Episode 13: Matt Shaw’s Triumphant Return

Shaw's rebound has been really exciting but there is still plenty of cause for pause. His BABIP and EV scream a lot of luck. Now, his all-fields approach portends well to a high BABIP but not .480. And there has still been a fuckton of weak contact, as his EV is 84.5 since his return. Regardless, I believe he will end up at league average or better and he looks like the best glove at 3B without a shred of doubt. You have to love that he brings another versatile, fast, weapon to the offense. 

Taillon just gets sloppy/lazy. Too many pitches catch the heart and not enough live in the shadow, to the eye. I haven't looked at the maps. He just doesn't always seem dialed in. 

Seiya is avoiding the slump so far this year. He's been really consistent. 

If Gallagher has a couple more starts like that he'll join Wiggins in AA. He appears to hide the ball really well. His action is long and whippy, but the ball emerges out of nowhere from over-the-top. 

 Rojas is friggin killing it. He needs a promotion.

29 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Shaw's rebound has been really exciting but there is still plenty of cause for pause. His BABIP and EV scream a lot of luck. Now, his all-fields approach portends well to a high BABIP but not .480. And there has still been a fuckton of weak contact, as his EV is 84.5 since his return. Regardless, I believe he will end up at league average or better and he looks like the best glove at 3B without a shred of doubt. You have to love that he brings another versatile, fast, weapon to the offense. 

Taillon just gets sloppy/lazy. Too many pitches catch the heart and not enough live in the shadow, to the eye. I haven't looked at the maps. He just doesn't always seem dialed in. 

Seiya is avoiding the slump so far this year. He's been really consistent. 

If Gallagher has a couple more starts like that he'll join Wiggins in AA. He appears to hide the ball really well. His action is long and whippy, but the ball emerges out of nowhere from over-the-top. 

 

 Rojas is friggin killing it. He needs a promotion.

I think you're over concerned on the the EV with Shaw. This is kind of what his profile looks like. He hits a lot of baseballs. and what that does is tend to deflate the EV. He's going to trade weak contact for strikeouts. It'll help him run a high BABIP with the speed as well. There's a pretty strong correlation between whiff% and low EV, hard hit% and the like. Shaw isn't probably in the "Nico Hoerner HR anemic" category, but he's someone who's going to make enough contact that this will probably be a feature, not a bug.

So far he's got a .307 xwOBA and a .314 woBA, so I don't think there's a lot to worry about. His overall BABIP is .333 on the year - that's really doable for Shaw.  

Like, I don't think he's going to run a .481 BABIP like he has since he's returned. But that's also what a hot-streak looks like. He's running a 173 wRC+ over that time, and I don't think he's 73% better than league average either. But he also has five doubles, lots of 100mph contact...so it's not an accident. 

He ran lower EV in Triple-A as well. I think it's just who he is; he'll have a deceptively low EV and a higher BABIP. But it's kind of baked in to the profile. 

Most importantly thanks for listening, man! Sincerely. I'm a bit humbled people want to spend an hour listening to me. My students are forced.