Will Carroll
-
Posts
24 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Will Carroll
-
Last question and thanks for all the substantive questions. We'll have to do this again sometime. My "Pitch Counts Don't Matter" article was a bit of a stretch. It was an article more intended to question the pitch count orthodoxy than to attack PAP, which is how many interpreted it. As I said, pitch counts need context. As I've worked on V-Loss and worked with geniuses like Rany and Keith Woolner, I realize just how good the system is and how well tested. In short, I wasn't wrong in what I wrote, but I've learned more since then. If I ever get to the point where I'm not willing to learn, please stop reading me and send me on my way. Thanks again and go buy my book!
-
Hmmm ... no one in the Cubs front office reads this, do they? :) Average. They're conscious of it, which is more than some teams, and the nature of their staff forces them to be aware. I'd like to see them lay off the horses some, but it's tough to pull someone so good and keep the focus on the long term. Maybe Dusty and Larry could get contracts for life ... with the condition that it is voided if a pitcher gets an arm injury.
-
Valid analogy. I may steal that :) We're still learning where the point is that damage is occurring. We know it works geometrically or even exponentially, but we're not sure the exact point. Worse, it's individual so some might be damaged by working to averages. Again, it's the pitching coach's responsibility to know and properly use his pitchers.
-
Wow. I have my Ryne Sandberg rookie cards - and meeting him last year was such a thrill - so I'll say a Ron Santo rookie card. I really admire Santo more for what he's done off the field than on.
-
There's an increased risk of problems as pitchers come back from TJ, but its because they're adjusting their mechanics, often to protect their elbow. Its natural and has to be guarded against. Kris Benson really struggled with this. It's just another part of the rehab process. I haven't seen many cases where shoulder surgery put more strain on the elbow, due to the mechanics of the kinetic chain, probably.
-
We're working on V-Loss and it's detailed more in STP. I think we'll get a system that works in concert with PAP, but the "holy grail" will be a system that allows assessment of mechanics in-game. That's probably years away, so we'll work on proxies in the meantime. PAP, for now, is the gold standard with pitching coaches needing to take more responsibility. Why isn't a coach judged on health as much as he is performance?
-
Who says injuries can't be predicted? I did pretty well with my Team Health Reports and the system is getting worked on constantly. We're only a couple years away from an injury system nearly as accurate as performance predictions. I think all young pitchers are at risk. I'm most worried about Andy Sisco. He's still learning how to pitch with his long frame and that amplifies mechanical problems. It took Big Unit years to learn his kinesthetics.
-
Very familiar. I think the proactive approach and holistic methodology is of value to any staff. It just takes an organizational commitment. I'll save my wrists here and recommend that you check out Saving The Pitcher or any number of places that have detailed Oakland's program.
-
Recovery is HUGE. It's something I mentioned earlier, but as Jack White says, "it bears repeating now." A pitcher starts at a theoretical 100%. He throws to "failure" - where he can't pitch any more effectively - and let's say he's at 25%. He has X days - today, usually 3 or 4 - to get back to as near 100% as possible. If he doesn't, he has less to work with before failure. Fatigue is cumulative and as we saw with Wood at the end of the season, he was out of gas quickly. Rany Jazayerli has done great work on proving why the four man could work. I'd seriously recommend everyone head over. He has a BP article (free) with links to his research.
-
Nothing. This is assuming he's efficient with his pitches, his mechanics and velocity remain sound at all times, and that he's given sufficient rest. So far, Wood isn't approaching Maddux's or even Halladay's pitch efficiency. Strike out pitchers use more pitches, plain and simple.
-
The Cubs won't commit to a date but if I had to guess, I'd say around the first Houston series. He did well in his first simulated game, has another on Wednesday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a rehab start next week. Full strength? Absolutely. He's actually added velocity.
-
Oakland immediately comes to mind. Their work on prehab has given them a big advantage. In the past two seasons, they've had ONE minor pitching arm injury. Toronto is close behind, with a similar system. The Rockies have been good at monitoring their staff. Tampa does a surprisingly good job. Mostly, these teams decided to keep their pitchers healthy and committed resources to it. They have an organizational mandate to follow the program, from majors to rookie ball. Not many teams can do that on any issue.
-
Yes, labrum tears are usually the effect rather than the cause. Strengthening the muscles and tightening the shouler are two big parts of the rehab. Guzman's tear was very small and he's made what seems to be a good recovery. I don't think they'll rush him, given their current pitching and contender status. I think the Cubs look at him as Clement insurance.
