Previewing the 2025 NL Central: Are Cubs Favorites With Kyle Tucker?

Since 2017, when the Cubs won the National League Central with a 92-70 record, there have been seven seasons, four of which ended with the Brewers atop the division. Only once since then have the Cubs finished the year in the top spot, and that was in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign (which doesn't count). The Cardinals won the remaining two division titles, as the Reds and Pirates have been shut out for more than a decade. 

Those latter two teams are a good place to start when discussing the NL Central hierarchy heading into 2025. The Pirates were the Central's caboose last season with a 76-86 record, with the Reds barely in front of them at 77-85. 

Pittsburgh has an obvious strength to build around: starting pitching. That mostly stems from their trifecta of aces, Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones (assuming they don’t trade one of them)—but the rest of their team leaves much to be desired. They've finished in the bottom three in the NL in runs scored five years running, and outside of outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, there isn’t much in the way of star power in the lineup. They did trade for first baseman Spencer Horwitz and second baseman Enmanuel Valdez this offseason, but those are the only moves they’ve made that have impacted the big-league roster. Even with a new right side of the infield, the Pirates need far too much help on offense to be taken seriously as a contender in the division. Until proven otherwise, the Pirates are going to be an annoying team to play (expect a lot of low-scoring affairs in Pittsburgh next year), and not much else.

The Reds are a bit more interesting, if only because their position players are actually interesting. They hired Terry Francona as manager earlier in the offseason and are bringing back a sneakily loaded roster, led by Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene. The only issue is: they haven’t done much to meaningfully advance toward their goal of contending. They selected second baseman Cooper Bowman in the Rule 5 Draft, and Nick Martinez accepted his qualifying offer. They made a notable trade to realign talent on their roster, sending second baseman Jonathan India to the Royals in exchange for starting pitcher Brady Singer, but that move feels more like a lateral move than a perfectly timed shakeup. Until they’re willing to more meaningfully supplement a talented young core, they’re going to continue to be also-rans, too.

That brings us to the Cardinals, who (for all intents and purposes) are entering a rebuild. They’ve been even less active than the Reds, unless you want to count their constant updates on trading third baseman Nolan Arenado. Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge all hit free agency, and most or all of them will find new teams at some point in the coming months. Sonny Gray could be traded, too, but things are quiet on that front for now. Either way, the point stands: St. Louis is going to be a worse team in 2025, and that likely means a second last-place finish in three years, after avoiding that fate entirely since 1990.

Thus, we arrive at the meat and potatoes of the division: the Brewers and Cubs. Milwaukee has won the NL Central in consecutive seasons and claimed three of the past four titles. They’re the cream of the crop as far as track record is concerned, though this offseason may have fundamentally altered that perception. They dealt Devin Williams in a blockbuster with the Yankees, receiving injury-prone starter Nestor Cortes and second base prospect Caleb Durbin in return.

Cortes is an upside play that comes loaded with baggage — including serving up that Freddie Freeman walk-off grand slam in Game One of the World Series — but the Brewers’ voodoo magic pitching factory will probably turn him back into an All-Star in 2025. Durbin is the more interesting piece in the deal, with speed and aggressiveness on the bases and a good feel to hit, but without any meaningful over-the-fence power. He's a versatile defender, but at his best spot (second base), he's blocked by Platinum Glove winner Brice Turang. In some formulations, Turang could always take Willy Adames’s vacant spot at shortstop—another notable loss for the Brew Crew this winter—but taking him away from his best position will only hurt the defense. More likely, Durbin will be asked to take over at third base, where Oliver Dunn currently resides.

Besides that Williams move, the Brewers have mostly been inactive. They took a couple of players in the Rule 5 Draft, but losing Adames and Williams is going to sting. They’re banking on in-house improvements from their young core, which is led by phenom Jackson Chourio. Just because they’ve lost some stars doesn’t mean they’ll be pushovers come 2025.

However, the Cubs clearly see the opening the Brewers have left them. They’ve been among the most active teams this winter, bringing in Eli Morgan, Matthew Boyd, Gage Workman, Carson Kelly, Cody Poteet, and, of course, Kyle Tucker to supplement a roster that went 83-79 last year. They’ve lost some talent, too, including Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes, but on the whole, this is a much better team on paper than it was when the season ended. If they can pull off a trade for a “big-name starter” as has been rumored recently, they’ll enter spring training as one of baseball’s most improved teams. 

Is all that change enough to bridge the gap between Milwaukee and Chicago? It’s hard to say, especially since the offseason is only halfway over, but the Cubs evidently don’t want to leave things to chance this year. Either way, the Cubs can’t stop now. Aggressiveness has been the name of the game since the calendar flipped to December, and the reward for keeping it up is a straight path to the division crown come 2025.