Exactly How Bad Is Christopher Morel At Third Base?

Four innings later, in the top of the sixth, Morel fielded a routine ground ball with two outs and runners on first and second and, of course, airmailed the ball over Michael Busch’s head at first base, allowing the Rockies to score a run and prolonging the inning. This has been the Christopher Morel at third base experience in a nutshell: he gives, and he takes away. 

Last week, I was watching the Dodgers game as I drifted off to sleep, and they were talking about Mookie Betts’ shift to playing shortstop this season. Betts had mentioned to the broadcast crew that he thinks his new challenge on the defensive side of the ball has helped him be more successful at the plate. It’s easier not to be laid back on offense when so much of your attention is on the defensive end. Even if this is only anecdotal, it does make sense to me. After all, the phrase “a watched pot never boils” was coined for a reason. 

One week and change into the season, I wonder if Morel is experiencing something similar. Through Friday’s games, he has a 157 wRC+. We’re still dealing with a small sample size, but there are reasons to think it might be sustainable. His strikeout rate is way down, and he is making much better swing decisions: fewer pitches out of the zone and more pitches in the zone. 

The issue? As alluded to earlier, the Cubs’ young slugger has struggled defensively. He has struggled so much that he rates as the worst defensive player in baseball by almost any publicly available metric. Fangraphs uses its Defensive Runs Above Average metric to measure defense across positions. They estimate that Morel has cost the Cubs 2.7 runs in the field this season. The next closest player in baseball is Nick Castellanos, a notably poor defensive player at -2.4. 

Baseball Savant uses Fielding Run Value to measure defense. Morel is the only player to be worth -3 runs of Fielding Run Value. If Outs Above Average is more your preference to measure defense, he is one of seven players worth -3 Outs Above Average, according to Fangraphs. The impressive, or perhaps very unfortunate, thing about this is that Morel has accrued that much negative defensive value in just 28 innings in the field. The six other players who have been worth -3 Outs Above Average have all played at least 37 innings in the field, and five of them have played at least 50 innings in the field. 

Of course, as with everything this early in the season, sample size deserves to be mentioned. Dansby Swanson is currently rated as a poor defensive shortstop at this point in the season, and I don’t think anyone is concerned about him. However, while one week of defensive data shouldn’t be enough to conclude someone, it can be enough to start tracking a potential trend. Swanson has an entire career of being a superb defender to point to. While Morel wasn’t quite this bad in his 2022 sample size at third, he has no record of defensive success to rely on, and he isn’t exactly passing the eye test, either. 

So much has been made about the decision to play Morel at third base this season, and it appears that Craig Counsell is sticking by that decision, at least based on any postgame quotes he has given. The Cubs’ manager keeps saying that getting Morel out there every day will be the key to him improving. For the record, I agree. I believe Nick Madrigal is best deployed as a part-time player, so the Cubs don’t have a better option at the hot corner right now. Not to mention, with the way Morel is swinging the bat, he has to be in the lineup daily. 

My concern is whether the bat regresses from elite to above league average. How long can the Cubs, who will likely be fighting for a playoff spot all year, trot out one of the worst defensive players in baseball at third base? If it doesn’t start to improve, that noise will continue to get louder, and it will put Craig Counsell’s decision-making to the test early on in his tenure with the Cubs.