-
My April Fool's article aside, there's tons of advances in labrum surgery. Opus Medical is a firm doing a lot of really interesting work on labrums. Jim Andrews and ASMI hold a conference each year where they discuss the state of the art and this year, I was lucky enough to attend. Labrums are getting a LOT of research and I think we're getting closer to learning how to fix them. Tommy John didn't become routine overnight - it took 15 years of work.
-
Yes and no. The technology exists, but no team I know of is going to let us stick some needles in their pitcher in between innings. We're learning a ton in the high-speed video chambers about kinetic forces on the arm and there's more to be found there. One of the more exciting studies I know about is ultrasound imaging of the elbow. It could concievably be done in between innings, but that seems like overkill. Having quick easy ways to determine injuries or just monitor health is very important. I'm sure you'll enjoy both books. Mark's book is killing me, but I'm having less lower back pain after just a couple weeks.
-
Chance? Sure. As a reliever, he's not asked to overstress the arm, but he'll have to fix his mechanics or he'll be right back on the table. Guys like Chiasson are very replaceable - sounds cold, but it's part of baseball, so he'll need to be effective quickly to get another shot.
-
First, I feel that he's taken way too much abuse for one bad decision. He's far from the only pitcher I've ever seen throw at someone for timing him. I'm not saying he's right, but that he's not the monster the media makes him out to be. I think Christianson has a big challenge. The best upside comparable would be Gil Meche, who was able to fight through a couple surgeries to become a big league pitcher. This year is huge for Ben considering how stacked the minors are with good, as-yet uninjured prospects like Blassko, Nolasco, and so on.
-
That's a better question for Tom House than me. Research shows that its important to rest. Jim Andrews says that any pitcher under eighteen should take at least two months out of the year off with NO THROWING. That's extreme, but understandable. I like drills like Tom's towel drill and knees drills that take stress off the arm while still throwing and working on mechanics. Short answer: watch what Prior does and do that!
-
Carlos - and Kerry and Mark - were clearly fatigued at the end of the season. All those pitches they threw caught up with them at the worst time. One of the least understood elements of pitching is recovery time. Rany discussed it in passing in his article about the Rockies today on BP, but it's probably the next great frontier. Prior has a big advantage in recovery time and with more and more research, that could be an advantage we see moving around.
-
Yeah, thanks for the loaded question! :) Do ANY pitchers use steroids? The numbers indicate that some probably do. There were 87 positive tests and recent developments might give us the names of those, despite the explicit privacy agreements. It's an important case beyond the baseball implications. Steroids for a pitcher wouldn't so much help velocity as it would recovery time, done properly. I'd guess that the number of pitchers is very low, on the order of 1 or 2 %, but that's just a WAG.
-
Some people can't be saved. Science shows us that there's a breaking point. Sure, there are freaks and its hard to see cause and effect when there might be years between them. I'd show him my book - I think I make a pretty good case in there. Most people see the dollars lost to the DL and freak out pretty good.
-
Tough question. I worry more about the guys in the minors than I do Zambrano or Prior. Nate Silver and I did some research and the injury nexus is actually lower than previously thought, but also more predictive.
-
Pitch counts are important, but putting them in context gives them meaning. As you say, each pitcher is different and pitch count alone doesn't tell us much. Was it hot? Was this the second or third high-stress outing? Was his mechanics holding up? Was he pitching more breaking stuff? PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) does the best job at giving context independent of being in the dugout, but pitchers still must rely on their coaches and themselves to monitor their workload individually. I think the word "abuse" is a bit loaded. It's not like child abuse where it's all bad. There's a fine line a team must walk between protecting their pitcher and getting maximum effective usage.
-
First, thanks for inviting me in Tim. I'll try to get as many questions in as I can. I hope everyone reads UTK and the rest of the great content at BP. I also hope everyone enjoys Saving The Pitcher. It was really a great process and one I hope will live up to the title. Dr. Andrews set up ASMI to "put himself out of business" as he says. He believes his legacy will be preventing injuries through research and education. With ASMI and other places like the National Pitching Association, we're working to get the scientific information out to all pitchers. As far as what doctors do day to day in prevention, it depends on the doctors and the team. Most do what they can, but they don't have much say in on-field decisions and end up as reactive rather than pro-active. Few teams take a truly holistic approach.