Jamie Cameron

Day 1 of the 2023 MLB Draft is upon us. I’m excited to share the final version of the Consensus Draft Board. You can access the Consensus Draft Board directly by clicking the link in the main article. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp Day 1 of the 2023 MLB Draft is upon us. I’m excited to share the final version of the Consensus Draft Board. You can access the Consensus Draft Board directly by clicking the link in the main article. TD.BF.NSBB 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V3 Final In the google sheet, you’ll find players ranked 1 through 311. For each prospect, you’ll find basic information; position, age, rank, school, height, weight, B/T and space where I’ll add where they were selected. In the final ‘writeup’ column, you’ll find notes on each of the first 100 or so prospects highlighting tools, strengths, opportunities, and recent performance. In the top 50 of the Consensus Board, you’ll find the following color coding (there was too much variance beyond the top 50 to make continuing to track movements up and down worthwhile): Light green - player moved up 5-9 spots since last Consensus Board Dark green - player moved up 10+ spots since last Consensus Board Light red - player moved down 5-9 spots since last Consensus Board Dark red - player moved down 10+ spots since last Consensus Board Following the draft, I’ll do some postmortem on how useful this tool was compared to other boards. For now, I hope people find it a useful resource to find notes and valuable insights into players drafted, starting Sunday. Lastly, I’ll say that if you appreciate this resource, I’d be really grateful if people share it, link it, tweet it out etc. This is Year 2 of this project and after a promising 2022 version, the 2023 version started in February. It started as a top 30 in winter, and has grown to what I believe to be the first Consensus Board for the MLB Draft. It’s the sum of months of work and over 30,000 words, so anything folks can do to share it is greatly appreciated. Happy Draft weekend, y’all. View full article

We are a little over a week away from Day 1 of the 2023 MLB Draft. Who are the current top 50 players on JD Cameron’s Consensus Board? Let’s dig in. We’re finally in the home stretch and the MLB Draft is only a handful of days. In the coming week, I’ll release the final Consensus Board. The timing is tricky, as there are plenty of outlets who haven’t released their final pre-draft rankings just yet. So, here’s a taster of what’s to come. Here’s the current state of the top 50 consensus prospects, split into 26-50, and 1-25. It’s likely that prospect’s positions in the final rankings will be slightly different, as final inputs for the Consensus Board are updated. If you enjoy these rankings, be sure to look out for my final board, where you’ll find over 200 players ranked with over 100 written up. 25. Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami A big, physical third baseman with a power hitting profile, Yohandy Morales was a top 100 prospect coming out of high school but elected to play at Miami. In his last two seasons with the Hurricanes, he's put up nearly identical numbers, managing a .408/.475/.713 line through 61 games in 2023. Morales has easy raw power (38 HR between 2022-2023) and puts up consistently massive exit velocities (his 90th percentile exit velocity was north of 108 mph in 2023). That type of power comes with a good amount of swing and miss, a tendency which will govern his floor as a prospect. In 2023, Morales saw his K% (23%) and BB% (~12.5%) stay close to his 2022 numbers through the end of the season. A good defender at third with a strong arm, Morales will do a ton of damage at the plate and is likely a first round selection. 24. Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, PA McGonigle's calling card is his hit tool, it's one of the best in the class. He features an efficient, short swing, and lightning quick hands that have allowed him to hit consistently well against good competition throughout his amateur career to date. There are questions about how much power McGonigle may develop, but his swing currently offers line drive power to all fields. Defensively, while he's currently a shortstop, a lack of quickness and an average arm may move him to second base. Make no mistake, the bat and hit tool are the headlines here, and they're high quality enough for a team to find him a home on the infield somewhere. 23. Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest Wilken has been on the draft radar for some time as a third base masher who cranked 40 home runs in his first two seasons at Wake. In 2023, everything has taken a step forward at the plate. Through 66 games, he hit 31 home runs and a triple slash of .345/.506/.807, all significant improvements from a year ago. Through the end of the CWS he cut his K% from 28% to 24% and increased his BB% from 13% to 29%. These improvements speak to a better approach at the plate and a hit tool that can develop to at least average. He may need to find a more aggressive approach at the plate as a pro as his passivity has allowed better pitchers to get to their best secondary offerings against him. Defensively Wilken has good hands and a plus arm. His lateral movement and slow foot speed may necessitate a move to first base eventually. Wilken has been moving up draft boards steadily this season and has 30 home run potential at the next level. 22. Chase Davis, OF, Arizona Davis is an athletic outfielder who was a Top 100 rated prospect on most boards in 2020 before the Draft was shortened to five rounds and he ended up honoring his commitment to Arizona. Davis has a ton of great tools. He has plus power to all fields which he's taken to the next level in games this season. In 2023, he put up a year for the ages .362/.489/.742 with 21 home runs and a left handed swing reminiscent of Carlos Gonzalez, ripping consistently huge exit velocities. Critically, he's cut down on his chase rate and swing and miss dramatically and has a good argument for the most improved player in college baseball. Defensively, he's athletic with a bazooka arm in the outfield. I think Davis is a Top 10 player. He's been zooming up boards, but is still ranked consistently too low in my opinion. 21. Braden Taylor, 3B, TCU Taylor has some of the best strike zone control in the '23 class. I'd expect him to eventually be picked in the 10-20 range. In his first two years at TCU his production was incredibly consistent, before exhibiting more unevenness in 2023. Taylor has a great eye (21 BB% in 2023), rarely expanding the strike zone and line drive power all over the field, including home run power to the pull side (23 through 67 games in 2023) underpinned by a beautiful left-handed swing. Taylor is a good defender at the hot corner and should stick at third base long term. His ceiling is hurt by poorer results against elite velocity and a lack of upper echelon exit velocities although his strong end to the season and other strong underlying analytical markers will appeal to model heavy teams. 20. Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon Jacob Wilson is the son of former All-Star MLB SS Jack Wilson. His calling card is his strike zone control and plate discipline. At the time of writing, Wilson carried just a 2.7 K% through his 22-23 seasons at Grand Canyon. He *literally* doesn't strike out. Wilson has improved his offensive production every season in college, building to a .411/.461/.635 through 49 games in 2023. Wilson doesn't have much in the way of power but may develop pull-side pop as he continues to develop and refine his approach at the plate. A solid defender, Wilson probably doesn't have the lateral quickness to stick at shortstop, but would be a solid option at either second or third base. Wilson has an incredibly advanced approach and high floor, he should move quickly through the minors when he turns pro although a lack of power may limit his offensive ceiling. 