Kevin Gausman Has 3 Key Matchups in His Favor Against the Padres

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The Chicago Cubs were dominated from start to finish on Tuesday, falling 8-0 to the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series. Chicago was dominated by Padres right-hander Michael King, who fired seven shutout innings and allowed just one hit. Cubs left-hander Matthew Boyd was jumped early and often. It was a rather disappointing beginning to the postseason, and the Cubs are now just one loss away from that postseason run ending.

That's all in the past, though, as the focus shifts to Wednesday night for Game 2. San Diego will send right-hander Nick Pivetta to the mound. Chicago should be familiar with Pivetta, as he started Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series—a game that was a 3-1 win for the Cubs.

On the mound for the Cubs will be right-hander Kevin Gausman. Gausman was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline, and he's been a bit inconsistent since coming over from Toronto. Lifetime stats show that the Padres have had some success against Gausman, as the players on the postseason roster have combined for a .272/.307/.431 slash line with eight home runs in 202 at-bats. There are a few matchups, though, that Gausman has the advantage in. He'll need to keep it that way in Game 2.

Jackson Merrill
Merrill had a solid Game 1 against Chicago, going 2-for-4, with one of those two hits being a two-run single that officially busted the game open. The two-hit effort certainly gave Merrill some confidence heading into Game 2, but Gausman has a chance to shut that confidence down quickly.

Gausman has faced Merrill six times in his career and has yet to allow a hit to him. Three of the six at-bats have resulted in strikeouts, something that falls in line with Merrill's .220 average and 27.5% whiff rate on offspeed pitches this season. While Merrill certainly isn't one of the big bats atop the San Diego lineup, he's still an important piece in the lineup and someone that could change a game if Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are quiet in Game 2. Since the beginning of August, Merrill is batting .298/.341/.551, which weighs much more heavily than six at-bats against Gausman, but it's some comfort to know that the big righty has the right arsenal to quell Merrill's hot streak.

Jake Cronenworth
Cronenworth has the fifth-most at-bats (19) of any Padres player against Gausman, and those 19 at-bats have been a tough go. Cronenworth is 2-for-19 with six strikeouts against Gausman, a slash line of .105/.105/.105.

It will be another matchup for Gausman that isn't necessarily against one of the top bats in the lineup, but instead, against an experienced postseason player who has shown a clutch gene in previous years. Much like Merrill, Cronenworth does have the ability to make a major impact on the game and is someone that Gausman will need to keep off balance and not allow him to gain any confidence. Avoiding uprisings from the bottom half of the lineup will be crucial. Even if it's not possible to shut down the best bats in the San Diego lineup, keeping the little guys from hurting him should allow Gausman to keep the Cubs in the game.

Manny Machado
If you look solely at the career statistics, this one may not make a ton of sense. Machado has seen great success against Gausman in his career, to the tune of a .346 average with a .962 OPS and two home runs. A lot of the slugging from Machado is well in the past, though, as both of his hits against Gausman in the regular season were innocent singles to left field.

Machado did have a big night in Game 1 against Boyd, a pitcher he's had great success against in his career, but Wednesday's matchup should be different. Machado hit just .127 with a 30.2% whiff rate on off-speed pitches during the regular season, and that's the group Gausman will use quite frequently with his changeup and splitter.

The matchups between Machado and Gausman will be some of the most important at-bats of Game 2, and with the struggles Machado showed in the regular season, Gausman should have the advantage to keep a confident hitter off the board.

There's also a chance that one of David Peterson or Clay Holmes makes an appearance in Wednesday's game. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, the big bats (such as Machado and Tatis) have excellent career numbers against both of those pitchers. Chicago's staff will certainly need to bear down and make adjustments if it hopes to perform well and get to a winner-takes-all Game 3 on Thursday.