Pete Crow-Armstrong Has Become a Boring, Safe Defender—Which is Great News

That Pete Crow-Armstrong is perhaps the best defender in baseball should be a shock to no one. We knew that in his years as a prospect. The glove was going to play at a high level, no matter what. Concerns about the bat? Sure. But elite sprint speed and top-tier defensive instincts (to say nothing of what he brings on the basepaths) were giving you a three- or four-win player, almost regardless of offensive outcomes. The bat almost becomes a bonus, given those other factors. 

As he approaches 175 big-league games, there hasn't been anything to deter us from buying into that narrative. By Fielding Run Value (FRV), Crow-Armstrong was the second-most valuable defender in the sport last year, with his mark of 16 tying Daulton Varsho and Jacob Young to trail only Patrick Bailey's 22. Thirteen of that came from his range, as he deployed his sheer speed in the most effective fashion. 

Yet, there was still (somehow) another level to be reached—a level where he's not only making exceptional plays look easy, but he's making them actually routine. MLB.com's Mike Petriello covered as much in an analysis centered around Crow-Armstrong's outfield jump, in particular. Therein, he covers a number of different catches that Crow-Armstrong has made on the run this season. Those range in catch probability from 10 percent to 45 percent. Petriello's piece even includes video of plays that Crow-Armstrong, specifically, has made against other defenders who have failed to make similar ones.

None of the plays required a highlight-reel catch, either. Just an exceptional jump: 

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It’s important to understand what that actually means, though. “Getting a good jump” is measured as feet covered in the right direction in the first 3 seconds after the pitch is released. Crow-Armstrong is outstanding in the first 1.5 seconds, gaining 2.2 extra feet against average. He’s tremendous in the second 1.5 seconds, too, gaining 2.9 extra feet, a top-five number.

It's difficult to overstate just how crucial the jump is. Only Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela features a better jump than Crow-Armstrong's 4.8 feet. As Petriello notes, jump is measured as feet in the correct direction in the first three seconds after the release of the pitch. You're laying a fairly significant foundation with an impactful jump. His is nearly five feet better than the average outfielder. Then you add in what's currently checking in as 96th percentile sprint speed. It's unreal. 

Given that, Crow-Armstrong is recording outs at a rate nine percent above expected. The estimated success rate on balls hit in his direction this year is 87 percent. But he's closing them out at a 96 percent clip. The route—which Petriello notes is a shortcoming of not only Crow-Armstrong, but other elite defenders—becomes immaterial when the jump is combined with the speed. Turns out, you can compensate for a lot when you're reacting and moving that quickly with your initial read.

But it's not just about making the play. Recording the out is important on its own, of course. When you're able to establish yourself as the defender making that play on your feet and under control, though, you're able to avoid some of the physical danger that comes with the territory of outfield defense. Risky dives resulting in shoulder or wrist injuries? Out. Slides in which you get your ankle caught under you? Out. Collisions wrought by uncertainty over who has the cleaner path to the catch? Out. Even more so with a pair of savvy defenders bookending Crow-Armstrong in Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker. 

The result is fewer catches that make the SportsCenter Top 10 (aside: is that even a thing anymore?), but allows for much more sustainability—both in the certainty of the play in itself, and in the long-term outcomes associated with health in avoiding the riskier options. To the untrained eye, it may be less visually appealing. But if there's a player who can make an exceptional jump and quick path look as exciting as a full-extension layout, Pete Crow-Armstrong is probably the guy to do it. In the meantime, this increased suavity makes him less likely to get hurt playing even superb defense. That counts for just as much as the extra catch or two he makes per week.