Warren Brusstar

I agree. Is that just a statement generally or are you making an argument of some sort regarding Santo and Allen? Yeah, Allen was a below average defensive 1B/OF, while Santo was an elite defensive 3B. Right. I get that. I agree. You posted that in response to my suggestion that Allen was a better player. Are you disputing that?

I agree. Is that just a statement generally or are you making an argument of some sort regarding Santo and Allen?

Why would we want a backup 3B when we can have Willie Mays Hayes on our team to serve solely as a pinch runner (even though he's not very good at it).

Ridiculous. Dick Allen should be in the Hall of Fame. FWIW, let's compare two players. Player A is a third baseman .277/.362/.464 with 342 career home runs Career OPS+ of 125, with his five best seasons at 164, 161, 153, 146, 139 Career EqA - .297, WARP3 - 72.7 Finished in the top 5 in MVP voting 2 times, but never higher than 4th 324 career win shares Player B was a third baseman, first baseman, and outfielder .292/.378/.534 with 351 career home runs Career OPS+ of 156, with his five best seasons at 199, 181, 175, 174, 165 Career EqA - .332, WARP3 - 70.0 Finished in the top 5 in MVP voting 2 times, winning it in 1972. 342 career win shares Player A is Ron Sano, who many contend sits with Bert Blyleven as the worst current omission from the Hall of Fame. Player B is Dick Allen, who was probably a better player than Ron Santo. BTW, he's also not in the Hall of Fame.

Particularly when Fontenot would shift back to second and the difference in offensive production would be Jake Fox v. Aaron Miles.

Meh. The games in April are just as important as the games in September. My guess is that St. Louis will ultimately be the Cubs biggest challenge in the Central, so strengthening our bullpen prior to a series against our most likely challenger isn't "really stupid."

If they didn't want to release Vizcaino at the end of spring training -- and decided to cut Gaudin instead -- what possibly could justify changing course on that decision at this point? I'm guessing they found a trade partner willing to take a small, small portion of Vizcaino's salary.

But who expected him not to, really? If we're going to waste time booing every sucky ex-Cub who sucked, we're gonna be really hoarse. Booing underachievers in one thing, but booing all the dregs that Hendry ever brought in is just stupid. I think booing in general is stupid, but saying it's okay to boo certain guys but not okay to boo glendon Rusch seems pretty stupid to me. People get booed when they tie up a considerable portion of payroll and a roster spot and aren't good. I get upset when my expectations aren't met, personally. When someone like Rusch comes into a game, I expect him to suck. I don't feel compelled to boo when someone sucks who every reasonable person would expect to suck. If they make too much money, my beef is with Hendry. Maybe I'm crazy. That's perfectly fine. But fans aren't obligated to accept somebody sucking just because they knew they would suck. If that were true, I never would have been allowed to voice displeasure with the work of Dusty Baker. Like I said, I'm not a booer. It does nothing for me. But it's perfectly understandable to boo a player who sucked while playing for your team, regardless of the negligence that brought him there. To me, there's a distinction between mental mistakes and physical mistakes. I don't think it's fair to boo Alex Gonzalez, for example, for biffing a critical double-play grounder. That's a physical error and they happen to everyone. I think it is absolutely fair to boo Mike Fontento, for example, for brainlessly getting thrown out at third base while trying to advance on a wild pitch in the bottom of the 9th when his run meant absolutely nothing. That's a mental error, and there's just no excuse for a major leaguer to make that sort of mistake. None.

I agree with the sentiment that booing is appropriate only for (a) mental mistakes; (b) being a jerk to the fans. Taking a called third strike with a man on third and one out? Worthy of boos. Serving up an 0-2 meatball that's jacked over the fence? Worthy of boos. Getting thrown out third on a stupid attempt to advance on a passed ball when down three runs in the ninth inning (i.e. Mike Fontenot last week)? Worthy of boos. I think very little of the booing that occurs at Wrigley corresponds to these sorts of things.

They even booed Harden when Bruce got the single to drive in the second run. :banghead: :flame: I remember when Theriot got booed after his first ML AB, which was a PH AB at that. If I recall correctly -- and it's certainly possible I do not -- he took a called third strike with a man on third and one out. That's worthy of booing.

Lou's dislike of Wuertz makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

CARDINALS (8-3) 2B Skip Schumaker CF Colby Rasmus 1B Albert Pujols RF Ryan Ludwick LF Chris Duncan C Yadier Molina 3B Joe Thurston SS Brian Barden P P.J. Walters CUBS (5-4) LF Alfonso Soriano CF Kosuke Fukudome 1B Derrek Lee RF Micah Hoffpauir 3B Aramis Ramirez C Geovany Soto 2B Mike Fontenot SS Ryan Theriot P Carlos Zambrano

I know there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the bullpen, but let's not jump off a bridge. FWIW, the 2008 bullpen had a composite ERA of 4.16 the 2009 bullpen currently has an ERA of 3.77

Take out Marmol and what is the ERA? 7.00? marmol's not on the team anymore????? How many innings do you think Marmol is going to throw?

He's proven at *every* opportunity that he can't hit as well as Aaron Miles. The first 600 PAs don't count because he was too young. The second 400 don't count because he didn't get regular enough playing time. It never counts, apparently, until he starts hitting (which he probably never will). It's the Matt Murton defense -- It only counts when Matt hits well. Notably, Matt's record since leaving the Cubs really shows how wrong Lou was about him.

