Is Seiya Suzuki Actually Driving Down the Cubs' Run Production?

It wouldn't be an overreaction to declare that the Chicago Cubs have been one of the worst offensive teams in Major League Baseball since the start of July. In fact, it'd be a rather objective observation, at least from a pure run production standpoint.

Since July 1, the Cubs rank 21st in the league runs scored, with 146. They're at 4.4 runs per game over that stretch. Their power has waned, with a .169 isolated power number that ranks only 15th (despite sitting fourth for all of 2025, at .184). Their contact quality has cratered, with a Hard-Hit% (38.1) that sits 27th over that stretch. They're still reaching base at a reasonable clip (.316 on-base percentage), but the other issues have prevented them from doing anything of value with such a consistent presence on the basepaths.

Woes with runners in scoring position run at the center of what has driven the team's run production into the ground; a .230 average in such situations ranks 23rd since the start of last month. It's not so much that they're striking out, but more so that they're failing to create meaningful contact in those moments. They have a fly ball rate of about 38 percent and a groundball rate of roughly 44 percent with runners in scoring position, both of which sit inside of the league's 13-highest rates. Compound those contact trends with one of the league's lowest hard contact rates, and you sort of have your answer as to why that has represented such an issue in the last six or so weeks.

There hasn't been a shortage of culprits in sapping the life out of a team that had been so good at the plate for the first three months of the year, either. It certainly doesn't help that the majority of the lineup has lost a grip on their approach. But when you look at a player like Seiya Suzuki, you get a sense of just how bad things have gotten for this Cubs lineup on a game-to-game basis. Or do you? 

As the premise above states, there's a sharp difference between what the eye test has to offer and what reality actually exists on the field. Suzuki's case is intensely reflective of that contrast, especially if you're ready to put some of the issues since the start of July on his shoulders.

In certain respects (read: power), Suzuki is having his best season as a member of the Cubs. While a 129 wRC+ checks in as only his second-best campaign after a 137 mark in 2024, he's been able to tap into the pull side to really unleash his power. As of this writing, Suzuki has .258 ISO brought to fruition largely by a Pull AIR% that sits 10 points higher than any figure he'd turned in previously (25.6). And while we should be basking in the emergence of the kind of power bat that the Cubs were lacking in previous years, there simply has not been enough production in between the displays of power to offer something consistent from a middle-of-the-order bat.

At the same time, there are myriad factors beneath the surface. Many of them are not even identifiable at this rate and those same factors still contest what the eye test might tell us. That doesn't mean we can't try.

The first failure of the eye test exists within the approach. Suzuki is, obviously, one of the more patient hitters in the league, with a swing rate that ranks within the 21 lowest in the league (41.4 percent). A natural byproduct of that is more called strikes and deep counts with little margin for error. Suzuki ranks 17th in the league in called strike rate (20.1 percent), and, anecdotally, we've seen Suzuki take a called strike three more times than any of us could possibly hope to count. It's a trend that feels more present as the team has struggled to score runs.

There's certainly a tradeoff there if you're able to parlay that patience into walks and impact contact. Since the start of July, Suzuki has done the former; his 10.0 percent walk rate actually exceeds his mark for the season (9.6 percent). Not much has changed in terms of the overall discipline, though. He's expanded the zone with slightly more regularity, but the plate discipline numbers remain fairly similar to what he turned in prior to July 1. He's still somehow he's lost some juice on the impact side, however.

The explanation for this is not quite clear. Suzuki turned in a .283 ISO across the first three months of the season. Since the top of July, it's just 179. That's a massive dip without a clear-cut explanation. The pitch types at which Suzuki is swinging have fluctuated all year in a way that isn't new. And his zone profile looks quite similar between the stretch through June 30 and the one since. 

All of this is to say that the approach has remained fairly steady with only minor blips. You could make an argument that Suzuki's patience is a flaw inherent in his game when it runs too far, but it's not a contributing factor within this recent stretch. We'll circle back to this concept, though.

Eye test failure No. 2 lives around the perception that Suzuki is part of the team's issues with runners in scoring position. Since July 1, the Cubs have the second-lowest hard-hit rate in the sport (25.8 percent). Their wRC+ as a team with RISP is a mere 81, which ranks 25th. But this isn't a problem to which Suzuki is contributing. 

Since that same point in time, Suzuki has hit .269 and reached base at a .394 clip in RISP situations. Both figures trail only Nico Hoerner among the team's regulars. Further, he's been identical in terms of his strikeout and walk rates (18.2 percent). There are issues with his contact, including a line drive rate under 10 percent, but the outcomes have actually been completely fine.

In fact, in Statcast's Run Value, Suzuki trails only Kyle Tucker in value tied to leverage spots. And here's where we return to the approach: 

This is where we might find one possible criticism of Suzuki in that he has gathered the majority of his value in pitches over the heart of the plate. He's been able to capitalize on that sweet spot, but less so when confronted with the edges of the plate (or, in this case, the shadow). Given that, it stands to reason that Suzuki could benefit from a more consistent expansion of the zone. Worst case scenario, you strike out whiffing instead of looking, which is the same outcome that we often see from Suzuki in a random plate appearance anyway. But this is a broader concept than anything that might be revealed since the start of July.

As such, what this does is support the idea that any flaw within his game does tend to exist within his patience. Discipline can serve as a bridge too far in creating offensive production, and we've seen Suzuki run into poor outcomes wrought by that patience. At the same time, this doesn't lend itself to the idea that Suzuki is a fixture within the problem of the Cubs offense at large since the start of July. If anything, he's stayed the course. 

Which means that we're not looking at a version of Seiya Suzuki that is hurting the Cubs during this recent stretch. He's liable to be a, well, liability at any point during the year. More often than not, you take the overwhelming patience because of the outcomes he's shown capable of providing. But, the completely regular version of Suzuki isn't a player that is going to help the Cubs to a quick turnaround. The meticulousness won't allow it.