Will Carroll

Last question and thanks for all the substantive questions. We'll have to do this again sometime. My "Pitch Counts Don't Matter" article was a bit of a stretch. It was an article more intended to question the pitch count orthodoxy than to attack PAP, which is how many interpreted it. As I said, pitch counts need context. As I've worked on V-Loss and worked with geniuses like Rany and Keith Woolner, I realize just how good the system is and how well tested. In short, I wasn't wrong in what I wrote, but I've learned more since then. If I ever get to the point where I'm not willing to learn, please stop reading me and send me on my way. Thanks again and go buy my book!

Hmmm ... no one in the Cubs front office reads this, do they? :) Average. They're conscious of it, which is more than some teams, and the nature of their staff forces them to be aware. I'd like to see them lay off the horses some, but it's tough to pull someone so good and keep the focus on the long term. Maybe Dusty and Larry could get contracts for life ... with the condition that it is voided if a pitcher gets an arm injury.

Valid analogy. I may steal that :) We're still learning where the point is that damage is occurring. We know it works geometrically or even exponentially, but we're not sure the exact point. Worse, it's individual so some might be damaged by working to averages. Again, it's the pitching coach's responsibility to know and properly use his pitchers.

Wow. I have my Ryne Sandberg rookie cards - and meeting him last year was such a thrill - so I'll say a Ron Santo rookie card. I really admire Santo more for what he's done off the field than on.

There's an increased risk of problems as pitchers come back from TJ, but its because they're adjusting their mechanics, often to protect their elbow. Its natural and has to be guarded against. Kris Benson really struggled with this. It's just another part of the rehab process. I haven't seen many cases where shoulder surgery put more strain on the elbow, due to the mechanics of the kinetic chain, probably.

We're working on V-Loss and it's detailed more in STP. I think we'll get a system that works in concert with PAP, but the "holy grail" will be a system that allows assessment of mechanics in-game. That's probably years away, so we'll work on proxies in the meantime. PAP, for now, is the gold standard with pitching coaches needing to take more responsibility. Why isn't a coach judged on health as much as he is performance?

Who says injuries can't be predicted? I did pretty well with my Team Health Reports and the system is getting worked on constantly. We're only a couple years away from an injury system nearly as accurate as performance predictions. I think all young pitchers are at risk. I'm most worried about Andy Sisco. He's still learning how to pitch with his long frame and that amplifies mechanical problems. It took Big Unit years to learn his kinesthetics.

Very familiar. I think the proactive approach and holistic methodology is of value to any staff. It just takes an organizational commitment. I'll save my wrists here and recommend that you check out Saving The Pitcher or any number of places that have detailed Oakland's program.

Recovery is HUGE. It's something I mentioned earlier, but as Jack White says, "it bears repeating now." A pitcher starts at a theoretical 100%. He throws to "failure" - where he can't pitch any more effectively - and let's say he's at 25%. He has X days - today, usually 3 or 4 - to get back to as near 100% as possible. If he doesn't, he has less to work with before failure. Fatigue is cumulative and as we saw with Wood at the end of the season, he was out of gas quickly. Rany Jazayerli has done great work on proving why the four man could work. I'd seriously recommend everyone head over. He has a BP article (free) with links to his research.

Nothing. This is assuming he's efficient with his pitches, his mechanics and velocity remain sound at all times, and that he's given sufficient rest. So far, Wood isn't approaching Maddux's or even Halladay's pitch efficiency. Strike out pitchers use more pitches, plain and simple.

The Cubs won't commit to a date but if I had to guess, I'd say around the first Houston series. He did well in his first simulated game, has another on Wednesday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a rehab start next week. Full strength? Absolutely. He's actually added velocity.

Oakland immediately comes to mind. Their work on prehab has given them a big advantage. In the past two seasons, they've had ONE minor pitching arm injury. Toronto is close behind, with a similar system. The Rockies have been good at monitoring their staff. Tampa does a surprisingly good job. Mostly, these teams decided to keep their pitchers healthy and committed resources to it. They have an organizational mandate to follow the program, from majors to rookie ball. Not many teams can do that on any issue.

Yes, labrum tears are usually the effect rather than the cause. Strengthening the muscles and tightening the shouler are two big parts of the rehab. Guzman's tear was very small and he's made what seems to be a good recovery. I don't think they'll rush him, given their current pitching and contender status. I think the Cubs look at him as Clement insurance.

My April Fool's article aside, there's tons of advances in labrum surgery. Opus Medical is a firm doing a lot of really interesting work on labrums. Jim Andrews and ASMI hold a conference each year where they discuss the state of the art and this year, I was lucky enough to attend. Labrums are getting a LOT of research and I think we're getting closer to learning how to fix them. Tommy John didn't become routine overnight - it took 15 years of work.

Yes and no. The technology exists, but no team I know of is going to let us stick some needles in their pitcher in between innings. We're learning a ton in the high-speed video chambers about kinetic forces on the arm and there's more to be found there. One of the more exciting studies I know about is ultrasound imaging of the elbow. It could concievably be done in between innings, but that seems like overkill. Having quick easy ways to determine injuries or just monitor health is very important. I'm sure you'll enjoy both books. Mark's book is killing me, but I'm having less lower back pain after just a couple weeks.