Why Danny Jansen?

By an order of magnitude the catcher position has been the most problematic spot on the 2024 Cubs.  The difference in catcher WAR between the 30th ranked Cubs and, for example, the 15th ranked Astros is 3.4 wins.  Meaning if the Cubs had average production from the position they'd likely be over .500 right now.  The offense in particular has been so bad that it has single-handedly cost the Cubs a quarter of a run per game at the plate.

Danny Jansen is a name most are probably familiar with, as with the Jays' catching surplus he's been in a number of rumors over the last few years.  He has *major* durability concerns, but on a rate basis he has been the 5th best catcher in baseball (4.5 WAR/600) since the start of 2021.


Why Now?

The Cubs as an organization place a premium on a catcher's soft skills.  They want a field general and a pitcher whisperer behind the plate, and offense is a secondary concern.  They're not alone in that regard.  The Yankees, Rays, Astros, and Dodgers have all at different points over the last 5-10 years made a similar emphasis.  But clearly there is a limit to what level of offensive ineptitude they can accept and what Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya have done to this point in the year passed it.

The best way to assess those soft skills is directly.  You could chat with former teammates and coaches on background, but the best way to know if Jansen will mesh well with Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga is to have them work together.  If you trade for Jansen prior to the deadline, you have two months to evaluate him specifically with this team, these coaches, this technology, etc.  He also gets a chance to get acclimated and can ideally hit the ground running next April for what needs to be a much more competitive season.


The Cost

As Cubs fans we know that catchers do not fetch high returns at the trade deadline.  The best Willson Contreras could net two years ago before Houston ownership stepped in was Jose Urquidy, an up and down SP with intriguing stuff.

While Jansen is better than Contreras on a rate basis, his Mr. Glass level durability likely means the cost will be even lower.  Two 40 FV level prospects akin to what the team gave up for Jeimer Candelario last summer feels like the upper limit of what Jansen might cost.  Honestly it will probably be a good bit lower.

Next Year

Just as catcher has been the biggest hole on the roster in 2024, prior to any external additions it projects to again be so in 2025.  I am not totally out on Miguel Amaya as a viable major leaguer, and Moises Ballesteros has potential to impact the position, but unlike the bullpen or third base there's zero argument that we can just roll into 2025 relying entirely on internal options at catcher.

Jansen, along with Travis D'Arnaud, are the two starting caliber catchers set to hit the FA market.  D'Arnaud seems likely to stick in Atlanta so the Cubs' options over the winter are probably Jansen or the trade market for that external support.  There don't appear to be a ton of teams looking to add catching this winter, but getting Jansen in house and letting him fall in love with Wrigley does give you a chance to make sure you're not left holding the bag over the winter.


This Year

Let's also not forget this year.  The team is probably a bit too far out to make a successful run at this point, but with playoff odds right around 10% they're squarely in the "it wouldn't be crazy" part of the win curve. 

This move would address the black hole at catcher, while knock on wood internal reinforcements appear to be turning around the bullpen.  It's likely too little too late, but a Jansen trade would not be a complete waste of on-field value because we're not quite yet at the point where 2024 wins are meaningless.

tl;dr

The Cubs should trade for Danny Jansen this month as an audition of sorts to see if he's the guy next winter.  The cost shouldn't be high and the position has been so poor the potential impacts are actually quite large.