Whether Gerut will "break out" or not remains to be seen, but he figures to get better as he puts his torn ACL behind him. Even though the mean "breakout" age may be 27, there isn't anything magic about that age... it just happens to be the peak in the distribution. Gerut hasn't been in the league that long, so he might be expected to peak at a later age anyway, even without suffering the torn ACL. Gerut's OBP numbers his first two seasons pretty solid, considering that the vast majority of players don't step right into the majors and start posting .350+ OBP, even if that is their eventual destiny. Also, if we are going to be statheads about it, it should be noted that Gerut had an unusually low BA on balls in play last year, so his low BA (and OBP) in 2004 was probably something of a fluke compared to his true skill level. Basically, this is a trade of one spare part for another. Dubois is only a year younger than Gerut and is basically one-dimensional... he is a poor defensive player and, contrary to what some people seem to think of him, he has never been that patient of a hitter in the minors. His isolated power will always be good, but he will need to hit for a high average to post a decent OBP and he seems to have too much trouble making contact to do that in the majors consistently. He can probably stick as a part-time 1B/DH, but the Cubs don't need one of those. Gerut makes a good 4th outfielder both now and in the future, and if he can get back on the development track he was on before the injury, he could be a potential starter at one of the corner outfield positions. I know it is easy to become attached to guys who come up from the farm system (I do it myself), but Dubois has never been one of the top prospects. Gerut likely will never be a star, but he figures to be much more valuable to the Cubs than Dubois would have been.