Warren Brusstar

I'm reluctantly starting to agree. Jacque is solid against RHP, no matter whether people want to admit it or not. 3-8 with 3 doubles in his last two starts. No reason to start Pie at this point. Well, he went 3/8 in his last 2 starts? That's it, you've convinced me - Jacques is great against RHP and should start in CF from now on. All the thought and analysis I put into this question over the first 5 pages didn't take into account his last 8 ABs...and clearly, that's all that matters. So you care about sample size all of a sudden? Are you really this dense? I've been looking at much more than the past 3 months and basing my argument on that. You're the one who says I'm putting all this emphasis on his last 200 PAs. I've said that 185 ABs isn't a great sample, but that past on his 3200 ABs against RHP, it's pretty clear that Jones can range from bad to great and it's not really close to the normal bell curve you'd expect with players improving through their peak and then coming back down. He's good one year, bad the next, great the next, etc. So if his performance year-year is random, you can't just look at his overall #s and expect he's going to match them, esp when he's been terrible for 3 months. Is he likely to improve some - yes, I've already said I don't think he'll have an OPS of .634 against RHP all year. But is it likely to jump 200 points to match his career #s? I don't think that's likely. And 3 doubles in 8 ABs isn't going to change my mind. It's a nice couple of games, but it doesn't mean much in predicting his performance for the next 3 months. 1. Thanks for the personal attack. 2. Are *you* really this dense? I've posted about a half dozen times in this thread that Jones has never once had a season with an OPS v. RHP of less than .775. Never. In 2007, there are 27 center-fielders that are currently on pace to qualify for the batting title. 11 have an OPS above .775, 16 have an OPS below .775. In 2006, of the qualifying center-fielders, 13 were above .775, 10 were below In 2005, 10 were above .775, 11 were below In Jacque Jones' very worst full season, he hit at a league-average level for center-fielders against RHP. He's never been bad in his career v. RHP. And repeating the same wrong argument over and over and over again doesn't make you right. 3. I keep insisting that you're placing too much emphasis on his first 200 plate appearances this year because there's absolutely no other reason to conclude that a guy who posted almost a .900 OPS v. RHP last year is somehow "unlikely" to match his career OPS of .825 against them, especially when he's only been under .800 twice.

I'm reluctantly starting to agree. Jacque is solid against RHP, no matter whether people want to admit it or not. 3-8 with 3 doubles in his last two starts. No reason to start Pie at this point. Well, he went 3/8 in his last 2 starts? That's it, you've convinced me - Jacques is great against RHP and should start in CF from now on. All the thought and analysis I put into this question over the first 5 pages didn't take into account his last 8 ABs...and clearly, that's all that matters. So you care about sample size all of a sudden?

In 3 of his seasons, JJ had OBP of .327, .310, and .294. I don't care where you play, that sucks. I'm not putting too much emphasis on his last 200 PAs, I'm putting some emphasis on the last 3 months and some emphasis on his roller coaster performance over his career. He's career stats look pretty good v. RHP, but he's had a couple really good seasons and a couple really bad ones. I just don't know what makes you so convinced this year is going to be a good one, given that it's started pretty darn badly. Maybe what scares me most is that JJ has frequently had below-average OBP, but made up for that to some degree with some pop. This year, he's horrible at getting on base and horrible at SLG. A .327 OBP is bad, but if a guy slugs .490 that year (against RHP) - you can deal. But he's not even slugging well this year. You can't pick and choose the parts of a player's performance record you don't like. I've already demonstrated that Jones has never before had an OPS v. RHP less than .775. Never. Not once. That does not suck for a CF. (And it's not even close to sucking) Rather than simply conceding a rather obvious point, you've decided to focus on OBP figures that Jones put up during past seasons. But I've already demonstrated that despite those relatively poor OBP numbers, he's neverthelss slugged enough to be an acceptable player (especially if his contemplated usage is as a CF). Focusing on Jones' OBP alone (and ignoring his adequate slugging in those years) is like saying that Derrek Lee's 6 home runs sucks. Again, he's never once had an OPS v. RHP lower than .775. To be sure, he's been brutal in 200 plate appearances this seasons. But based on those 200 plate appearances alone, you've concluded that it's unlikely that Jones will post a .734 OPS v. RHP in the second half, a number that is .041 points less than his previous WORST SEASON. By definition, that's placing way too much importance on his last 200 plate appearances.

