cubbieinexile

Just like nobody kills anybody, or nobody uses drugs because they don't want to go away for life. No amount of punishment has ever been enough to solve anything. Jails, punishment, secret police, torture, none of it has stamped out the ills of society. If anything it just magnifies the problem by making it more secretive, more efficient, and more dangerous.

According to BP Grudz through 134 games has been worth +1 runs above average overall. Walker through 107 games has been worth +3 run above average overall.

I doubt they could do what Oakland did. Unless the Brewers can develop 3 very good to great starting pitchers it is going to be extremely unlikely that they can keep their salaries down and compete at the same time. Not to mention that it is already apparent that they are not going to follow the A's model. Next year the Brewers are going to have about 30 million tied up in 5 players, around 38 million and 6 players if the pick up the option on Cirillo which I don't think they will.

Pitching staffs opinion is only one side of the coin. Its quite possible that Grudz is the better defensive player (okay more then possible) but still have less value to his team then the inferior defensively Wallker. I think Walker is/was the better overall player. AS for Eckstein and winning it all. Just because you are there doesn't mean you are necessary. Bob Brenly and the Arizone Diamondbacks won a world series. That doesn't mean that Bob Brenly was an important reason why they won. Dusty Baker managed the Cubs to two winning seasons in a row, that doesn't mean he is an important reason why they had two winnings seasons. As for Rodriguez do you know the abilities of every single reporter out there? Or more importantly does the Tribune or Daily Herald? Okay so the Cubs didn't know about Rodriguez, you know what in about two years its quite possible that nobody is going to know about him again. Rodriguez is probably just another Bo Hart.

Oh and everybody wants to act all high and mighty when it comes to other people but when it concerns them they want everybody to be leniant. The best thing I can think of to say is would you want that to happen to you. One incident regardless of why it happened and you can no longer work in your chosen profession? One incident and you are banned for two years? In life and in society we are given plenty of chances but for some reason we hold are athletic entertainers to a higher standard then we wish others to hold us too. Nobody ever asks a police officer to write them a speeding ticket.

Except your heroes didn't do it on talent alone. Probably every single athlete in professional sports history has looked for an artificial edge. Its just that with steroids it actually worked. You think old ballplayers were were using chewing tobacco because they liked the taste of it? You think Willie Mays used speed for medical reasons?

The Brewers payroll is 27th and at 40 million dollars. It can only go up from here. From this point on as their payroll gets higher they get less money from revenue sharing which means it has to be offset by other forms of revenue. Things that won;t change no matter what are Radio and TV revenue. Which makes up a huge slice of the pie. So the trick will be to match the growth in that revenue with the rising cost of good players. So for instance if Weeks ends up costing 8 million dollars in 4 years not only do they have to increase their revenue by more then 8 million but also they have to replace the revenue sharing money they would recieve by having the lower payroll. So in the end after you factor in the lost revenue sharing and the cost of doing business you are looking at least an increase of 12 million dollars just to break even on an 8 million dollar salary. In all reality the Brewers in order to compete in a few years will have to at the very least double their payroll which means they will have to increase revenue by around 50 to 60 million dollars. I don't see them being able to do that.

I doubt that the Brewers will be much of a threat in 5 years, especially in the NL Central. There are just too many teams with too much resources ahead of them. A lot of things would have to change if the Brewers want to be able to hold on their players. The Brewers have some young players but they have a lot of players that are not going to be here soon. Which means either their minor league system is going to have to keep churning out good players or they are going to have to get good players via the trade or free agency. I don't see the Brewers being able to do that consistently over the next 5 years. If Weeks and Fielder pan out like they hope then they are going to get expensive real quick. They are going to either have to develop or pick up through trade and free agency the entire outfield within the next couple of years. That is going to be expensive and difficult. And of course they will always need pitching. Third base and catching will be needed and they need SS, 2B, and first base to pan out. A lot of ifs involved.

