Matthew Boyd's Second Start Was Less Predictable, Making His Results Predictably Good

For the second time this young season, Matthew Boyd stepped onto the bump against an inferior opponent. Unlike his first one, however, the Chicago Cubs were able to put said opponent to bed. Rather than needing to overcome Boyd in doing so, they did so on the strength of this year's Opening Day starter. 

After his first start, Matthew Trueblood examined Boyd's outing. There was a lot of good to take from it. Most notably, he generated a high rate of whiffs against the Washington Nationals (20 on 37 swings to be exact) but was unable to avoid opposing barrels. As Trueblood pointed out, five pieces of contact came off the bats of Nats hitters at a speed of at least 103.8 MPH. It was chalked up in the piece as a sequencing issue above all, as Washington was able to key in on specific pitches in between the whiffs. 

The second time around, against the Los Angeles Angels, Boyd didn't have quite the dominance across individual pitches. But he was able to keep opposing hitters off balance enough to run up the strikeout column on his line while minimizing damage in a way that he couldn't in start No. 1. 

Here are the particulars in that first start on Opening Day: 

We've already noted the positive of the whiffs, but Boyd clearly got too reliant on his four-seam. Even for a player that had a 24 percent gap between that and his most-used secondary pitch (the changeup) in 2025, 67 percent is still screaming sequencing issues. That's much too reliant on one pitch type, especially because he only threw it 47 percent of the time last year. That's how you get a 100.8 MPH average exit velocity and four of the seven total hard hit balls in the start. Obviously, feel matters on a cold day at Wrigley, but the results are the results.

The second start, though, offered a far more sensible plan of attack: 

The four-seam is the primary pitch. He's always going to lean on it. But throwing it at a clip 12 percent under his first start, especially given the effect of the changeup on the day, is encouraging. There was a tradeoff with fewer whiffs against the former, but the changeup came in strong by running that rate up on its own.

As a result, Boyd cut his hard contact against in half (more than half, technically) with only three pieces of hard contact against him and a cumulative average exit velocity against of just 90.1 MPH (his total figure in the first start was 98.6 MPH). Against the fastball specifically, Angels hitters went for an average exit velocity of 94.8 across a similar number of batted ball events. Boyd was also able to avoid the barrel entirely, not ceding a single piece of barrel contact after allowing it one-third of the time in his first outing. 

The stuff itself is playing just fine. Boyd's K% through a pair of starts is at 45.9 and trails only Kevin Gausman here in the early going. His 21.1 percent swinging strike rate is behind only Jack Leiter. We already knew the first start wasn't an issue with the stuff itself, but the predictability of it. A little more variety can go a long way, as Boyd's two-run line in his second start can attest.