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "abysmal" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is simply wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP. Jones is just broken at the plate right now. It's not as if he only had a .750 OPS against RHP in the first half, and is a good bet to turn it around. He's got a .635 OPS in nearly 200 PA's against them this year, and they're going in the wrong direction(OPS v. RHP by month: .662 in 79 April PA's, .630 in 65 May PA's, and .523 in 50 June PA's). Add in the fact that Pie is pretty capable against RHP too(.723 OPS despite his struggles, plus the minor league success previously posted) and a significantly better defender and baserunner, and it makes it an easier decision. What it boils down to is why gamble on Jones turning it around when you can make a similar(better?) gamble with Pie and enjoy the other benefits that choosing him provides(defense/baserunning, grooming future performance, having Soriano's buddy to thumb wrestle with, etc.)? Don't get me wrong - my preference is that they play Pie for those very reasons. I just think it's ridiculous to suggest that Jones is an abysmal option against RHP. (Also, all of BP's metrics rate Jones as an above average CF both this year and in his career) Also, I don't think it's a tremendous risk to assume that Jones will be significantly better against RHP in the second half. His extensive career track record likely ensures it. You're free to believe his 200 plate appearance sample is his new performance standard; I prefer to believe his 4000 career plate appearances are more telling. JJ could be significantly better against RHP in the 2nd half and still suck. A 100 point jump in OPS against RHP still makes it only .734. His career track record doesn't ensure anything. It shows that some years he's good against RHP, some years he's great, and some years he sucks. Unfortunately for us, this appears to be a suck year. He's never once had a season with an OPS v. RHP below .775 and he's been below .800 only twice. So, no. It's not accurate to say that in some years he "sucks." A .775 OPS v. RHP (his WORST season) from a CF does not suck. You're putting way too much emphasis on his last 200 plate appearances v. RHP. If allowed to play every day, I expect that he'll perform at or near his career standards (.825 OPS v. RHP) in the second half.

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "abysmal" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is simply wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP. Did you really just cut and paste this post? Or am I imagining things? Does that mean I have to go back and paste in my post about how unlikely it is that Jones is going to go from a .634 OPS against RHP to an .825 OPS against RHP overnight? That's just weird. Sample size. Why is it that you refuse to believe Pie's 2007 MLB performance is indicative of his true performance level or that Murton's 2007 MLB performance is indicative of his true performance level, but want us to disregard Jones' 4000 career plate appearances and instead look to his poor performance in his most recent 200?

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "abysmal" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is simply wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP. Jones is just broken at the plate right now. It's not as if he only had a .750 OPS against RHP in the first half, and is a good bet to turn it around. He's got a .635 OPS in nearly 200 PA's against them this year, and they're going in the wrong direction(OPS v. RHP by month: .662 in 79 April PA's, .630 in 65 May PA's, and .523 in 50 June PA's). Add in the fact that Pie is pretty capable against RHP too(.723 OPS despite his struggles, plus the minor league success previously posted) and a significantly better defender and baserunner, and it makes it an easier decision. What it boils down to is why gamble on Jones turning it around when you can make a similar(better?) gamble with Pie and enjoy the other benefits that choosing him provides(defense/baserunning, grooming future performance, having Soriano's buddy to thumb wrestle with, etc.)? Don't get me wrong - my preference is that they play Pie for those very reasons. I just think it's ridiculous to suggest that Jones is an abysmal option against RHP. (Also, all of BP's metrics rate Jones as an above average CF both this year and in his career) Also, I don't think it's a tremendous risk to assume that Jones will be significantly better against RHP in the second half. His extensive career track record likely ensures it. You're free to believe his 200 plate appearance sample is his new performance standard; I prefer to believe his 4000 career plate appearances are more telling.

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "abysmal" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is simply wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP.

The same Barrett had 5 guys steal out of 5 attempts the day before with Chris Young on the mound. One of those steals was Russell Martin stealing 3rd. Barrett was never good at blocking balls, but he's been absolutely brutal this year in regards to passed balls. And 3 guys did still bases successfully against Barrett last night, including Luis Gonzalez. So basically, he nailed 1 out of 9 in the last 2 games. Opposing baserunners are 26 for 26 stealing against Chris Young this year. It's disingenous to suggest that Barrett is at fault for the three steals the other night.