I can't see knocking the Cubs because of Grudz. Walker is/was the better player. John Rodriguez? How is that a strike against the front office? What about Joe Borowski? Or what about Neifi last year, or Todd Hollandswoth. For some reason John Rodriguez is a strike because he has done somewhat well in limited play. So well so have Cub transactions. Nor how is Albert Pujols a stike against the Cubs? How many rounds did it take for Albert to be drafted? Every single team passed him, and not just once but many times. Everybody passed up Mike Piazza too is that a strike against the Cubs? Eckstein? So Eckstein worked out. What about Rolen, what about Nunez, Taguchi, and Molina? He focuses for some reason on the offense as if the fundamentals and all that jazz is why they are winning. It isn't they are winning because of pitching. Eckstein and all his tenacity, Rodriguez with his mid season call up wouldn't amount to a hill of beans if the Cardinals had gotten Cub-like performance out of their pitching staff. All those injuries that he said the Cards don't whine about would have made this a tight division/wild card race if it wasn't for the pitching staff. Why doesn't he fault the Cubs on that one? Because you can't, thats why. You can't say that Hendry and the Cubs ahven't done a good job when you have Prior, Zambrano, Wood, and Maddux on your team. Especially when you compare to the names on the Cardinal team.

Oh and I think the Brewers are going to regress next year. Part of me thinks terribly and another part thinks only slightly below .500.

Well the Brewers that we know right now is a Selig team, the minor leagues is a Selig created system. Any if not all of the success the Brewers achieve in the next few years is going to be largely because of Bud Selig and what he did for the Brewers. I cannot give Selig good grades because as a Commish and as a Wisconsin taxpayer I can't stand him. But as the owner of the Brewers he hasn't done a bad job. He hasn't done a great job but with the limitations that is the Brewers market he has done alright. The Brewers even in the 90's could develop players their problem was that they could not afford them. The team was swimming in debt and I think no owner could have avoided that in the 90's with the exploding salaries. The only way he could have competed is if had a lot of his own money and he used it to finance a team. I cannot fault him for not doing that, its a poor business decision to do that.

No I want the league to say stuff it so that a business that has sizable resources can fight the legislation. Bullies are only defeated when you stand up to them and beat them. If you acquiesce then its gets worse not better. If MLB complies with Congress because they don't want legislation then it gets worse because then they strong arm even more so that those being strong arm conform even more into their worldview. Look at McCarthyism, everybody went along and it got worse. The Army did not back down and they broke McCarthy and the red scare. The Army had the resources to do it but unfortunately for us McCarthy did not start with the Army first. It crushed the smaller people first the ones who did not have the resources to fight and thus they were swallowed up and had their lives shattered. Fortunately for us Congress has started with the big 800 lb gorilla first, so if they stand up to the bully then it is possible that us little peons will not get crushed.

I would ove to see somebody with cojones say "stuff it" to Congress. Its a bluff by Congress but unfortunately baseball is owned by businessmen and they can't afford to tick off the Congress. This legislation is deadly and could have huge ramifications to everybody and their daily lives. Everybody should be against this, it opens the door to so many abuse of powers that it isn't even a joke anymore. its serious now. The government in effect is saying that if you do something we do not like we will not let you work in your chosen field. Regardless of what your employer or you decide about the severity of the event. That is a horrible precedent. This is another example of the citizens demanding results and not caring about the repercussions. Lynch Mobs, Internment Camps, and the Patriot Act are the end results of a society with its dander up but with no clear idea of how to achieve something. Because what they want to achieve does not exist, they merely want comfort in their mind about how the world exists.

