Matthew Boyd Was the Obvious Choice for Game 1 Against Padres, But It Won't Be an Easy Assignment

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Maybe, if Kevin Gausman had been fully healthy and there were no questions surrounding him, you could have made a case for him to start Game 1 of the Cubs' Wild Card Series in San Diego this week. When Gausman sprawled to make a tag in his final regular-season start and ended up with a balky left shoulder, though, the writing was on the wall—and it probably should have been, anyway. Matthew Boyd was the right choice, and when Gausman suffered even a minor malady, the veteran lefty became the only choice.

Boyd made two starts against the Padres this year. One came at Petco Park, in April, and it went poorly, but much of the trouble was caused by circumstances we're unlikely to see repeated Tuesday night. Boyd himself made a bad first-inning ABS challenge, and in the middle innings, catcher Moisés Ballesteros (yep) made another. Ballesteros struggled as a receiver all day, and being out of challenges for half the day ultimately cost the Cubs that game. Boyd also gave up key hits to Jackson Merrill and Ty France, against whom he'll have to execute much better Tuesday night, but he pitched better than his final line: 4 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts.

By the time he faced San Diego again at Wrigley Field during a scorching midsummer series, Boyd was finally getting untracked. He emerged, around then, as the Cubs' ace, and there have only been rare moments since in which anyone else seized that title. That day, Boyd gave up another 8 hits over 5 innings, but San Diego only scored 3 runs, thanks to two homers. One of those only left the park because, that day, everything was leaving the park. It was hot, and the wind was blowing out, and the teams combined for nine dingers. Even some of the hits on balls that stayed in the park didn't need to be; the Cubs' exceptional defense cracked a bit in the heat and with the ball jumping off bats the way it was.

That series came at a weather and ball-liveliness nexus that won't be repeated this week. The ball was flying very well, with reduced drag, for a stretch in the middle of the season, but it's been much more like the early season at the end.

It'll be pleasant in San Diego Tuesday night, but not hot, by any means. That should give Boyd some margin for error. He won't have to be quite as fine as he would have needed to be to hold the Padres down better than he did at the end of June, and anyway, replicating those results would be fine; the Cubs will need to win starts in which they get five innings of three-run ball in order to go anywhere this postseason.

Boyd has pitched better of late than any other Cubs starter (save, arguably, David Peterson), but there's another reason why he was the obvious choice for this outing. The Padres' one weakness, even during their hot September, is that you can put them in the rocking chair a bit, particularly as a lefty.

San Diego led the majors in OPS for the final month of the regular season. They're dangerous, and as Boyd learned right away on Opening Day this year, sometimes, hitters like these can guess right against him often enough to ruin his day. On the whole, though, the Padres' lineup is the kind you expect Boyd to thrive against. He should be able to induce them to swing early, earning some weak contact off the end of the bat and some whiffs.

It's a tall order he faces. The hottest offense in the game awaits him, and the Cubs need length from him. The ABS-influenced smaller strike zone is unfriendly to pitchers who thrive on finesse, as Boyd does. The matchup is right, though, and throughout his two-year tenure in Chicago, Boyd has been as reliable as any pitcher on the team. He just has to execute; that's what playoff basebal is nearly always about.