Jed Hoyer Doesn't Like to Spend on the Pen. He's Paying the Price for That Now.

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Powered (or is it propped up?) by a juggernaut offense that includes the presumptive National League MVP, the Chicago Cubs are firmly ensconced in a playoff position. They won back-to-back series on their just-completed homestand to secure their place, even as the Phillies and Padres have raised the pressure on them. With the division race over, the stretch run will be about trying to hold onto the first Wild Card spot, allowing the team to play at home in the Wild Card Series.

This season, as a whole, has been as turbulent as any. The starting rotation has dealt with blow after blow since Cade Horton went down for the season in early April, but Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, and trade acquisitions Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, and David Peterson have pitched well enough to keep them afloat. Each of them, when they're on, can provide quality starts and match up with just about anyone the Cubs will face in the playoffs. The major flaw on this roster—what has been the flaw nearly the entire season—is undoubtedly the bullpen. The bullpen sits 25th in baseball in xERA, 28th in fWAR, and 24th in saves, converting their save opportunities at a 59% clip.

The pen's struggles have been especially disappointing, because Jed Hoyer tried take a slightly different tack this winter than is his wont. He signed Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner; he re-signed Caleb Thielbar. Those aren't household names, but that was a step up in investment in the relief corps, relative to what the Hoyer-led Cubs have usually done. At the deadline, he traded for Ryan Zeferjahn, one of the highest-ceiling arms who was available—though, to be far, not the most proven or reliable.

At a certain point, though, the Cubs have to look themselves in the mirror. Spending more than was typical of him on the bullpen still left Hoyer spending less on it than he could have; he still eschewed the star relievers. Since Hoyer took over the president of baseball operations role from Theo Epstein prior to the 2021 season, he hasn't signed any reliever that would be considered a difference-maker. In that timeframe, top-of-the-market short-burst guys including Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks, Blake Treinen, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Devin Williams, Edwin Díaz (twice), Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias (twice) all signed elsewhere. The team only tried hard to sign one of them (Scott).

Not all of these deals worked out, but the Cubs’ bullpen xERA in the Hoyer era ranks 25th in the league. The largest free-agent contract given to a reliever by the Cubs in that timeframe is the two-year, $14.5-million deal given to Maton. The last time Maton pitched was in July, and he has an ERA over 6.00 on the year. The second-largest contract Hoyer handed out was to Héctor Neris: a one-year, $9-million disaster penned before the 2024 season, the year the Cubs were supposed to turn back into a contender for the first time since the World Series core disbanded.

Over the last three seasons, the Cubs have been one of the strongest defensive teams in the sport, and they added yet another Gold Glove winner to the infield with the signing of Alex Bregman over the winter. With this emphasis, it's easy to wonder if the philosophy in the Cubs’ front office is that an elite defense can support a lackluster bullpen. To their credit, it did work in 2025. The Cubs spent only $4.25 million to bring in both Brad Keller and Thielbar, who combined for 3.3 fWAR and played key roles in the playoffs, with Keller serving as the closer down the stretch.

While the now 39-year-old Thielbar returned with a modest raise to $4.5 million, Keller joined the Phillies on a two-year pact worth $22 million, which has proved to be much too costly for Hoyer. Outside of those two, the Cubs once again caught lightning in a bottle with the in-season pickup of Drew Pomeranz. The veteran southpaw, who had not pitched in the majors since 2021, came out of nowhere to produce a 2.17 ERA across nearly 50 innings. The point here is that the penny-pinching approach (combined with the breakout of Daniel Palencia) allowed the 2025 Cubs to post a bullpen xERA of 3.90, which ranked 10th overall.

However, assuming that same blueprint would again work for 2026 was iffy, and it hasn't worked. This year’s bullpen is worse than the 2024 version, where the only major-league signing was the aforementioned Neris. (That unit finished with the 21st-ranked xERA.) The 2024 Cubs barely missed the playoffs, but they had 3.0 fWAR come from Mark Leiter Jr., Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Jorge López. To put that into perspective, the 2026 bullpen’s top four, in comparison, includes Zeferjahn, Ryan Rolison, Webb, and Palencia. That quartet has a combined 0.5 fWAR, which is equal to what Miller had in 2024 alone.

For those wondering why a team would pay Iglesias $16 million per season, Luke Weaver $11 million, or even Gregory Soto $7.75 million, it's because each of those players have accumulated more fWAR than the arms the Cubs will surely be leaning heavily on this postseason. The Cubs tried to play the numbers and sign the guys that offered the highest bang for relatively few bucks, instead of chasing the arms at top of the market. Even at the trade deadline, the only move was for a guy making under $1 million. Admittedly, Zeferjahn's long-term team control is valuable, but Weaver and Hoffman have a year of control, plus postseason experience. Zeferjahn, who could be the Cubs’ highest-leverage reliever in October, has been playing the most meaningful baseball of his life over the last month and a half, and has struggled.

Thielbar and Palencia pitched well enough in their playoff roles last season, but this staff as a whole feels thinner. If one thing is certain in October, it's that nothing is, so the Cubs could win it all. Should they instead make an early exit, it’s way too easy to assume it will have had something to do with the pen. But you and I, we know that it will.