The marlins are not really a great example nor is the top of their order against the Cubs at home. for isntance most of Juan Pierre's value against the Cubs at home came in again when the wind was hollowing out of Wrigley. He went 4/6, and Castillo's lone hit that day was a homer. In total 5 homers were hit that day. That first series agains the Cubs the wind was blowing out rather fierce. The second series saw Conine in the two hole and Pierre for all his speed it was unneccesary. First inning Pierre gets HBP steals second and Conine hits a double. The next time Pierre is up Nomar makes an error and Pierre is safe, he later scores. Third time he gets up he singles. Steals second and again a double knocks him home. Pierres scores not because of his speed but because of his teammates hitting doubles and the Cubs screwing up. The next game is probably the only clear cut of the little things being done to score. Pierre gets HBP, steals second, bunted over, and a sac fly brings him in. So the fundamentals have just scored the Marlins one run. But also fundamental Pierre grounded into a base loaded double play that ended an inning. So if he had simply been a "slugger: and hit the ball hard he would have gotten a sac fly and a run would score and there would still be one out left in the inning with two on. The Cubs struggles have nothing to do with speed or wrigley. The Cubs just don't have good hitters or hitters that can stay healthy long enough to make an impact. If Nomar, ARam, and Walker stay healthy nobody cares about Wrigley and the wind because the team would have a winning record.

Wait till next year! Huh, next year could be even worse then this year depending on what happens during the offseason. Going into this offseason the Cubs will have more holes and more questions then they did going into this year. 1B: will be sort of question, but not really a bad question. Meaning which DLee will show up? Is this a new level of production, (doubtful), will he go back to his normal production, or will fall somewhere in between? 2B: Hole/Question position. Todd Walker has shown that he is good when healthy but that is becoming increasingly rare. Nor is it for sure that he is coming back, nor would I say Hairston is an answer should they decide he is one. SS: Hole/Question. Does Nomar sign another one year contract? Does he stay healthy? If he isn't there then who? 3B: Question. Again this is another position in which it is becoming increasingly clear that the player manning this position cannot stay healthy C: No real problem here, this one they don't have to worry about too much. Though of course C is always a high risk position. LF: Best case scenario is that it is a question, worst case scenario a hole. Can Murton play everday and be decent? Will Baker let him? If he isn't allowed or cannot who plays their instead? CF: Hole/Question. Whether its Corey or Pie or somebody else this position is going to be at the very least a question and a serious risk. RF: Question/Hole. Nobody really waiting in the wings on the Cubs team for this spot so they are going to have to fill from the oustide. So in terms of position players the Cubs very likely only have three positions (C, 1B, 3B) that they are not going to have to go out and fill. But one of those positions (3B) has a serious question attached to it while the another is going to have a smaller impact on overall offense due to playing time. That leaves 5 positions that have very serious questions that need answering. Either during the offseason or they can only be answered with playing time. Murton might be the Cubs answer to LF but it will remain a serious question until he plays games. Same with CF. Not to mention that once again the Cubs will have to build a bench and hopefully most of the grizzled vets that filled it this year will not be back. The pitching staff again has serious questions. Starters: Kerry Wood, Greg Maddux, and a fifth starter. All three are serious questions. I think Zambrano and Prior are safe bets but the other three spots are serious questions to say the least. How will a Greg Maddux another year older perform? Can Kerry Wood pitch? Who is going to be the fifth starter? Relievers: These guys are always question marks for virtually every team so this isn't exactly a unique problem much like how most teams always have to build a bench every year. Anyway going into next season the Cubs really only have a handful of safe bets and are going to have 18-20 serious questions on their hands. Some of those problems they are going to have to hope for the best because the players are not going anywhere, so they can do very little to mitigate the potential damage. For instance the Cubs are not going to go out and sign A-Rod to answer their third base question. They are going to keep ARam and hope that a new instructor can keep him healthy througout the season.

As Branch Rickey said to Ralph Kiner, we finished last with you, we can finish last without you. If the point of that % measurement is to show where a team would be without a player then to me it has failed to show how important DLee is. Without DLee the cubs still don't make the playoffs or have a winning record. With Albert Pujols the Cards are a lot closer to the Astros and depending on where those lost 10 or so games are assigned to they might even be in second place. And as for Andruw Jones without his production they don't make the playoffs. So to me showing % doesn't refute the argument of where would this team be without him. If anything it reinforces the importance of the production of great players on good teams in contention. For starters it will be almost impossible for them to have a high %, only Barry Bonds has managed to pull that off, and that if they do have a significant chunk of the % it means they had a huge impact on their teams winning and losing.

