This is a fun thought experiment and you bring some fair points. PCA's HR in Miami today inspired me to perform some analyses. I saw a few different headlines declare his round trip lasted ~14s. I made several timings from video - all hovered around 13.15s. I suspect MLB Statcast starts the clock at contact while I tried to capture his transition from hitting to running. Very subjective and unscientific, but I'll reiterate my timings were within a .14s range. That's still well above 100m times for elite sprinters. But...
Let's review all the differences between the 100m sprint and running the bases.
- Straight line vs (almost) square. Obviously, acceleration benefits from the straight path. Not only do baseball players turn every 90 feet, they're also running along an arc vs straight line. The arc softens the angle made at each base while lengthening the distance. I think the MLB running lane allows for ~3ft right of the baseline. If the arc peaked at 3' from center, 90' becomes 99'. However, a player sprinting for extra bases tends to exceed that 3' mark. (advantage: sprinter)
- The start is a whole different ballgame (I see your pun and raise my own!) There's no starting block at home plate. In fact, the batter isn't even facing their running path. Well, righties are kinda facing the path until they swing the bat. Lefties are closer to first, but are facing the wrong direction throughout their at-bat. Either way, batters are running from a standing position and must dispatch the bat in their hand. (advantage: sprinter)
- Unless it's a little league HR, a player racing around the bases is likely to slide into home. I've heard arguments about slides being slower than running, but PCA's headfirst dive to the plate didn't appear slower in any way. Given the way sprinters lean across the finish line, I suspect they'd consider diving if the track was more forgiving. (advantage: ball player)
I glossed over it earlier, but that arc is pretty important. I noted a 3' arc could turn the 90' distance into 99'. That's nearly 400' in-total...almost 122m! If PCA ran 122m in 13.15s, that's equivalent to 10.77s in the 100m...an unfair comparison since his longer distance would also include more deceleration due to exertion. By the way, I'd argue PCA's path around the bases exceeded that 3' arc. He likely ran more than 400'. How much more? I dunno - ask Statcast. Given the distance, angles, and starting position disadvantages, I feel confident suggesting PCA's equivalent (100m) sprint time was under 10.7s today.
In full transparency, I initially considered using a round trip distance of 390' instead of 400'. Why? It stands to reason a batter's path to first would be significantly straighter than the next 3 bases. But that's not true for PCA - because he was already thinking about extra bases from the start. As a result, he adjusted his path to first, hence the 400' distance (or more). You can see this in the Marlins' broadcast video.
Despite his arcing path, PCA's race to first may be the best comparison to make with a sprinter. It's not 100m, but there's no angle to slow his acceleration. And if you believe his arced path measured ~99', that's just over 30m. The Marlins footage gives the clearest view of PCA running from the batter's box to first...in about 3.8s (again, from my timings). You can find interval splits for sprinters too. In 2008, Usain Bolt's splits through 30m was ~3.78 (https://speedendurance.com/2008/08/22/usain-bolt-100m-10-meter-splits-and-speed-endurance/). Again, I'm not suggesting PCA is on-par with those sprinters, but during the most comparable portion of his run, his numbers look pretty competitive.