I can't see how you possibly think that that entry is meant for anything except Monday. I mean, Aramis may end up pulled today, but that blog isn't reporting it. I'm not so sure. The list of posts on the right suggests it was added today at 10:30 am. Moreover, if that was Monday's post, why would he say "again"?

I know were all overreacting here, because thats what Cubs fans do. But his numbers from 06-08 as a reliever were pretty solid. I can't think of anyone besides Marmol who's numbers were that good over a three year average. I know we haven't seen that guy so far, but at some point we will. I'm just scared if he keeps struggling and blows a bunch of games it can ruin him and make him worthless for the rest of the year. If by "solid," you mean "not as good as Mike Wuertz," then yes.

Major league baseball teams are playing games right now is he is unemployed. I'd say he needs to get his career back on track.

Are you sure you really want to go that far out on a limb to make that bold prediction? That's a gutsy statement, my friend. Then why did you freak out about it in the first place?

ugh, the Shark is a pitcher Pecota just has no idea how to properly forecast. and i hope i don't have to explain the utter impossibility that Lou would have patience enough to give 150 innings to a guy with a 6 ERA Not only that, but I'm taking the over on several of those Brewer projections. Those are all reasonable suggestions. The point is that removing the Cubs best pitcher and replacing him with Mitch Atkins or Jeff Samardzija eradicates much, if not all, of the Cubs' advantage in the starting rotation. They'll still have the best team, but the notion that we're not "relying" on Harden is silly.

Or, maybe, PECOTA has him properly pegged as a 2008 fluke

Assume Harden goes down for a significant amount of time and we are forced to add Shark to the rotation. Name one team in the Central that will have a better rotation than the Cubs. Also, name one Central team with a better starting lineup than the Cubs. Go ahead. I'll be waiting patiently for your reply. Using PECOTA, if we give Harden's 155 innings to Shark, the Cubs starting rotation (Z, Lilly, Dempster, Shark, and Marshall) is projected to have a composite ERA of 4.76 over 845 innings, while the Brewers starting rotation (Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Parra, Looper) is projected to have composite ERA of 4.45 over 800 innings. So, according to PECOTA, the Brewers would have a better rotation. Clearly, there is no NL Central team with a better lineup than the Cubs, but that wasn't the argument. The fact is that inserting Shark instead of Harden gives back every bit of advantage the Cubs have in the rotation and, according to PECOTA, gives the Brewers the better rotation. I'll be waiting patiently for your patronizing reply. So the Brewers rotation would be PROJECTED to have a better ERA by 0.31. Excellent argument. I sit corrected. WE ARE DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please stop slaying strawmen. The only point in dispute is whether we relying on Harden that much. Based on the alternatives, Harden staying healthy is important to maintaining the best rotation in the division. Your post intentionally mischaracterizes by post by suggesting that I think we're "doomed." No one is arguing that. Nor are they arguing that we're somehow not the best team without Harden. The argument is just that a healthy Harden contributes significantly to our advantage over the rest of the division, and that our margin for error is smaller without him. Nothing more, nothing less. I find your post to be incredibly condescending. It is not particularly appeciated. I will wait patiently for your reply.

do you REALLY think the cardinals are anywhere near as good as the Cubs? Really??? I think the baseball season is a long & winding road. I think it's April. And I think the hubris about the Cubs is fun & cool, but given the two other factors above doesn't really mean anything. The Cubs are the best team in the NL Central. That doesn't mean they are guaranteed to perform the best. Nor does that mean that the team that may wind up outperforming them is better. People should be able to separate these ideas. Flukes can even happen even in 162 game seasons. Nobody saying that the Cubs are the best team in the division is denying that. The argument isn't that there's no way that the Cubs won't win the division in 2009. It's that the Cubs have far and away the best team in the NL Central in 2009. Right. But by replacing Rich Harden in the rotation with Jeff Samardzija, you can remove "far and away" from the last sentence of your post.

Assume Harden goes down for a significant amount of time and we are forced to add Shark to the rotation. Name one team in the Central that will have a better rotation than the Cubs. Also, name one Central team with a better starting lineup than the Cubs. Go ahead. I'll be waiting patiently for your reply. Using PECOTA, if we give Harden's 155 innings to Shark, the Cubs starting rotation (Z, Lilly, Dempster, Shark, and Marshall) is projected to have a composite ERA of 4.76 over 845 innings, while the Brewers starting rotation (Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, Parra, Looper) is projected to have composite ERA of 4.45 over 800 innings. So, according to PECOTA, the Brewers would have a better rotation. Clearly, there is no NL Central team with a better lineup than the Cubs, but that wasn't the argument. The fact is that inserting Shark instead of Harden gives back every bit of advantage the Cubs have in the rotation and, according to PECOTA, gives the Brewers the better rotation. I'll be waiting patiently for your patronizing reply.

Didn't we get enough this with Prior/Wood in '04 and '05? I'm not sure what this even means. So we shouldn't have an extremely high upside guy who is an injury risk in our rotation because we've had pitchers who have gotten hurt a lot before (a lot of teams have histories like this, as pitchers tend to get hurt a lot)? As you noted, we're not even relying on him that much. I disagree that we're "not relying on him that much." He's one of our five starters and without him we're counting on either Jeff Samardzija or Aaron Heilman or Kevin Hart or Mitch Atkins to hold down a rotation spot. The fact is that we have very, very little depth in our starting rotation and a significant stretch without Harden could be extremely challenging.