19. Bryce Eldridge, RHP/1B, Madison HS, VA Eldridge is one of the most projectable prospects in the '23 class, and a legitimate two-way player. In the pre-draft process, he’s been adamant about hitting and pitching at the next level as a pro. He features a fastball that has touched 96 mph, a sharp breaking slider that sits in the low 80s, and a developmental changeup, and curveball. Eldridge is incredibly athletic and has a motion with good repeatability so more velocity and more effective pitch shapes are likely to come with time and development. As a hitter he has massive raw power, some of the best in the prep class. His hit tool is a little fringy currently with plenty of swing and miss, and its development will govern his upside as a hitter. He has a strong arm and good hands, usually playing at first base, but right field would be an option too. Eldridge is committed to Alabama. 18. Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS, GA Houck is a multiple sport athlete with scholarship offers to play quarterback at the Power 5 level, which he turned down to commit to Mississippi State. Hailing from the same high school as Matt Olson, Houck already has several well rounded tools. He has a simple, efficient swing and has gotten into his raw power somewhat, particularly on the pull side. His approach at the plate does feature some swing and miss, something likely to improve with time and experience. At worst defensively, Houck will be a good defensive third baseman although he has a chance to stick at shortstop. Houck is well rounded for a prep prospect and an outstanding athlete. He'll likely hear his name called in the first 25 picks in July. 17. Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS, FL Miller is a big, projectable third baseman and one of the most athletic and explosive prep bats in the '23 class. Already boasting 60 grade raw power, Miller has a solid approach at the plate coupled with electric bat speed, albeit in noisy plate operation. Miller has an above average hit tool to go with his mashing ability, and plays good defense at the hot corner to go with a plus arm. Whether he sticks at third or moves to first base, Miller's offensive profile will likely play anywhere. Miller is committed to Arkansas, but a mid-first round selection will likely put him on the path to a career as a prototypical slugging third baseman. But for injury limiting his playing time in 2023, Miller would likely be pushing for top ten consideration. 16. Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton HS, TX Mitchell has been a two way player through high school but likely will find himself behind the dish long term. Behind the plate he has a solid hit tool and excellent raw power to all fields. He has a patient approach at the plate that, coupled with his excellent athleticism should lead to good power and on-base numbers. The one hole in Mitchell's offensive game currently is his swing carries a good amount of swing and miss, his contact skills could stand to improve. Defensively, Mitchell is strong behind the plate, showing good pop times, lateral quickness that will lead to strong blocking abilities, and has a bazooka of a right arm to help control the running game (his fastball has been clocked at 97mph). Mitchell could move to a corner outfield spot and his offensive profile would carry him, but he promises to stick at catcher at the next level. Mitchell is a Texas commit. 15. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida Waldrep is in a group of four high-caliber college pitchers at the front of the 2023 draft. A transfer from Southern Mississippi, Waldrep used to be a reliever but is in his second season as a starter at Florida in a rotation that also boasts Brandon Sproat. Waldrep has a noisy, violent operation on the mound but excellent athleticism, strength and arm quickness. His repertoire features a mid-90s fastball that can grab upper 90s and even 100mph, in addition to an excellent slider with good tilt. The big development, prior to the '23 season has been the split change which disappears on hitters and is one of the nastiest pitches in the entire draft class. Waldrep has had mixed results in 2023, a 4.16 ERA not helped by 57 walks in 101.2 innings. 156 strikeouts in that same spell flashes the potential though. Waldrep has front of the rotation upside with some of the best secondaries in the entire draft (better sequencing than he experienced at Florida will lead to stronger results) but needs to be a more consistent strike thrower. 14. Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland Shaw demonstrated a huge power breakout in his sophomore season at Maryland, jumping from eight home runs to 22. In 2023, he took his offensive game to a new level with a .341/.445/.697 line through 62 games, keeping a steady 16 K% while increasing his BB% to 16%, in addition to slugging 24 home runs and stealing 18 bases. Shaw is a stocky middle infielder, who played shortstop for the Terps but is likely to slide over to second base as a pro. He's a proficient base stealer and a solid defender, but the headline is the bat that possesses power to all fields. Shaw has already shown his chops in the Cape, he checks a ton of boxes and may be picked in the teens in July. 13. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest Lowder is in the quartet in a group of incredibly impressive college pitchers in the '23 draft class. Although lacking the ceiling of Skenes and Dollander, Lowder has been an incredibly consistent and improving performer in his third year in the rotation of one of the best college teams in the country. In 121 innings in '23, Lowder has allowed a miniscule 1.87 ERA, striking out 143 and walking just 24. Lowder relies on three pitches. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can grab 96 mph, with sink that tends to generate ground balls instead of whiffs. His slider shape is more dependent on vertical movement than horizontal. His best pitch is his changeup, a devastating plus pitch which has a ton of fade and tumble. Lowder's current pitch shapes are somewhat out of vogue, but he's been an incredibly consistent performer in the ACC and should move quickly when he turns pro. 12. Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS, OR Meyer comes into the draft as a prototypical, projectable prep power arm. Meyer plays his prep ball at Jesuit, the same school that produced Mick Abel a few years ago and an area of the country increasingly producing high caliber pitching talent. 6'5 with an athletic, repeatable delivery, Meyer already features two plus pitches; a mid-90s fastball that can grab 98 mph with a ton of arm side run, and a sweeping slider that gets good horizontal movement. A deceptive three quarter arm slot and good control only adds to the boxes he already checks. Meyer's third pitch is a changeup, more of a work in progress and something he has rarely needed in games. Meyer has an extremely high ceiling and is likely a mid-first round pick, which should draw him away from his commitment to Oregon, particularly after earning rave reviews for his approach to pitching from teams who interviewed him at the Draft Combine. 11. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi Gonzalez, unusually, has started since his freshman year at Ole Miss, helping to bring them the 2022 College World Series title. He has some traits similar to Twins' 2022 first pick Brooks Lee in that he has excellent contact ability, doesn't strike out much, and probably isn't a shortstop at the next level. In 2023, Gonzalez put together a .327/.435/.564 line with 10 home runs, close to half his total in 2022. Gonzalez has a divisive swing, becoming a little disconnected through it, but his results in the SEC are hard to argue with. He may be destined for third base as he is so big bodied, despite a good arm and solid movement skills. Gonzalez is a high-floored prospect who should move quickly when he turns pro. Gonzalez should be an above average hitter with good power (mostly to the pull side). He’s become one of the toughest to predict prospects in the first round and could go anywhere from five to somewhere in the 20s. 10. Enrique Bradfield Jr, OF, Vanderbilt Bradfield is best known for his speed and is one of the fastest prospects in the '23 draft class, amassing over 130 stolen bases as a 91% success rate in three years at Vanderbilt at the time of writing. While there's not much power to speak of, Bradfield possesses a line drive swing to all fields and has excellent strike zone control. Through 233 at-bats in 2023, he'd amassed 19 BB% and 17 K%, both improvements on his rates from 2022. While Bradfield isn't a prototypical outfield hit/power bat, he's an excellent old-fashioned leadoff hitter type who should have gold-glove caliber defense and challenge for stolen base titles as a pro. 9. Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS, FL If you want a prospect to dream on in the '23 class, Nimmala is him. Nimmala will be just 17 on draft day and is all about projectability. Currently 6'0, 170 pounds, Nimmala has impressive bat speed with already well developed raw power at the plate. Nimmala's approach needs work, and his contact rates will have to improve if he's going to fulfill his potential. Nimmala should stick at shortstop long term. He's a smooth defender with a solid arm and good lateral quickness. The question with Nimmala moving forwards will be his hit tool. If it can develop to average or better, he'll have a massive impact with 30 home run potential at the next level. Nimmala has some serious steam this spring and should go high enough to sign away from his commitment to Florida State having earned rave reviews in private team workouts ahead of the draft. 8. Tommy Troy, 2B/3B, Stanford Tommy Troy has been working his way up draft boards since the beginning of the season to the point he's under consideration as a top ten pick. Despite missing time to injury, he's made his game time count so far in 2023. Through 249 at bats, Troy is slashing .394/.478/.699 with 17 home runs, 14 BB%, 17 K%, and 17 stolen bases. Impressively, Troy has assuaged concerns about his weaknesses so far in '23, cutting down on strikeouts and increasing walks and steals, increasing his impact all over the field. Long term, he's likely a bat first second or third baseman who could produce .275 with 25 home runs on a regular basis. 7. Kyle Teel, C, Virginia Teel is the top college catcher in this years' class and has been steadily moving up draft boards all spring. Teel has taken a significant step forward at the plate, production wise in '23, putting together a stellar .423/.487/.690 line through his first 60 games. It's not all good news though, as his walk rate has dropped from 20% in '22 to 13% in '23 (although he's cut his K% by 3% at the time of writing). Teel has an excellent hit tool, producing good bat speed and line drives all over the field. He has some pop in his bat and may develop more future power (with 13 home runs through his first 239 at bats in 2023). Defensively, Teel is versatile (could play third base or outfield) but ought to stick behind the dish. He's a solid defender with a plus arm and average speed. He's trending towards a Top 10 pick in July off the back of his excellent production in the ACC this season and his outstanding athleticism. 6. Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee Dollander was the top arm in the '23 class until Skenes burst onto the scene. Now, it’s incredibly difficult to predict where he might fall after an uneven 2023 season. Dollander has a smooth, repeatable three quarters operation with an extremely quick arm. His fastball has deception and ride and sits in the mid 90s, touching 99mph. Dollander also features a plus sweeping slider that sits in the mid 80s, a changeup and curveball which are currently a smidge above average. Dollander has had an up and down '23, amassing a 4.75 ERA through 89 innings at the time of writing with less control and command than he had in '22, although he still struck out 120 batters. Notably, his slider has regressed this season as he's generating less movement on the pitch and leaning more heavily on his fastball. Interested teams will hope these challenges are mechanical. Dollander still boasts front of the rotation upside and should be a top handful of picks in July. 5. Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community HS, IN Clark is one of two elite prep prospects in the 2023 draft class. Clark has an incredibly well-rounded skill set. A smooth swing that's short to the ball produces line drives all over the field. Clark worked this offseason to add more loft to his swing. He can make all the plays in the outfield with effortless defense thanks to double plus speed. Clark is a Vanderbilt commit but should sign as a top 10 pick. It'll be tough for him to overtake the college prospects at the top of the class as the prep season in Indiana starts so late. Even so, he should be among the first handful of players taken. He has four plus tools already, and a chance to be an All-Star, five-tool center fielder. 4. Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS, NC Jenkins is one of two premier prep prospects in the '23 class. At 6'3, 210, he's projectable and his athleticism is a clear separator. Jenkins has a quiet operation at the plate with excellent bat speed that gives him easy power to all fields. Jenkins is a good runner and route runner in the field with a plus arm. His speed may diminish over time, moving him to a corner spot eventually. Committed to North Carolina, Jenkins should be a top 5 pick in July and has the best hit/power combo of any prep bat and 30 home run potential at the next level. 3. Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU Skenes transferred to LSU after two years at Air Force, joining forces with Wes Johnson. He's currently in the midst of the best season from a college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg. Skenes primarily throws a fastball with good spin in the upper 90s that will touch 101 mph. In 2023, he's been maintaining velocity through 80-95 pitches into starts. Skenes' slider has taken strides in 2023 with good velocity (~90 mph) and plenty of horizontal break. Skenes features a changeup he has needed sparingly but used to good effect in the CWS. Skenes came to LSU as a two-way player but will leave the draft focused on pitching. Through the end of the CWS, Skenes has pitched 122.2 innings, giving up just 23 ER, walking 20, and striking out 209. If he stays healthy and continues to progress, Skenes has the physicality and stuff to be an ace. He should be a Top 3 pick in July. 2. Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida Langford is one of a trio of incredibly impressive college prospects at the top of the class. Langford barely played in 2021, his first at Florida before a tour de force as a sophomore in which he clubbed 26 home runs in 66 games. Despite missing some time with a lower body injury in 2023, he's on track to surpass his numbers from last season. Through the end of the CWS, he managed a .373/.498/.784 line with 21 bombs while increasing his BB% by 10% to 24%. He has easy power to all fields with 90th percentile Exit Velocity upwards of 110 mph. In the field, Langford has an average arm but good speed and a solid jump in the outfield. He may end up in left-field long term. Langford can be a consistent 30 HR outfielder at the next level with speed to boot, and should be a top 3 pick. 1. Dylan Crews, OF, LSU Crews has been on the draft map since high school. Since arriving at LSU, he's done nothing but mash. After hitting 18 home runs as a freshman, and 22 as a sophomore, he *averaged* over 100 mph Exit Velocity through early April. In 2023 through Regionals, Crews managed a .426/.567/.713 line with 18 HR, 18 K% and almost a 28 BB%. Ridiculous. His underlying metrics support the story on the back of the card with a 90th percentile Exit Velocity north of 109 mph. Crews is a good defender and has an excellent chance to stick at center field long term. Crews' all round profile is incredibly impressive, but the bat is the cherry on top. He hits the ball hard, and has extremely impressive contact rates. He should be the number one pick in July and a perennial All-Star outfielder at the next level. Which of the prospects are your favorites? Which do you think might be a fit for your favorite team? Join the discussion in the comments below. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp View full article

