Hello Cubs World,

in this blog entry I'll quickly review the "locked in" members of the 2026 13-man pitching roster, plus the top  minors/injury arms on standby. Taking a hybrid approach, we will look at both the role each pitcher will play and the "swiss army knife" value of the player - which, if you've been following my writing, is really all about having a maximally diverse set of nasty pitches and pitching styles. 

TLDR Version: I project a #5 MLB Rotation, #10 Bullpen. Great Swiss Army Stuff, but overall Role Fit not ideal. 

The Rotation 

Welcome Edward Cabrera. I am in the camp that sees him as a breakout #2 quality pitcher, after he made key adjustments in 2025. Still, as a Cub, he won't likely need to fill a top-rotation role for post-season play. I think he will continue to be limited in innings to the 100-150 range, but perhaps more deliberately this time. His pre-ASB talents make good sense when paired with a post-ASB Justin Steele.

None of our 6 rotation guys will get optioned - and, Colin Rea and Javier Assad are being paid to hold down the long relief roles already. So, how best to use this "extra starter" when Steele returns? Imagine this: Steele and Cabrera both get pitch-limited to conserve them for the post-season. Cabrera give us 15 starts (<80 innings) while Steele is recovering. Then, around July 15, Steele takes over on a 80-pitch limit. Cabrera becomes the 3-4 inning long reliever behind Steele, on a 50-pitch limit. Steele would amass around 100 innings, and Cabrera, 130. They'd still get skipped a few times on minor injuries, for guys like Rea or Assad.  

At any rate, we will have enough reliable guys for a post-season rotation -- Horton, Boyd [yes, he'll be reliable], Steele, Taillon -- that Cabrera will be forced into the bullpen for a variety of reasons, along with Imanaga, for the postseason. ON THE OTHER HAND, if Cabrera manages both insane AND healthy baseball, Steele could get that bullpen bump.  

Some teams boast a better 1-2 punch at the very top - Horton isn't quite a Skubal or Skenes, and Boyd struggled in September. However, few teams have this sort of rotation depth other than perhaps the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies. None of THEIR top 5 starters should seriously be labeled as anything below a #3 talent. We are in a similar boat. 

For proof, look at our 6th best starter, Jameson Taillon - a consensus #3 type arm!!! That's very impressive, and the deepest group Tommy Hottovy has had in training camp since their 2016 Team. Even our backup plans have backup plans: our 2 swing guys (Rea, Assad) are #7 and #8 in line for mid-season starts, yet both would hold rotation spots on 20 or more MLB teams!!!!

Furthermore, our AAA guys are fierce. Jaxon Wiggins is projected as yet another #2 type arm by 2027, and Birdsell as a Rea or better. Ben Brown had some outstanding games, so his stats were grossly skewed by his 3 worst performances. I'm not giving up on him, and neither is pitching coach Hottovy. Although he's a bullpen arm on this current roster, if he can increase his improved hard changeup vs. lefties to 15% use -- and, find one similar off-tempo pitch, such as a slider, cutter, or splitter he can throw 5 strikes a game against righties -- he suddenly becomes another juicy #3-4 level starter! 

The Bullpen

... is, as usual, going to be better than projected. The Cubs have proven they know how to tweak solid guys and make them better. Let's look at the new additions.

Hoby Milner is a legit Lefty specialist. Phil Maton was a great pickup as the most reliable soft contact ground inducer - an ideal high leverage "fixer" who bails out starters by drawing double plays when you need them the most. This role is grossly underappreciated by the media, but its every bit as important as a closer. Caleb Thielbar was a steal at 4.5 Million - I thought he'd get 8 million as a mercenary. So that's a huge win. His portfolio features an elite knuckle curve and strong changeup, and he's proven he can handle top leverage innings against both sides of the plate. Even Jacob Webb was a cheap working class 1.5 mm contract to compete for a crowded room of talent. He's above average and yet cheap to cut if he gets dinged up.   

