they went 38-28 (93 win pace).

    They and the Rangers are definitely poster children for getting stars when they're available, but let's please not pretend every player we like is a star.  Harper, Realmuto and Wheeler are actual stars.  Schwarber and Castellanos are just charismatic dudes who hit a lot of dongs. 

    The difference between the Phillies and the Dodgers IMO is they pay for the legit stars and they use scouting/player development to efficiently stock their roster rather than paying "just a dudes".

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    Phillies and Cubs seem to believe in similar things about pitching. Both orgs seem to most prioritize command over velo - not that there’s not some - out of the starting rotation and will let guys work who can handle it. Both pack alot of velo into the pen behind rotations that don’t throw top of the league hard (though Cubs have been most bottom of the league since the pandemic). Strahm’s usage is very similar to Mike Montgomery’s and what Cubs try to get out of Keegan Thompson (something they can move on from pls)….

    Edited by TomtheBombadil
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    30 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

    Phillies and Cubs seem to believe in similar things about pitching. Both orgs seem to most prioritize command over velo - 

    Not sure about the Phillies, but the Cubs, no. 

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    12 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    Not sure about the Phillies, but the Cubs, no. 

    I appreciate zero effort for an explanation, tough sell to I. Call it a gut instinct but seems the franchise who threw Kyle Hendricks in game 7 of the WS, most currently employs both he and Marcus Stroman, has stocked rotations with several classic SP types over the years (Lester, Lackey, Haren, Hamels, etc), has been middle of the pack across the board with bottom velocity in recent years, and hasn’t given a job away to a prospectoftheweek with Ks and some velo puts a huge amount of Value on command and getting innings out of the rotation (or at least the guys they’d start in playoff games) 

     

    Edited by TomtheBombadil
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    1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

    so what? They already have one trip to the WS and are on the door for another. There are no trophies for who spends money the most efficiently. 

    We can't have it both ways. The Phillies won 87 games last year and 90 this year. As mentioned, the Cubs probably outperformed them this year. We can't both confidently declare that the 2023 Cubs team was a clear step below what it took to achieve success but then also say the Phillies Way was successful. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Make it as often as possible, however you go about achieving that goal.

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    2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

    I appreciate zero effort for an explanation, tough sell to I. Call it a gut instinct but seems the franchise who threw Kyle Hendricks in game 7 of the WS, most currently employs both he and Marcus Stroman, has stocked rotations with several classic SP types over the years (Lester, Lackey, Haren, Hamels, etc), has been middle of the pack across the board with bottom velocity in recent years, and hasn’t given a job away to a prospectoftheweek with Ks and some velo puts a huge amount of Value on command and getting innings out of the rotation (or at least the guys they’d start in playoff games) 

     

    I think this current iteration of the team cares most about pitch shape, pitch mix lending itself to tunneling, and other attributes like that as opposed to a simplistic "command > velo" philosophy.

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    25 minutes ago, Tim said:

    I think this current iteration of the team cares most about pitch shape, pitch mix lending itself to tunneling, and other attributes like that as opposed to a simplistic "command > velo" philosophy.

    I don’t see it as that simple at all, and definitely not an either/or option. Lots of guys who can actually pitch have plenty of stuff - Cole, Scherzer, Wheeler, Nola, Verlander, Framber, pretty much every great pitcher now and ever. The vast majority of arms are throwers, chuckers, hurlers who can be taught to throw a pretty slider down and a way as hard as they can but get clobbered trying to do anything else with it and are wiped out after a handful batters 

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    3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

    We can't have it both ways. The Phillies won 87 games last year and 90 this year. As mentioned, the Cubs probably outperformed them this year. We can't both confidently declare that the 2023 Cubs team was a clear step below what it took to achieve success but then also say the Phillies Way was successful. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Make it as often as possible, however you go about achieving that goal.

    Its the last sentence. It doesn't matter how you get in, just get in. The league best Braves and their 104 wins and the 100-win Dodgers are at home watching three 90 win teams and an 84 win team play to go to the World Series.  

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    The Phillies and the Rangers are good examples of how spending money does provide you with a better chance to compete. I am sure TR is going to use the Mets and the Padres as an example of money not buying a winning team. Just good to have a few examples of it working. I am sure Phillies fans are sitting around worrying about what happens in 2029 when Harper and Turner are old and not worth the money. They are enjoying a second year in a row of LCS play with a great chance of a second year of WS play. I would take that (again) as a Cubs fan. 

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    16 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

    The Phillies and the Rangers are good examples of how spending money does provide you with a better chance to compete. I am sure TR is going to use the Mets and the Padres as an example of money not buying a winning team. Just good to have a few examples of it working. I am sure Phillies fans are sitting around worrying about what happens in 2029 when Harper and Turner are old and not worth the money. They are enjoying a second year in a row of LCS play with a great chance of a second year of WS play. I would take that (again) as a Cubs fan. 

    If the Cubs spent what the Phillies spent this year they could have been just as good as them., that I agree  They don't have to go out and sign stars to bad contracts to be good though.

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    On 10/17/2023 at 3:27 PM, Tim said:

    I think this current iteration of the team cares most about pitch shape, pitch mix lending itself to tunneling, and other attributes like that as opposed to a simplistic "command > velo" philosophy.