We are a little over a week away from day one of the 2023 MLB Draft. Who are the current top 50 players on JD Cameron’s Consensus Board? Let’s dig in. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp We are a little over a week away from day one of the 2023 MLB Draft. Who are the current top 50 players on JD Cameron’s Consensus Board? Let’s dig in. We’re finally in the home stretch, and the MLB Draft is only a handful of days. In the coming week, I’ll release the final Consensus Board. The timing is tricky, as there are plenty of outlets who haven’t released their final pre-draft rankings just yet. So, here’s a taster of what’s to come. Here’s the current state of the top 50 consensus prospects, split into 50-26, and 25-1. It’s likely that prospects' positions in the final rankings will be slightly different, as final inputs for the Consensus Board are updated. If you enjoy these rankings, be sure to look out for my final board, where you’ll find over 200 players ranked, with over 100 written up. 50. Brandon Sproat, RHP, Florida Sproat has been the Friday night starter for one of the best college teams in the country for the last two seasons. A veteran of the draft (he was selected by the Rangers in the 7th round in 2019 and the Mets in the 3rd round in 2022), Sproat elected to return to school. His repertoire is headlined by a fastball that sits at 96 miles per hour but can grab 100. His best secondary offering is a sharp slider. He also features a curveball and a changeup, both of which need further development. Sproat has been pretty uneven in 2023. While he's struck out 106 batters in 84 innings, he's walked 36. (In fairness, his control was significantly improved in the second half of the season, after a rough start.) The arm talent is undoubtedly there, and Sproat profiles as a top-60 pick, but he'll need to throw strikes more consistently and refine pitch shapes as a pro to remain a starter. 49. Josh Knoth, Patchogue Medford HS, NY Knoth is another prospect who wasn't on Version 1 of the consensus board. A prep arm from the northeast, he's taken significant strides in 2023. Knoth is a smaller-framed pitcher, but has a simple, repeatable delivery and good athleticism on the mound. His arsenal consists of a fastball that operated between 90-92 mph last summer, but which now typically sits in the 93-95 mph range. It's likely he'll be able to add even more velocity to this pitch. He has a real ability to spin the ball, having a curve that surpasses 3,000 rpm, gets a ton of good depth, and that he can land for strikes. Knoth also has a changeup that's more of a work in progress. Knoth has been dominant this season, and is one of the buzziest helium prep arms in the draft. Knoth is committed to Mississippi. 48. Alexander Clemmey, LHP, Bishop Hendricken HS, RI Clemmey is that most valuable of MLB Draft commodities, a left-handed starting pitcher with good velocity and good stuff. He throws a fastball that usually sits in the 92-95 mph range but can reach 97 mph and has a ton of carry. His primary breaking pitch is a slider with two-plane tilt. Finally, he throws a changeup he has rarely needed, which is currently more of a fringy, developmental pitch. Clemmey does have some concerns associated with a violent pitching motion, but it's a really solid package of velocity, stuff, and ability to spin the ball (in addition to being a southpaw). Clemmey is currently committed to Vanderbilt. 47. Travis Honeyman, OF, Boston College Honeyman is a 'solid-across-the-board' type prospect who at least partially checks almost every box, without emphatically checking any of them. In '23, he performed well for a surprisingly good BC team. Through the end of the college season, he put together a .304/.383/.534 line with six home runs. Honeyman has a good hit tool, and some raw power, particularly to the pull side. He rarely strikes out (13 K%), but rarely walks either (8 BB%). Defensively, Honeyman is likely a left fielder, with a fringy arm and solid speed. While not 'wowing' with one particular tool, Honeyman has all the ingredients to be a solid MLB outfielder, with more on the table if a team feels like there's something specific to tap into to further his ceiling. 46. Cade Kuehler, RHP, Campbell Kuehler is an arm who should interest many teams. Pitching for Campbell as their number-one starter in '23 (after backing up Thomas Harrington last season), he put together a great season for a Camels program churning out high-end draft talent. In 73 innings of work, Kuehler has struck out 91 and walked 26, both improved rates from 2022, where control was one of the primary knocks against him. Kuehler already has two plus pitches, a high-spin fastball that sits 93-95 mph but can grab 98 mph, and a sharp-breaking slider. He also features a curveball and changeup, both of which are works in progress. Kuehler has some reliever risk due to control issues and some challenges repeating his delivery. The improvements he's made in '23 should be cause for optimism that he can stick as a starter at the next level. 45. Blake Wolters, RHP, Mahomet Seymour HS, IL Wolters has shot up draft boards after not making the initial consensus board. A super-projectable prep righty, Wolters already has mid-90s velocity on his fastball, although he can reach back for the upper 90s underpinned by smooth, loose mechanics. His secondary pitches are not yet as developed as his fastball. His slider shows a ton of promise and has plenty of horizontal movement, and is already above-average. Wolters also has a split-change that's going to be more of a project. The velocity and slider potential are exciting, and Wolters has established himself as one of the most talked-about, high-ceiling prep pitchers entering the Draft. Wolters is an Arizona commit. 44. Cameron Johnson, LHP, IMG Academy, FL At 6'4" and 240 pounds, Johnson is an imposing presence on the mound. The left-hander uses a three-pitch mix. His fastball is already plus, comfortably sitting at 96 mph with plenty of sink. His best secondary offering right now is an above-average slider that's developed well this season and is missing bats more frequently. Finally, Johnson has a fringy changeup that could become a serviceable pitch with further development. Johnson has a deceptive three-quarters arm slot that makes his delivery difficult for hitters to pick up. He's been an inconsistent strike thrower to this point, dividing opinions on whether he will remain a starter. If he can, Johnson could be a powerful arm. He's currently committed to LSU and might be a tough sign, although a strong Draft Combine generated plenty of buzz around him. 43. Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State Watts-Brown is an athletic mover on the mound. The 6'3" righty transferred to OSU from Long Beach State, and has had a strong first season in the Big 12, striking out 124 hitters in his first 82.1 innings of work while walking 48. Watts-Brown currently has a four-pitch mix. His heat sits at 92-95 mph but can grab 97. It doesn't have a ton going for it analytically, and Watts-Brown has struggled to make hitters whiff with it. He does have great extension, though, and should be able to add to the fastball after turning pro. His slider is his best pitch, producing swings and misses wherever and whenever he throws them. Watts-Brown also has a solid curveball and changeup. Watts-Brown hasn't thrown enough strikes in 2023. If he can clean up his control and generate more swing-and-miss on his fastball, he can stick in the middle of a rotation. 