Wow you can use past performance to get Jacque Jones in the lineup but past performance wasnt good enough for Matt Murton. I actually agree with you to a point. It is that since Jones will not be traded unless the Cubs eat a good portion of the salary, I think it would be a worthwhile gamble to start playing him against RHers. He will be a better hitter than Pagan. If he produces than I would trade him the minute you can not have to pay over half of his remaining salary. If he doesnt than just bite the bullet and either DFA him or trade him for whatever meaningless prospect you can get. Also it is one thing to say that Jones had a higher OPS than all those players currently have. You didnt figure in defense in one of the 3 most important defensive positions. 1. By both Fielding Runs above Replacement and Rate, Jones is an above average defensive center-fielder, both this year and over the course of his career. 2. Where did I ever say that past performance should be ignored as to Murton? I've said no such thing. In any event, even if we assume that Jones and Murton are equally like to post an .850 OPS v. RHP (and past performace says that Jones is a better hitter v. RHP than Murton is), there's a substantial difference between a CF that posts an .850 OPS and a corner outfielder that posts an .850 OPS. (And my original post acknowledges that --- Jones is a credible option in CF, but should not be considered in a corner) 3. That's not to say that signing Jones or Floyd was a good idea in the first place.

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon. Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "known quantity of suck" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is both disingenuous and wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP.

Pagan is 8 for his last 38 with only one extra base hit. He's been bad for a few weeks.

Please get'r'done tonight, Dr. Smoke and Mirrors.

Give me an effing break. His ERA+ is 126

Chi Cubs A. Soriano lf R. Theriot ss D. Lee 1b A. Ramirez 3b M. DeRosa rf A. Pagan cf M. Fontenot 2b R. Bowen c R. Hill p Washington N. Logan cf R. Belliard 2b R. Zimmerman 3b D. Young 1b A. Kearns rf F. Lopez ss R. Fick lf J. Flores c M. Chico p

honestly, are cedeno's supposed bunting/baserunning deficiencies really that important? cedeno's a better defender, and i would think that would more than make up for any bunting/running differences. and if you'll remember the early part of this season, theriot was a butcher in the OF...plus, a shortage of guys who can play the OF is the least of the cubs' concerns. I agree of's aren't necessary but the defense argument won't get you far, Theriot can play close to gold glove D and proved it today. LOL

Not me. The Cubs should be about -300 tomorrow night. Maybe more. I'm not worried at all. Z is cruising and the Nationals aren't going to change that. I'm worried about Hill and Marshall rebounding from the shellings they took against the Brewers. I'm not worried about tomorrow.

Until I had kids, I could say likewise.

I think that's ridiculous. If we take two of three, we win the series. They don't give style point.

Izturis, Jones, and Eyre to PHL for Burrell. Gillick gives us the difference in Burrell's salary for next year so that the $$ washes. A very productive player for three extremely crappy ones? Why not suggest ARod if we're going to ignore reality?

Correlation does not equal causation

You're joking, right?

If you believe the All-Star game is intended to reward players who have performed the best over an 80 game sample (this is the kind of thinking that leads to Cesar Izturis being named an All-Star), then of course Zambrano doesn't belong. On the other hand, if you believe that the all-star selection process should be based in part on the first 80 games and in part on career performance, one could make a very good case that Zambrano should be on the team.

I'd call him up and either DFA Izturis or demote Theriot. I suspect that this is simply a small-sample size fluke. But Cedeno can't possibly perform worse than the Izturis or Theriot. So there's no downside.

Absolutely. If we're paying his salary, why not?

I didn't take issue with it. I assumed they were hot, considering the last I heard of them was the Yankees series. But I just noticed this morning they've lost 3 straight, which means they are no longer hot. They aren't the lowly Rockies some people remember, but they aren't some juggernaut shredding everybody either. Over their last 30 games, Colorado is playing .667 baseball, which projects to 108 wins over an entire season. I'm comfortable categorizing that as "hot." But if you want to continue to argue, go right ahead.