In Brutal Series of Blows, Cubs Forced to Face the Specter of an Insufficient Starting Rotation

Last August 18, the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Cleveland Guardians 2-0. It was part of the signature annual kick the Crew makes to knock back all challengers and assert themselves as the rightful champions of the NL Central. It was also a new high point for Colin Rea. The Brewers had had to rely on Rea much more than expected in 2023, but they'd phased him out in August and kept him on very short leashes throughout September. He'd re-signed on a modest deal that November, but after Brandon Woodruff's season was canceled by shoulder surgery and Corbin Burnes was traded that winter, Rea emerged as an utterly unexpected de facto No. 2 starter for Milwaukee in 2024.

He could not have met that challenge more impressively. After seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts and just four total baserunners allowed that day against Cleveland, Rea had pitched 135 innings for the 2024 Crew and had a 3.52 ERA. In a season full of surprising and impressive performances, Rea's was one of the most important. The Brewers could not have won the division without him.

From that day on, though, they were a lot better off when someone else was pitching. Rea wouldn't have another good start the rest of the way. He was rocked for 10 runs in four innings in San Francisco on September 11. Twice in the final three weeks, he was pushed back or skipped in the rotation and made appearances out of the bullpen instead. All told, starting with his August 24 start in Oakland, Rea had a 7.52 ERA. The Brewers hadn't handed him the ball at all in their Wild Card Series loss in 2023, and although you'd have assumed they would in mid-August, they never did turn to him in their three-game loss to the Mets in October 2024.

All of that (not least, the nightmarish appearance in San Francisco) felt rather relevant and immediate Wednesday night, as a fairly different Giants team did a fairly similar thing to Rea and boat-raced the Cubs, eventually winning 12-3. It's not that Rea's success to this point has been entirely fake, and it's certainly been meaningful, but you need to know this, and you (or at least the Cubs) needed to keep it in mind all along: Rea is a guy who runs out of steam at the end of a full season. That's why last year was the first time he even got a chance to pitch all the way through one as a big-league starter, or at least a facsimile of one.

The hurler has made some important adjustments this year, and he has a chance to find success from time to time even down the stretch. He's not an automatic loss, if you have to hand the ball to him to start a playoff game. That shouldn't be the plan until other options have been exhausted, though, because his decade-plus in pro ball provides ample evidence that he won't have his best blend of stuff and command by the time the calendar flips to September, let alone October. Rea kept the team in the game during his previous outing, a 4-3 win over the Brewers, but he also walked five and struck out just two in that contest. The cracks are starting to show, and they're not merely the product of random fluctuation. They're part of a systematic tendency to fade a bit, which is far from unique to Rea and has to be baked into your evaluation of him.

A few weeks ago, a Cubs fan might fairly have held out hope that that wouldn't matter much. Now, though, it's fair to look around and wonder just how well the Cubs can get from here to the end of the regular season, let alone what happens when the playoffs begin. Jameson Taillon went back on the injured list Tuesday, with a groin issue the team insists is minor. That might be true, and this might be purely about maintenance, but it's the second time Taillon has been shelved just when the team seemed to need the stability of a veteran starter every fifth day the most. On Tuesday night, after the Taillon news was announced, Matthew Boyd had his fourth shaky outing in the last six. 

Boyd isn't kaput, either, but the Cubs are much more reliant on him than they are on Rea (or even Taillon), so his unsteadiness is even more concerning. His command has wavered badly, after looking masterful for the entire first half. With 153 1/3 innings pitched, Boyd has gotten more outs this year than in 2022, 2023 and 2024 combined. It's fair to wonder whether the ability to control and manipulate the ball the way he has for so long can hold up much longer for him, before he'll need an offseason to recharge. 

A bit of command erosion indicates that Boyd and Rea, in their mid-30s, are getting to points their bodies are having a hard time adjusting to, because they really haven't done this before—or haven't done it in many years. For Cade Horton, that subtle sign was the blister that took him out of his start against Milwaukee last week. He came right back and dominated the Angels, but no one is likely to forget that he, too, is pitching past any precedents his body understands.

Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad should be solid starters down the stretch. Beyond them, though, lie major questions even about some of the hurlers who have performed best for the Cubs this season. The loss of Justin Steele, the inability of Taillon to stay on the mound, and the busted bet on Michael Soroka all loom large at this moment. They have 29 games left to play this regular season. They only need to win, perhaps, 10 of them to ensure that they reach the postseason, but if they want to host the Wild Card Series matchup in which they're most likely to face the San Diego Padres, they probably need to go 15-14 or 16-13. At this moment, that feels like a tall order.

The team's bullpen is solid, but it's neither spectacular nor overwhelmingly deep. Craig Counsell can't simply offload the middle innings he no longer wants to depend on Rea or Boyd or Horton to occupy to the pen, because he doesn't have the horses out there. He has to spend at least the next fortnight managing largely to keep people healthy and let his struggling arms work through a period of adjustment, hoping they and their bodies can lock back into a groove by the time the bunting is hung from the railings. Two losses in San Francisco are not a major problem; the Cubs are almost certain to make the playoffs even if they're swept out of town by Logan Webb Thursday. On and off the field, though, this trip has now begun to demonstrate where the team's weaknesses are and what the biggest challenges will be as they race toward the finish line of the season.