42. Ralphy Velazquez, C/1B, Huntington Beach HS, CA Velazquez is a big-framed prep catcher whose development behind the plate has teams excited this spring. He has a short, smooth, left-handed swing that gives him easy power. The big draw is his eye at the plate. Velazquez doesn't tend to expand the zone, and he has excellent contact numbers that should translate to great on-base skills as a professional. His defensive work at catcher needs refinement, but that's normal for a prep catcher, and he is young for his class. Currently committed to Arizona State, Velazquez should go somewhere in the first two rounds. 41. Travis Sykora, RHP, Round Rock HS, TX Sykora is a hard-throwing prep righty out of Texas who's currently committed to the Longhorns. He has the hardest fastball of any prep hurler in the class, consistently sitting between 96-98 mph but surpassing 100 frequently. For secondary pitches, Sykora has an average slider and an above-average split changeup. Neither secondary pitch is the finished product; both need refinement that will come with development and time. Like many hard-throwing young pitchers, Sykora doesn't yet have great control, and he will need to become a more consistent strike thrower to thrive as a starter long-term. If Sykora can develop his secondaries and stay healthy, he has the arm to be a serious problem at the next level. The arm talent is what you’re drafting here. Sykora has a simple delivery from a three-quarter slot that is pretty repeatable, which will support his need to improve his strike throwing consistency and refine his secondary pitches. 40. Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas HS, NY Stafura is another 'where did he come from?' prospect. A prep shortstop from the Northeast who performed well on the showcase circuit last summer. Stafura has a surprising amount of polish and a strong all-around game. Offensively, he has a good approach, frequently making hard contact with gap-to-gap power. Although he already has home run power to the pull side. Stafura has put up plus run times and has at least average defense at shortstop, such that he should be able to stick at the position as a pro. He's gone from nonexistent on a lot of boards to almost universally a top-75 type player. Stafura is currently committed to Clemson. 39. Adrian Santana, SS, Doral Academy, FL Santana is one of the youngest prep prospects in the class, and has been a riser on draft boards throughout the spring. Offensively, he has a good swing with gap-to-gap in-game power that could develop into home run power as he fills out his slight 160-pound frame. He’s a premium defensive shortstop with at least plus speed--a plus defender with a plus arm. If he grows and develops an above-average hit tool with above-average power, he'll have a long career ahead as a starting shortstop. Santana is currently committed to Miami. 38. Johnny Farmelo, OF, Westfield HS, VA Farmelo is an athletic outfielder with strong tools across the board. He has a smooth left-handed swing that is adding more power. He already makes good contact and has a calm operation at the plate, with a toe tap and minimal movement as he loads.. He has plus speed that gives him the potential to be an impactful center fielder. Farmelo has a great floor for a prep prospect, with at least an average grade on every tool. He may be a tough sign (he's a Virginia commit) as a few years of development in college could put him on a clear first-round trajectory, although he’s in that mix already. 37. Brice Matthews, SS, Nebraska Matthews is a helium guy. Already significantly higher on the draft board than he would have been entering 2023, he's made incredible strides in every area of his offensive game. A former quarterback and an exceptional athlete, Matthews has been especially great against fastballs. His power is mostly to the pull side currently. Good hands, solid defensive actions and a good arm give him a chance to stick at shortstop. If not, right field or even center field could be a fit; he has enough athleticism to be a versatile defender. In 2023, he hit a ridiculous .359/.481/.723 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases (that's up from .261/.379/.446 in 2022). He's cut his strikeouts from 35% to 26 K%, his walks have increased from 15% to 23%. If you buy the breakout (and there's no reason not to), Matthews could be one of the steals of the draft. I expect him to be a significant riser on the final editions of the Consensus Board. 36. Jake Gelof, 3B, Virginia Gelof has been pulverizing baseballs all season as Virginia's third baseman. Through the end of the college season, he had an impressive .321/.427/.710 line with 23 home runs, walking 19% of the time and striking out at the same rate. The younger brother of a prospect in the As system, Gelof is an aggressive hitter and taps into plus raw power, particularly to the pull side. Defensively, Gelof has an above-average arm and is at least average at third base. He's a sluggish mover, though, and may transition to first base long-term. Either way, the bat plays. He's got plenty of power to be a significant offensive contributor as a pro. 35. Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State Colton Ledbetter is one of the analytical darlings of the '23 draft class. Through 53 games for MSU, he hit .320/.452/.574, with a 24 BB% and 18 K%. Ledbetter consistently puts up really solid exit velocities, with his top figure surpassing 115 miles per hour, and combines that with excellent contact ability, rarely whiffing in the zone. He's flown a little under the radar as a transfer to FSU, but I've seen his name as a top-10 player on draft boards. Defensively, Ledbetter is a good athlete, but likely profiles in a corner spot long-term. He's going to be popular with model-heavy teams, although he may need to be less passive in the zone as a pro. He's one of my favorite college bats in the '23 class. 34. Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn HS, OH Emerson is a prep shortstop out of Ohio who was a promising wide receiver before electing to focus solely on baseball. His biggest strength is his hit tool. He has a line drive swing to all parts of the field, has strong in-zone contact rates, and doesn't chase too much. He hasn't developed much in-game power yet, but stands to have at least average raw power. Defensively, Emerson is a solid shortstop with an above-average arm. He'll likely move off the position eventually and the arm will play at third base. Even if he moves position and only develops average power, Emerson's hit tool is enough to carry an offensive profile as a professional. Emerson is currently committed to Auburn. 33. Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Academy, FL Soto has been one of the prep pitching darlings of the '23 draft cycle. A 6'3", physical, athletic right-handed starter who is relatively new to pitching, he's come on in leaps and bounds over the last year. He features a three-pitch mix. His fastball sits 94-96 mph, but can grab 98 mph. He has a biting power slider that he primarily throws to same-handed hitters, and a changeup with legit tumble and fade when it's on. While Soto can be an inconsistent strike thrower, his athleticism and the fact he'll be 17 on draft day mean a team will be in on him in the top 25 picks in July. Soto is currently committed to Central Florida. 32. Roch Cholowsky, SS, Hamilton HS, AZ Cholowsky, son of a former MiLB player and current Reds scout, is another impressive two-sport athlete, having the option to play baseball and football at UCLA. On the diamond, he's a hit-over-power type prospect. Currently, he doesn’t have much access to in-game power, although this could change as he grows, matures, and develops. Cholowsky is a legit defensive shortstop. He has a strong arm, moves well, is a plus runner, and is a smooth operator in the field, and is particularly adept at making plays and throws on the run, which is no surprise when you consider his skill at quarterback. He’s part of a very exciting group of prep infielders in the 20-50 range. 