The Hunter Harvey Quandary
Me and everyone else has exactly one quibble: Hunter Harvey. This one "high upside closer potential" move may have dropped our bullpen rank ~5 spots, relative to landing a top free agent like Robert Suarez. Although he flashes elite stuff and improved command, he has one of the worst injury resumes in the league. 6 million on this seems like a weak attempt to find a second closer-type arm to pair with the studly, but sometimes vulnerable, Daniel Palencia. Danny Boy's 4-Seam-slider dependency isn't diverse enough to deal with every type of elite hitter, particularly lefty bombers. Harvey's nasty mix does. Still, even if Harvey "works out", he'll be a 40-50 inning type of presence who misses at least 2 months of action and may never see the post-season.

Nearly everyone, including me, hoped they would finally spend on a serious multi-year, 70 inning type of solution, like a Robert Suarez. Such guys are indeed volatile contributors, but over a long period the best of the best usually prove their worth. Frankly, the Harvey roster spot may also be blocking the development of Luke Little, Ben Brown, and so on. There's one too many vets. 

On the flipside, let's put it this way: if Harvey puts it all together, he is a $10-$15 million/year type of talent, so it could work out to be a genius signing for only one year... but the Cubs underspent their true potential (as usual). The Braves gave Suarez exactly his worth - 3 years, $50 mm, so the perfect high-leverage option missed on his fit to Wrigley Field. Overall, the Harvey signing signals loudly that the Cubs will trade for their elite high leverage guy mid-season- an annual ritual that never matches expectations. Kittredge was good help in 2025, for example, but not scary good. I feel as if the Craig Kimbrell miss set us back half a decade of gun shy Hoyerism. 

Swiss Army Stuff

Ideally, you want a full portfolio - every type of guy to strike out every type of hitter. This includes a balanced blend of lefty/righty, lots of stuff, pitch mixes peppered with exotic movement and pitch types, a repertoire of elite, freaky strikeout pitches, and enough soft contact inducers to get out of any jam. This club has plenty of low arm slots (Cabrera, Milner, Maton, for example), Many lefties (although we are projected to be 1 lefty short in the bullpen on Opening Day, we've got Little and Martin ready to go), a top-flight list of freaky pitches (Cabrera's hard change and knuckle curve, Imanaga's splitter, Steele's sweeper, Maton's cutter, and so on). MOST IMPORTANTLY, the Cubs finally have worked up to showing above average stuff and velocity totals across their entire roster. It's been many years since they could say they had as much raw peak horsepower (Palencia, 103, Harvey 99, Horton 98, Cabrera 98) as elite command/control/complexity (Steele, Boyd, Taillon, Imanaga, Maton, Thielbar, Rea, Assad).  

The main knocks have to do with the "high leverage" thing. Imanaga and Boyd showed late season decline, which is never ideal for a starter. Palencia is a solid but not elite closer, due to his elite velocity but limited repertoire. Thielbar is 39 and may be in decline from here on out. Milner's elite for lefties, but with a 3 batter rule, he's often exposed for being quite bad against righties. Still, the overall depth continues to be impressive, with an insane number of above average guys in camp, even buried in AAA. Perhaps the team strength is its 10 deep stack of viable starters that are all better than the BEST PITCHER ON THE COLORADO ROCKIES - buried guys like Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Jaxson Wiggins that all would have rotational jobs in 2026 somewhere. 

RATING SCALE: 

A = Meets Championship expectations

B = Above Average League expectations

C = Below Average League expectations

D = AAAA type of bubble talent 

F = Minor league only 
Without further ado, here's my best guess at the Opening Day pitching roster:

The Rotation                      Role Grade         Note                     Swiss Army Grade         Note 

