Jameson Taillon's Encouraging Return and Outsized Importance to the 2024 Cubs

Jameson Taillon was the Chicago Cubs’ biggest offseason pitching addition in the 2022-2023 offseason, signing a four-year, $68-million contract to serve as a mid-rotation arm and insurance in case of Marcus Stroman opting out of his contract and departing in free agency. In retrospect, his first season in a Cubs uniform wasn’t as bad as it often felt. His 4.84 ERA was a pretty big jump from a 4.00 mark for his career, but that was due to an extraordinarily slow start wherein the righty posted a 6.93 ERA in his first 14 appearances. Taillon still managed to throw 154 ⅓ innings last season, which ranked second on the team behind only ace Justin Steele.

The struggles the veteran did have in 2023 can be chalked up to one thing: increased damage by left-handed hitters. Lefties hammered Taillon to the tune of a .363 wOBA, according to FanGraphs. For reference, a .320 wOBA is considered average, and Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley posted a .363 wOBA last year. Essentially, every left-handed hitter that stepped into the box against Taillon last year was as productive as Riley. 

While struggling against opposite-handed batters isn’t a new thing for the Cubs, it is for Taillon. The righty was roughly split-neutral in his two seasons prior to coming to Chicago, though his overall performance in those two seasons was simply better, as well. In 2021, lefties had a .316 wOBA against him, while righties were at .304. In 2022, lefties were at .309 and righties .307. 

With that context in mind, it was reported that Taillon was tinkering with a re-worked pitch mix this offseason, including a new and improved curveball and changeup. He threw his cutter far too often last year, given its mixed results, and hope was high that the well-paid starter would right the ship in 2024.

Then, Taillon got hurt early in Spring Training, dealing with a back strain (the same injury that knocked Patrick Wisdom out for the same time frame). He was out for a month, returned to pitch in two rehab starts, and then made his season debut on Friday. If that seems like a rushed timeline, that’s because it was. The rotation has been decimated by injuries early in the season, and the bullpen has been taxed since the beginning of the West Coast trip two weeks ago. Taillon needed to come back to provide the innings. If they were high-quality innings, then all the better.

Well, so far, so good on that front. In the Cubs’ 8-3 victory over the Marlins in the first game of their weekend series, Taillon allowed three hits, walked none and struck out four, while tossing 73 pitches in five innings of work. He threw first-pitch strikes to 17 of the 18 hitters he faced. He got 12 whiffs, generated by four of his six pitches. The re-worked curve looked dominant, and he attacked hitters once he got ahead in the count.

Manager Craig Counsell had high praise for Taillon after the start, per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic: “I thought he was very sharp. He came out with lots of strikes, pounding the zone. It’s an aggressive team, so he just got ahead and finished at-bats very quickly. Really did as much as we could have expected and what we hoped for.”

Taillon himself was pleased with the start, referencing his improvement in the latter half of last season as the turning point in his Cubs career: “It just helps confirm a little bit some of the things we worked on and some of the things we thought went right in the second half. Just confirms it’s not luck. We feel like we have a real formula for when I’m at my best what it should look like. In the first half [of 2023], we weren’t seeing that. I don’t think they knew what I looked like at my best, I don’t think the catchers did, I kind of forgot what it was like.”

The Cubs are going to need Taillon to be at his best if they hope to live up to expectations this season. Shota Imanaga has looked excellent atop the rotation and rookie Ben Brown has been lights-out when called upon, but Kyle Hendricks looks cooked and Steele is out until at least mid-May. Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks can continue to hold down the back end of the rotation going forward, but they’re using up a lot of bullets as the Cubs’ starting pitching depth is pushed to its limits.

If Taillon can live up to his contract, it’ll go a long way to helping the Cubs survive these Steele-less weeks. If he continues pitching like he did Friday, the Cubs will do a lot more than just survive this season.