31. Walker Martin, SS, Eaton HS, CO Martin is a lefthanded-hitting prep shortstop who started gathering steam in early spring, in the midst of a power breakout. A multiple-sport athlete, Martin is athletic and projectable at 6'2" and 185 pounds. He has a clean, efficient swing that bangs line drives all over the diamond, in addition to a recent outbreak of pull-side home runs. Martin is a solid defensive shortstop and a good mover, although he'll need to continue to develop the fluidity of his hands defensively. While he may eventually move to third base, his offensive profile will fit there just fine. The Arkansas commit has been getting plenty of attention from teams in the back half of the first round. 30. Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech Hurley has been an incredibly productive outfielder for the last two years, in an outfield that produced top-10 pick Gavin Cross in 2022. So far in '23, he's kept at it, managing a .320/.413/.805 line with 17 home runs and 15 doubles in 45 games played. There aren't a ton of holes to pick in Hurley's game. His approach will need refinement as a pro, as he strikes out too much and his walk rate has dipped in 2023. Additionally, he has an average arm that probably makes him destined for a corner outfield spot long term. He's an above-average runner, though, and has enough to be an extremely well-rounded outfielder at the next level and a significant offensive contributor. 29. Dillon Head, OF, Homewood Flossmoor HS, IL Dillon Head is a left-handed center fielder currently committed to Clemson. He has an excellent combination of an above-average hit tool (on the way to plus) and legit 70-grade speed in center field. Head doesn't have much power at the plate; his approach currently produces gap-to-gap line drives. With his speed, this results in a ton of doubles and triples. If he continues to add strength, Head could be good for 10-15 home runs per year. He plays excellent defense, aided by his speed and an above-average arm. Any power development in his senior year could see Head rise up draft boards rapidly, although he’s already firmly in the day one conversation. 28. George Lombard Jr, SS, Gulliver Prep HS, FL Lombard's dad was a second-rounder, and now serves as the bench coach for the Tigers. Lombard, Jr. is a toolsy, well-rounded infield prospect who has an excellent all-around game. He has a smooth right-handed swing; can spray the baseball all over the field; and should eventually have plus power. He does have some swing-and-miss to his approach, which will be an area of refinement when he turns pro. Defensively, while he's spent most of his time on the left side of the infield, he may end up at second base or a corner outfield position, depending on how much he fills out. This is one of the best prep bats in the class. I'd expect him to be closer to a first-round consensus ranking when the final board is released. Lombard is currently committed to Vanderbilt. 27. Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy, MA White has the kind of projectability it's easy to dream on heading into a draft: 18 years old; 6'5"; left-handed; already throwing mid- to upper-90s gas. He's been on the radar of teams for a long time, as left-handed starters are rare commodities. White throws a mid-90s fastball that many believe will be closer to triple digits when his development is optimized. He's experimented with both a curveball and slider (a slider would be better for him) as a primary breaking pitch, and a fringy changeup that's a work in progress. While athletic and fluid, White has been inconsistent with his release point, which has impacted his control. That will be a major factor in determining his success moving forward. In terms of ingredients, White has massive upside. High risk, high reward. White is currently committed to Vanderbilt. 26. Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic We'll get this out the way, Schanuel is one of my favorite prospects in the entire draft class. A starter all three years at Florida Atlantic, he's raked since day one. In '23, Schanuel was the only hitter in college baseball, preventing Dylan Crews from the top of every statistical leaderboard. Schanuel's greatest strength is probably his elite approach at the plate. In '23, his average exit velocity exceeded 95 mph, his 90th-percentile exit velocity exceeded 106 mph, and he rarely whiffs in the zone. That's not to mention 19 home runs, walking 36% of the time and striking out just 7%. You can ding him for being a first baseman and playing slightly weaker competition than some of his peers, but Schanuel is an elite hitter. I think he's a first-round talent. You can worry about defensive positioning later. Which of the prospects are your favorites? Which do you think might be a fit for your favorite team? Join the discussion in the comments below. View full article

Enrique Bradfield Jr is a centerfield prospect who currently sits 11th on the Consensus Board. In three seasons at Vanderbilt, 80 grade speed and defense have helped him emerge as an impact MLB prospect, particularly in light of base stealing increases in 2023. Bradfield has a more well-rounded and intriguing profile than you might imagine. What does he offer the Cubs? How might he be a fit on the North Side? Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Cubs could take with the 13th pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Who is He? Enrique Bradfield Jr. is a left-handed center fielder out of Vanderbilt. His underlying speed (he is possibly the fastest player in this draft) gives him a solid floor as an elite defensive center fielder at the pro level. Bradfield currently sits at eleventh on the Consensus Board, with rankings ranking from 8-17. He has been in a similar spot since the beginning of the pre-draft process and initial spring rankings were released in February, which speaks to the value of his athletic trait tools. Why the Cubs Will Draft Him It might be easy to assume that Bradfield’s value might be limited to speed and defense, instead, it’s added to by an average to above average hit tool. Bradfield has a swing characterized by a flat bat path, leading to plenty of line drives and ground balls that allow him to leverage his speed. He accompanies this with an excellent approach at the plate, with a 16 BB% in 2023. Bradfield has typically struck out at a rate close to his walk rate in his three seasons at Vanderbilt, with that strong on base skill set allowing him to steal 130 bases in 191 games. While Bradfield has a below average arm in centerfield, his range more than makes up for it. His speed and route efficiency allow him to cover huge amounts of ground in the outfield. His floor is buoyed by speed and defense, how much he hits will determine his ceiling. Why the Cubs Won’t Draft Him Bradfield doesn’t offer much in the way of power and is not a profile that lines up with a typical first round college outfield selection. In three seasons at Vanderbilt, he hit just 15 home runs, and 31 doubles. There’s not much reason to suspect there’s more in the tank here, but MLB’s rule changes to favor stolen bases and aggressive base running ought to increase his value as a base stealer. I think it remains more likely that the Cubs draft a college pitcher or college infielder at 13. While Bradfield isn’t a typical profile, it’s likely some folks will undervalue him not digging into the speed/defense assets thoroughly enough. What do you think of Enrique Bradfield Jr as a prospect? How would you feel about him being the Cubs pick at 13 overall? Join the discussion in the comments. Image courtesy of Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK View full article

I hear that. While its the most difficult tool to scout, I think there's enough in his 'hit' tool to allay some of those concerns, specifically; good plate coverage, good contact % and z contact %, good approach and improved plate discipline every year at Stanford, and compact swing mechanics.

