3 Cubs Pitchers Due For Regression (and How They Can Make it Not Matter)

The Cubs relied on a trio of arms last season who performed well but looked a bit suspect. With the 2025 season around the corner and each of these arms returning, it’s worth looking at what we could expect this season and how they can overcome the inevitable regression and continue their success.

Tyson Miller
It’s always fair to be skeptical of a 29-year-old reliever who suddenly posts a 2.32 ERA over 60-plus innings, and Miller is no exception. His expected ERA, FIP, and xFIP each point to his sterling ERA being a season-long overperformance. He struck out only 23% of opposing hitters, and opponents had just a .203 batting average on balls in play, which is difficult to count on repeating. Miller’s profile points to a reliever with more of a 3.50-4.00 ERA.

While we could see this regression in 2025, his performance wasn’t a complete fluke. Miller is a master of commanding his repertoire, as evidenced by his 4.7% walk rate. His ability to locate also contributes to his ability to avoid hard contact, and his .220 expected batting average allowed in 2024 wasn’t too far off from his BABIP. Mix in the fact that Miller shouldn’t see as many high-leverage situations (given the Cubs' additions to the bullpen this winter), and he should still be a solid contributor once again—once he's ready to come off the IL with his hip impingement.

Ben Brown
Brown’s raw stuff is unmissable, but his limited repertoire likely contributed to the under-the-hood stats pointing to some regression headed his way. His 3.58 ERA was backed up by FIP and xFIP, but his expected ERA of 4.17 reflects his tendency to give up loud contact.

Brown was in the 1st percentile in opponents' average exit velocity and barrel rate, and more developed scouting reports this season could exacerbate this concern. His two-pitch mix gives opposing hitters less to worry about, despite his high-90s heater and wipeout breaking ball. Adding even one more usable offering into the mix could go a long way in forcing weak contact and being able to build off of his strong rookie season. If Brown sticks to just the fastball/breaking ball combo, especially if he finds his way to the rotation again, the league will be even more prepared for him in 2025.

Nate Pearson
Acquired at the end of July, Pearson helped solidify the Cubs bullpen. His 2.73 ERA with the Cubs was helpful, but indicators point to an ERA closer to the low to mid-4s. Pearson stranded runners on base an unsustainable 88.8% of the time after being acquired, and only struck out 22.3% of opposing hitters. Batted-ball luck was his best friend, which is odd for such a high-octane arm.

The Cubs went to work tweaking his pitch mix, reducing his four-seam usage by around 5% by the end of the season and playing around with increases in his slider and curveball usage in the final two months. Both breaking balls are legitimate swing-and-miss pitches, and while their usage was inconsistent in Pearson’s time in a Cubs uniform, reducing his fastball and finding the right mix to draw the most whiffs is the likely path to staving off regression and taking Pearson’s game to another level.

The Cubs' pitching staff cost them dearly in 2024, but this trio was a stabilizing force. While it wasn’t enough for the Cubs to make it to October, they hope they can count on the group to help them over the hump this time. If Miller, Brown, and Pearson can be successful again this season to complement the offseason additions, this Cubs pitching staff will leave last year’s in the rearview mirror.