He added the most simply because his teammates were bad. Which is just the flipside of giving the award to a player on a contending team. I don't think people are using the "who added the most to his team" as a way of not arguing for DLee but as a way to argue for DLee. Nobody is saying that Andruw helps his team win more games. I think most people argue that Andruw's production is simply more important. Not saying I agree with any of it but to use the "the who added the most to his team" is a strawman argument.

That just means that Lee has worse teammates then the other two players. Put Lee on the Cardinals and he is not 20% of the value of team. And by the way the 20% isn't just offensive but defensive as well.

I would look at the dailies before I give that much weight. Maddux tends to have one or two or several games in the spring in which he gets rocked. Now of course you can't ignore those games but it could simply be that Maddux gets roughed up in 4 or 5 games and then plays at the same level throughout the rest of the season. Maddux might very well not get stronger as the season go on simply he doesn't get blown out in the second half.

What I am saying is that the core is strong but that the arms and legs that were attached to it were not good enough. I get this feeling that after 2003 Hendry sor of figured that all he had to do was put the finishing touches on the team. 5th OF'er here, backup catcher there, 12th man in the pen, so on and so on. I get this feeling that for whatever reason he thinks this team just needs some polishing. I for one do not agree with that nor have I agreed with that since 2001. A team that has a core of talent that is as good as Barrett, Ramirez, Lee, Walker, Prior, and Wood should win more games. Unfortunately for us Hendry went the safe route and got mediocrity for the rest outside of a gamble on Nomar at SS. Its like the late 60's Cubs all over again. 4 HOF'ers (looking at you Ronnie) a decent player here and there and then a bunch of filler. This team should be getting 95+ wins a year but Hendry is stocking this team with a bunch of guys that drag the Cubs down to 80+ wins a year.

This is why players like Macias and Perez still have jobs. Because there are people in this world who look at their skills and performance and say good job, we need more of that.

Its one thing to finish above .500 when you have Augie Ojeda, Zuleta, Brown, Tapani, Morandini, and Trachsel. It's quite another thing to finish with 82 or 83 wins when you have Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Garciaparra, Ramirez, Lee, and Walker. This team might as well win 65 games anything less then the playoffs is meaningless for a team with this talent. If anything I would rather have them win 65 games instead of 83 that way at least Dusty would be gone and Hendry and Andy would realize that there is more work to be done, Not just switching out the bench or some such trivial thing like that.

Ah but you can't blame Hendry for Macias performance. Hendry had a plan how was he to know that Macias was going to be a putrid bench player? It's not his fault Macias stinks.

Comapre yes. Albert in 2002 was responsible for 35 win shares. Garth Iorg in 1978 was responsible for 18 win shares. But that does not mean we can transplan their number onto another team and say that Garth exact stats in 1978 would be worth 18 win shares to the Yankees in 1989. You can't pick out a lineup of all star seasons add up their win shares and say that this team based on win shares would win 175 games in a season. You can't slip out a 10 win share first basemen and replace him with a 40 win share first basemen and say that it would improve the team by 10 wins. That 40 win share performance might only be worth 32 win shares for his new team.

Heres the thing though. Win Shares is based on runs created but runs created is tied to actual runs. So if their is a discrepency then the runs created gets adjusted. So if the Cardinals have 900 runs created but only 850 actual runs then the runs created gets reduced by 50 runs and all players gets their RC reduced by the same %. So even if their is a difference it doesn't matter because it gets removed before win shares are assigned. But again though it seems to me that Studes is looking at it from the eye of a predictor. He is saying things like scoring more runs then predicted so on and so on. So to me he is saying that Pujols is getting more runs then predicted. That isn't a boost or an unfair advantage it simply means that the system is not a good model for accurately describing what is happening on the field. Win Shares is not a predictor it is simply a device that tries to capture the value of what happened on the field. Its not a true talent metric. Pujols is worth 35 win shares (or whatever it is) to the Cardinals. That does not mean he would be worth 35 win shares to the Cubs or 35 win shares to the 1996 Red Sox.