Tommy Troy is a college third base prospect whose complete offensive profile has led to him being projected as a top 15 pick for the entirety of the pre-draft process. Troy took steps forward offensively in 2023, building on what was already an exciting foundation. He'll be on of the many potential candidates for the Cubs to consider with the thirteenth overall pick. Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Cubs could take with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Who is He? Tommy Troy is a 21 year old infielder out of Stanford University. His exceptional 2023 campaign for the Cardinal helped propel them to a College World Series berth. Currently sitting at 12th overall on the Consensus Board, Troy has continued to take steps forward in 2023. His well rounded skill set, combined with consistently outstanding performances on the Cape, make him one of the higher-floored college bats in a class loaded with them. Why the Cubs Will Draft Him Troy doesn’t necessarily have a carrying tool, because they are all pretty good. He has a short, right-handed swing and makes consistent hard contact, particularly on fastballs, where his contact percentage is north of 90%. Troy has power to all fields, particularly the pull side, in addition to a patient approach at the plate. He’s improved every year at Stanford. In 2023, he managed a .398/.481/.707 line with 17 home runs and 17 stolen bases. He lowered his strikeouts from 20 K% in 2022, to 16 K% in 2023, increasing his walks to 14 BB% in 2023, a career high. Why the Cubs Won’t Draft Him At the plate, Troy has consistently punished fastballs, but had more challenges handling spin on off-speed pitches, hardly unique for an amateur hitter, but something to monitor as he turns pro. Defensively, Troy has enough to play on the dirt. At Stanford, he’s split time between second and third base with at least average defensive actions and at least an average arm. The defense isn’t what you're buying, though. Troy profiles to offer defensive infield versatility, hit somewhere in the .260-.280 range, with 20 home run power. That’s a skillset that will serve a drafting major league team well for the long term. What do you think of Tommy Troy as a prospect? How would you feel about him being the Cubs pick at 13th overall? Join the discussion in the comments. Image courtesy of Dylan Widger, USA Today Sports View full article

This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Cubs might take with the 81st overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Cubs might take with the 81st overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team. The Cubs are in an interesting position entering the 2023 MLB Draft. They have $8.9 million to spend, and three top 100 picks (they forfeited their second-round draft pick after signing Dansby Swanson). The 2023 Draft class is loaded with talent, one of the strongest in years. In the buildup to the Draft, we're going to share some names to watch at particular spots that give an indication of the caliber of talent that might be available for a particular pick. Today, we'll dig into the Cubs pick at #68 overall. Jace Bohrofen Position: OF, Age: 21, School: Arkansas, Height: 6’2, Weight: 200, B/T: L/R, Rank: 59 Bohrofen was a legitimate prep prospect in Oklahoma when his senior season was significantly impacted by COVID 19. After making it to campus at Oklahoma, injury and middling performance impacted his playing time, as it did in his 2022 season after transferring to Arkansas. He put it all together in 2023 however, having an excellent offensive campaign. Bohrofen has a compact left handed swing, has improved his contact numbers and already has above average power to all fields. He parlayed this into a .318/.436/.612 line with 16 home runs and 15 doubles in 2023. While he strikes out too much (29 K% in 2023), he also walks a decent amount (15 BB% in 2023). Defensively, it’ll be a corner spot with solid defense and an average arm. The offensive profile will play though, particularly if he can build on the improvement to his hit tool in 2023. Luke Keaschall Position: SS, Age: 21, School: Arizona State, Height: 6’1, Weight: 190, B/T: R/R, Rank: 71 Keashcall spent his first two college seasons at the University of San Francisco and was a veteran of the Cape Cod League before transferring to Arizona State for his junior season. Playing shortstop for the Sun Devils, he offers a hit over power package at the plate. He has a good approach and there's not a ton of swing and miss in his profile. Through the end of the 2023 season Keaschall hit .353/.443/.725 with 18 home runs and 18 steals. That's an impressive return for a significant step up in competition. Keaschall doesn't walk much (10 BB%) but he doesn't strike out much either (13 K%). His long term home isn't shortstop, as he doesn't have the arm. A shift to second base makes sense. It's a really solid floor overall, particularly if he can continue to develop his power stroke. Kemp Alderman Position: 1B, Age: 20, School: Ole Miss, Height: 6’4, Weight: 240, B/T: R/R, Rank: 84 Alderman is a slugging first baseman who offers massive power and not a ton of defensive value, although you could try him in right field as he has a plus arm. At the plate, he has easy plus (maybe double plus) power and has put up some of the better EVs in college baseball in 2023. He's put together a loud season in 2023, .376/.440/.709 with 19 home runs in the SEC is impressive, and he's running a 12 BB% and 19 K%. There's some swing and miss to his profile, but the power is legit. Sean Sullivan Position: LHP, Age: 21, School: Wake Forest, Height: 6’4, Weight: 190, B/T: R/L, Rank: 86 Sullivan is a transfer from Northwestern who has been a revelation for the Demon Deacons this season. He's a left-hander who operates with a funky motion and a low release point which gives his fastball a ton of deception, even though it only sits in the low 90s currently. Sullivan also boasts two above average breaking pitches, a sweeping slider and a changeup with good fade. Sullivan does a good job throwing strikes and would be a great fit for a team that thinks they can add some velocity to the fastball. In 2023 he managed a 3.11 ERA, striking out 70 in his first 46 1/3 innings, while allowing just 15 walks in a tough conference. Sullivan has been one of the pitching stories of the 2023 college baseball season. Who are your favorite prospects mentioned? What are other names that intrigue you with this pick? Join our draft speculation in the comments below. View full article