    I would hope they care most about just getting outs no matter how its done.  There's more than one way to get outs.  Velo is a bit overrated because things like command, changing speeds, deception, movement are all used to get hitters out, and you need at least 2 or 3 of those to be an effective pitcher and velo doesn't need to be one of them, as guys like Maddux, Steele, Stroman and many others prove.

    I think they sometimes try to target pitchers with attributes that aren't as teachable, like command, velo, and certain types of deception (ie: sidearm throwers) and try to develop their pitch grips/shapes to get more effectiveness out of them.  This was probably the plan with Taillon.

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    13 hours ago, Stratos said:

    I would hope they care most about just getting outs no matter how its done.  There's more than one way to get outs.  Velo is a bit overrated because things like command, changing speeds, deception, movement are all used to get hitters out, and you need at least 2 or 3 of those to be an effective pitcher and velo doesn't need to be one of them, as guys like Maddux, Steele, Stroman and many others prove.

    I think they sometimes try to target pitchers with attributes that aren't as teachable, like command, velo, and certain types of deception (ie: sidearm throwers) and try to develop their pitch grips/shapes to get more effectiveness out of them.  This was probably the plan with Taillon.

    Command is extremely teachable. It's something they do not focus on in the pitch lab, from what I've been told by others. This would seem to be born out by results. 

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    1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

    Command is extremely teachable. It's something they do not focus on in the pitch lab, from what I've been told by others. This would seem to be born out by results. 

    Can you show your notes on this one? I'm genuinely curious why you think this is true.

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    6 minutes ago, Tim said:

    Can you show your notes on this one? I'm genuinely curious why you think this is true.

    There is no work to show. It's a mechanical problem that can be corrected. Before you go all ape, yes, there is a wide dispersion of ability in terms of accuracy, just as there is with velocity. But the limits of the body determine velocity, not accuracy. What determines accuracy is body mechanics, which is teachable. Some guys are going to learn to harness the natural movement of the ball to throw strikes better than others, but it's teachable, just like grip and pitch "shape". 

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    14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    There is no work to show. It's a mechanical problem that can be corrected. Before you go all ape, yes, there is a wide dispersion of ability in terms of accuracy, just as there is with velocity. But the limits of the body determine velocity, not accuracy. What determines accuracy is body mechanics, which is teachable. Some guys are going to learn to harness the natural movement of the ball to throw strikes better than others, but it's teachable, just like grip and pitch "shape". 

    Every team has wild pitchers that stay wild. Do all 30 teams ignore correcting this issue? Or is it maybe that that easily teachable?

    I imagine your response is going to point out that you're acknowledging a "wide dispersion of ability in terms of accuracy". But your OP on this topic was heavily implying that the Cubs simply choose not to address this at all.

    The Cubs actually have a lot of smart guys focused on pitcher performance. If this was a flaw that they could knock out in a few sessions, they'd do it and then move on to the next item.

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    2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

    Command is extremely teachable. It's something they do not focus on in the pitch lab, from what I've been told by others. This would seem to be born out by results. 

    You’re confused. Breslow literally said no one’s ever walked out of the lab with improved command. Velo and grips are much more coachable, orgs in general are very confident about improving velo

    Command is more nebulous, a mix of strength, conditioning, mobility, aptitude for the position and sport, makeup, time, and experience 

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    20 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

    You’re confused. Breslow literally said no one’s ever walked out of the lab with improved command. Velo and grips are much more coachable, orgs in general are very confident about improving velo

    Command is more nebulous, a mix of strength, conditioning, mobility, aptitude for the position and sport, makeup, time, and experience 

    He said they don't work on control in the lab. Not the same thing. Also, if you don't think that's a problem I don't know what to tell you. 

    Command is a repeatable motion that is consistent and reliable. 

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    2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

    He said they don't work on control in the lab. Not the same thing. Also, if you don't think that's a problem I don't know what to tell you. 

    I don’t know what to tell you besides you’re confused and/or dug in. Here’s a link to the Breslow interview from last year:

    https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-weekly-podcast-cubs-vp-of-pitching-craig-breslow/

    Tbh it’s an interesting leap, that command is easier to come by than velo and shape, when so many arms we see can hit upper 90s with a breaking ball but would struggle to throw even a couple innings 

    Edited by TomtheBombadil
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    1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

    I don’t know what to tell you besides you’re confused and/or dug in. Here’s a link to the Breslow interview from last year:

    https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-weekly-podcast-cubs-vp-of-pitching-craig-breslow/

    Tbh it’s an interesting leap, that command is easier to come by than velo and shape, when so many arms we see can hit upper 90s with a breaking ball but would struggle to throw even a couple innings 

    what good is a 9 inch vertical change or 12 inch horizontal tilt if neither of them are able to be thrown for strikes? We saw it with Steele, they just started laying off and running his pitch counts up. Movement and deception are great attributes, as is velocity, but none of it matters if the guys can't throw strikes. These kids didn't make it to draft day unless they were able to throw strikes at some point in their career. 

     

    Except for Jackson Wiggins

    Edited by CubinNY
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