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    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

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    Featured Comments

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,540

    Posted

    Give me a Cubs 3-2 win tonight.

    • Like 1
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,015

    Posted (edited)

    11 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

    Strangely no. I have no expectations to win the World Series this year, so I am not nervous.

    I was a wreck for an entire month in 2016. 

    Same, like I said in an earlier post, this feels so far away from the WS and the whole WC round feels fake to me.  I have slight nerves but it feels nothing like 2015-2017 right now.  If they get past this round I'll be more nerves.

    Edited by UMFan83
    • Like 1
    squally1313

    squally1313 2,225

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    Anyone else nervous?

     

    Yes. I've talked myself into a corner that any particular AB, game, regular season series really doesn't matter much, just ride the up and down waves, enjoy what you can.

    Three game series? Every at bat is stupidly crucial. 

    SOFNR

    SOFNR 81

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

    Strangely no. I have no expectations to win the World Series this year, so I am not nervous.

    I was a wreck for an entire month in 2016. 

    Haha. Im kinda the opposite. I had ultimate faith in that 2016 team, even with all the history. Even when things went bad i never thought they were losing. I dont have much faith in this group but im cautiously optimistic they can have a postseason sorta like 2015. Win the Wildcard and knock off the Brewers while Cubs fans invade Miller Park. That'd be fun.

    • Like 1
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,015

    Posted

    I'm gonna be so annoyed about facing Arraez the next 2-3 days.  I hate batters that always put the ball in play.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,540

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    Anyone else nervous?

     

    I am. We're doing a live NSBB reaction to every playoff game. I'd rather do it happy.

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,015

    Posted

    We survived the first inning with Boyd.  Now he goes 7 strong.

    squally1313

    squally1313 2,225

    Posted

    Padres lineup is top heavy. The innings we have to get through Tatis and Machado are big, great work by Boyd.

    soccer10k

    soccer10k 546

    Posted

    Great top of the first. 6 more like that please.

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,015

    Posted

    For anyone interested in going to a Cubs playoff game and are in the area, tickets are down to as little as $25 (with fees included) for today.  If they win today they might be more tomorrow but still.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,540

    Posted

    Damn. Initial reaction from me was that Busch got that one. 

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,015

    Posted (edited)

    HRs taken away by the wind: 1

    Edited by UMFan83
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,015

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Who are these broadcasters?

    Kevin Brown and Ben MacDonald

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,015

    Posted

    Painted 2 pitches absolutely perfectly.  Not much you can do with that.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,540

    Posted

    ESPN K-Zone not necessarily replicating MLB.com Statcast zone very well:

    Screenshot 2025-09-30 152011.png

    Strike-2 was close, but Statcast has it as a ball. Not blaming but probably worth to keep an eye on their K-Zone and wonky strikes.

    Irrelevant Dude

    Irrelevant Dude 1,546

    Posted

    1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

    Kevin Brown and Ben MacDonald

    Not sure which is which but the color guy is already incredibly annoying.

    Jason Ross

    Jason Ross 2,540

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Not sure which is which but the color guy is already incredibly annoying.

    That'd be Ben Mac. He does color for the Orioles normally. He'll pop up a bunch during the CWS so I've heard him a bit. 

    JHBulls

    JHBulls 856

    Posted

    So looking at some of these commercials, ABC is basically the butthole of television networks? 

    Hortonhearsawho

    Hortonhearsawho 84

    Posted

    It's early but Tucker is not inspiring confidence 

    Rex Buckingham

    Rex Buckingham 702

    Posted

    I feel pretty confident that for the Cubs to advance beyond the NLDS, Tucker will have to play a big part. Need to get him right.

    Stratos

    Stratos 503

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

    Not sure which is which but the color guy is already incredibly annoying.

    Ben has the southern accent 



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