Pete Crow-Armstrong Is The Engine Behind Cubs' Baserunning Prowess

In case you missed it, last week I took a look at the historic start to the season that the Chicago Cubs have had on the bases. If you haven’t read that yet, I recommend doing so. In summary, they very well could break the modern franchise record for stolen bases in a season, and by FanGraphs’ Baserunning Runs (BsR) statistic, they are on pace to be one of the best baserunning teams of all time. 

Originally, I intended to take a look at Pete Crow-Armstrong’s production on the bases within my article last week. Turns out, I had so much more to say about him that I didn’t even think I could fit it all into one article.

Let’s start with the most obvious stat, again: stolen bases. With 12 stolen bases in 33 games, the young outfielder is on pace for 59 stolen bases on the season. No Cub has stolen more than 58 bases since Billy Maloney in 1905. The most any Cub has had in a single season in franchise history is 84 by Bill Lange in 1896. 

Juan Pierre stole 58 bases for the Cubs in 2006, which is the most for the Cubs in a single season in modern history. That’s the real number that PCA is chasing here. That said, I’m not taking 84 off the table for him. 

Now, let’s look at BsR. Crow-Armstrong leads baseball with 2.8 BsR, just a hair above Byron Buxton, who sits at 2.7. This puts him on pace for about 13.75 BsR for the season. As a reminder, FanGraphs does not recommend looking at BsR prior to 2002. The highest single season mark since then was Mike Trout, who had 14.3 BsR in 2012. The highest for a Cub? Pierre, again, with 8.0 BsR in 2006. History is well within reach here as well. 

Baseball Savant breaks a baserunners value down a bit further. For what it’s worth, they actually rate PCA as the third most valuable runner in baseball this season, with Corbin Carroll and the aforementioned Buxton ranking ahead of him. Specifically, he’s been worth two runs via stolen base attempts, which is third in baseball, and one run via extra bases taken, which is 12th. 

This is the part where I tell you that PCA could be even better. There’s a case to be made that he should be even more aggressive than he has been. He’s only been caught stealing once, a paltry figure juxtaposed against those 12 successful attempts. In addition to that, he sits in 12th in runs via extra bases taken partially because he has only attempted to take an extra base seven percent of the time more than the average player. Corbin Carroll, who leads baseball with two runs gained via extra bases taken, is at 23 percent. 

It should be noted, this is all circumstantial, and to a degree, based on the opportunities that you get. For example, in this particular play, he accrued -0.19 runs for holding at third. Not only was this a tough read, but with no outs and the bases loaded, this was probably the right decision. He ended up scoring on an Ian Happ sacrifice fly, anyway. 

To wrap up two straight weekends of me throwing a whole bunch of numbers at you: the Cubs are a really good baserunning team. If they continue at their current pace, they very well could end up being one of the best baserunning teams not just in franchise history, but potentially baseball history, too. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong is, of course, at the forefront of this success. If he continues at his current pace, he would also have one of the best baserunning seasons in both franchise and baseball history. The team and PCA may or may not continue this pace, but I am at least looking forward to watching this unfold the rest of the season.