Alex Bregman's Numbers Paint A Hot Start In A Poor Light

From a run production standpoint, there hasn't been much to be impressed with as far as the 2026 Chicago Cubs are concerned. Prior to the series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays, they rank 18th in runs (37), 21st in isolated power (.129), and 19th in collective wRC+ (89). In short, it's a below-average offense in the early going. Across the board, though, there are some underlying elements of the process that look quite good, and free-agent signing Alex Bregman is leading that charge. 

When the Cubs brought in Bregman, the book on him was a hitter who commanded the strike zone. While he wasn't going to sit up near the top of the walk rate leaderboard, he was able to drive quality contact and maintain strikeout avoidance on the strength of that keen eye. As easy as it is to be frustrated with the cumulative returns of the lineup thus far, it's hard to argue against the idea that Bregman is giving the Cubs exactly what they could've hoped for. 

The stats themselves are not terribly indicative of a player who has demonstrated early returns on a massive five-year contract. Through roughly 40 plate appearances, he's gone for a .167/.268/.333 line with a wRC+ of only 78. His contributions to the overall run production came in the form of a pair of home runs against the Washington Nationals in a game that the Cubs ultimately lost. But good process should, eventually, yield positive results, and Bregman has very much demonstrated such early on. 

It's a minuscule sample, but, to date, Bregman is exactly who the team thought he was: 

The most essential elements of the above are reflected in the approach and the resulting quality of contact. First is the fact that Bregman's chase rate is in the 100th percentile. His 6.9 percent chase rate is nearly three points below that of Baltimore's Taylor Ward, who ranks second in that category. When he does swing, he's making contact as reflected in a whiff rate that sits as the 18th-best and a strikeout rate that ranks 22nd. What's more is that he's able to drive quality contact as a result. 

Rather than use that patience to drive up his walk rate (which is still of quality on its own), Bregman is putting balls in play and doing so in an all-fields fashion: 

That was one of the positives with Bregman as a right-handed hitter playing his home games at Wrigley Field. He doesn't have to rely on dead pull power that could be heavily tamped by questionable park factors. Instead, his contact has found its way all over the field. And it's good contact, reflected by a 96th percentile hard-hit rate that ranks ninth in the league overall. 

These are all, objectively, positive things. While we can't say that this kind of process has yet contributed to a rather feeble Cubs offensive attack, it all sets the stage for Bregman to begin contributing regularly when the offense begins to find a groove for itself. 

After all, fortunes haven't favored Bregman in the slightest to this young point in the season. His batting average on balls in play sits at a brutal .138, which is one of the 10 worst marks in the sport. His current wOBA, at .278, would represent a career low. However, he's working with a .354 xwOBA that aligns much more with his career average from that standpoint (.362). The process is there, even if the results haven't been.

Luckily for both Bregman and the Cubs, we're talking about a nine-game sample. The conditions at Wrigley, where the team has played the majority of their games thus far, haven't been super favorable to get the offense moving in the right direction. Trends like the ones Bregman has demonstrated thus far have a way of evening out over time. If history can be trusted, it shouldn't be long before the star third baseman begins dragging his stats back to where they belong.