1 R Cade Horton                A   Young but Elite swagger         A Classic Power mix w/extension

2 L Matthew Boyd            B   Gold Glove but lost steam       A Excellent Power/Control balance

3 R Edward Cabrera         A    Insane Stuff, Injury bug          A Unique 5-pitch Power&Nastiness

4 L Shota Imanaga           B   #3 but homer vulnerability     A 6 control pitches led by splitter 

5 R Jameson Taillon         A   #3 in the #5 Hole!                    B Fastball-heavy corner painter  

Top Minors and Injured Guys - Should collectively See 22+ starts in 2026

6 L Justin Steele                 A  All-Star may see bullpen        B Top command, but 2-pitch heaviness

7 R Jaxon Wiggins             A  2027 Imanaga Replacement    A Excellent power mix w/ nasty splitter
8 R Brandon Birdsell         B  2027 Taillon Replacement       C Lacks a true plus-plus pitch
9 L Jordan Wicks               C  Probably his last Cub year       D Needs a new plus pitch, +2 mph  
10 R Connor Noland          C  Phil Maton but as Swing Guy   C Nasty breaks, but MLB fringe velocity   

The High Leverage Crew- Locked in, 200+ innings

1 R Daniel Palencia (closer)    B Not a top 10 closer yet         B 102 4-seam, slider: use changeup plz!

2 L Caleb Thielbar(8th setup)A Great vs L or R, hale 39        A 4 good pitches, elite knuckle curve

3 R Phil Maton(fixer/setup)   A Elite junk vs. R, reliable          A 5 pitch king of weak contact, w/ K's. 

The Lefty Specialist: Super Safe Job

4 L Hoby Milner                    B Lefty killer but righties kill       A lowest lefty arm slot, great mix

Low Leverage Relief - Their Jobs Aren't Safe, but High Upside

5 R Hunter Harvey               B the late inning, low lev. guy      A elite, nasty power mix if healthy

6 R Jacob Webb                   B underrated midgame option     B pretty nasty ride/break, but slow

The (what a luxury!) Swing/long Guys - Each expected to go 2-3 innings every fourth game. 

7 R Javier Assad                 A amazingly not traded yet          B great mix but no heat or plus pitch 

8 R Colin Rea                      A a real luxury as a swing             B Very similar to Assad, but more heat

Top 4 Minors Arms, with expected replacement role

9 L Luke Little                   B Proven lefty, first man up             B Simple mix but great velocity

10 R Ben Brown                 B Great stuff, Assad/Rea backup    C Desperately needs 1 more pitch

11 R Porter Hodge            C Struggled 2025, Harvey/Webb     B Great stuff, needs control

12 L Riley Martin                C Milner/Thielbar, unproven             B Great junk, needs an elite pitch

Side note: Which of these starters should we extend in 2026 - Boyd, Imanaga, or Taillon?

My best guess is Matthew Boyd is the only one of the three extended. He's demonstrated an unlocked level of higher play, leadership ability, Gold Glove fielding, and should be able to handle longer seasons now. Due to his age, I forecast a 2-year, 50 MM contract for 2027 and 2028 with a 3rd year 20 mm club option/5mm buyout.

Taillon has served us well, but he's become "just another guy" in our crowded rotation. He's already "right priced" around $17mm annually. Taillon could fit in a #3 role on a mid-market team like Diamondbacks, or a #4 on a team like the Mets. Imanaga has been a fun personality and great asset, but I don't think we should outbid his highest bidder in 2027. I expect him to carry a 3 year, $65mm price tag- precisely the range that we didn't want to pay, but someone else will. Why? simple: He belongs in a long-ball starved stadium, where his "tendencies" won't hurt. Imanaga would give up 20% fewer homers in Detroit, Pittsburgh, or San Francisco -all teams that are hoping to contend in 2027 and need his help.  Luckily, Steele is under contract for 2027.

In my preferred scenario the 2027 rotation is Horton, Boyd, Cabrera, Steele, Wiggins with Rea and Assad still as swing/long relief, and the quite serviceable Birdsell still the next man up from AAA. I used to want to move Assad, but now it seems smarter to keep him around, as his best work has come in multi-inning pen appearances. Finally, there's a realistic chance that Wiggins will be a sub 3 ERA type of stud as early as then. All that adds up to a long-term sunny outlook for the rotation.

I just wish Hoyer found that ONE SPECIAL GUY to finish this year's bullpen. Here's hoping Hunter Harvey delivers.