This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Cubs might focus on with the 68th overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team. Think of this more as a 'state of play' of what the board might look like when we get to pick 68. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Cubs might focus on with the 68th overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team. Think of this more as a 'state of play' of what the board might look like when we get to pick 68. The Cubs are in an interesting position entering the 2023 MLB Draft. They have $8.9 million to spend, and three top 100 picks (they forfeited their second-round draft pick after signing Dansby Swanson). The 2023 Draft class is loaded with talent, one of the strongest in years. In the buildup to the Draft, we're going to share some names to watch at particular spots that give an indication of the caliber of talent that might be available for a particular pick. Today, we'll dig into the Cubs pick at #68 overall. Nazzan Zanetello Position: 3B, Age: 18, School: Christian Brothers HS, MO, Height: 6’2, Weight: 170, B/T: R/R, Rank: 58 Zanetello is a prototypical ‘toolsy’ prep prospect that broke onto the scene during the showcase circuit in the summer of 2022. The descriptor might be a misnomer for him though, as it implies a rawness and lack of polish that Zanetello doesn’t really show. He has a well-rounded profile, underpinned by exceptional athleticism. He has a slightly long swing at the plate, but drives the ball with purpose and has a ton of projection left, which should lead to at least above average power, with an average hit tool. He’s put up plus, but inconsistent run times although his speed is at least above average. Defensively, he’s played shortstop, outfield, and third base, with his strong athletic profile allowing him positional flexibility and instinctive, smooth defensive actions should help him maintain it. Zanetello is committed to Arkansas; he could easily be a prospect with a lot of loud tools in a few years time if he decides to turn pro. Brandon Sproat Position: RHP, Age: 22, School: Florida, Height: 6’3, Weight: 220, B/T: R/R, Rank: 60 Sproat has an unusually large range of rankings from the inputs used in the Consensus Board, anywhere from the 40s to the low 100s, representative of how enigmatic a performer he has been for Florida. He was one of the highest picks not to sign in the 2022 Draft (3rd round, Mets) leaving him as one of the oldest starting pitching prospects in the 2023 Draft. Sproat has a solid four-pitch arsenal with undeniable arm talent, but there are a lot of orange flags in the profile for me. His fastball sits 94-98 mph; he’s been up to 100 mph but doesn’t have a lot of interesting characteristics. His breakers are a slider that's a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch, and a more generic curveball. He also has a changeup with a lot of fade that he doesn’t use a ton. Sproat has struck out 106 in 84 innings of work thus far in 2023, walking 36. If a team can help him improve his control and refine his pitch shapes, the arm talent is there to sit in the middle of a rotation. Max Anderson Position: 3B, Age: 21, School: Nebraska, Height: 6’0, Weight: 215, B/T: R/R, Rank: 63 Anderson is coming off a monster breakout for Nebraska in 2023. While this was his first big college season, some of his underlying numbers have suggested this might be coming. There’s a ton to like about his offensive profile, particularly for model heavy teams. He hits the ball really hard (90th percentile EV ~105 mph), doesn’t strike out much and has good in-zone contact numbers. There are some areas to refine, though. He will expand the zone and chase, and he rarely takes a walk, so there’s refinement in the approach needed. Additionally, Anderson will need to continue working on loft, as he has had a high ground ball rate throughout his collegiate career. The bat speed is there though for above average power. Defensively, the actions are fine but the arm is fringy, it’s probably an average defensive third base profile at best. The offense more than fits the bill though. I think he’ll wind up as an early day two pick. Kiefer Lord Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Washington, Height: 6’3, Weight: 190, B/T: R/R, Rank: 66 Lord has been a sneaky below the radar college arm that become more noticeable as the college season has gone on. A transfer from Carleton (MN) to the University of Washington, Lord has taken advantage of a more data rich college environment in 2023. His fastball is his best pitch currently. It sits around 94-95 mph and gets up to 97 mph. With some additional projection, that could end up a triple digit pitch. It has good ride and plays really well up in the zone. He has two breakers, a slider and curveball. The slider is better at the moment and has good two-plane tilt, although Lord has shown the ability to spin the baseball so there’s room for improvement on the curveball. He also has a changeup he’s used sparingly. Lord has walked 17 hitters in over 72 innings of work in 2023 (struck out 75) which represents a step forward for his control. There’s a lot to like here, a solid four pitch arsenal, with projection left. If someone can help him tweak the breaking pitches, he could be a really effective starting pitcher. Josh Knoth Position: RHP, Age: 17, School: Pachogue Medford HS, NY, Height: 6’1, Weight: 190, B/T: R/R, Rank: 67 Knoth is the definition of a helium arm. He wasn’t on the Consensus Board at all through March, April, and appeared in the top 100 in May. He’s a cold weather arm, so that’s understandable. It’s also easy to see why folks are so excited about the Ole Miss commit. Knoth hails from the same high school as Marcus Stroman and is himself an undersized right-handed starting pitcher. He throws his fastball up to 96 mph with good arm speed from a three quarters slot. The asset for Knoth currently is his ability to spin a baseball. He has a hard breaking curveball with elite spin rates (~3200 rpm) that he can land for strikes. It has a ton of bite and just falls away from hitters. Knoth also has a changeup which needs refinement. His control should develop to at least average, if not better. Knoth will be 17 on draft day, which will give him a boost in models. It’s easy to be excited about the projection here if Knoth continues to add velocity and works towards a serviceable third pitch. Who are your favorite prospects mentioned? What are other names that intrigue you with this pick? Join our draft speculation in the comments below. View full article

In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players whom the Cubs could target with their first pick in next month's MLB Draft, at No. 13. This week, we’re looking at pitchers. For these pieces, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players whom the Cubs could target with their first pick in next month's MLB Draft, at No. 13. This week, we’re looking at pitchers. For these pieces, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Chase Dollander Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Tennessee, Height: 6’3, Weight: 195, B/T: R/R, Rank: 7 Dollander was a consensus top three pick for the early part of the season. His fall down the rankings is due as much to the rise and dominance of Paul Skenes as it is to his own uneven performance in 2023. So what does Dollander offer, and what type of emphasis should we place on his 2023 performance? While Dollander’s production and stuff has taken a step back in 2023, he’s still an excellent prospect with a diverse, high-quality arsenal of pitches. His fastball sits 94-96 mph (although it’s hit 99 mph) and is thrown from a low release in his three-quarters slot. It’s not an elite pitch, but serves to set up his breaking pitches exceptionally well. Dollander has a curveball which is above-average and has an excellent chase rate (and a pitch he can land for strikes). His best pitch is probably his slider, a nasty sweeper with a ton of horizontal movement that’s death on hitters. He also has a changeup which has a ton of fade and could be another plus pitch for him. The foundation of four pitches, three of which could be plus, is still incredibly exciting. Two challenges have plagued Dollander in 2023. He’s lost some control, walking almost double the amount of hitters than he did in 2022 at the time of writing. Additionally, his slider metrics have ticked back, resulting in him throwing the pitch less, and having to rely more heavily on his fastball. There have been a number of smart baseball folk suggesting Dollander’s challenges in 2023 are more mechanical than anything else. There’s a front of the rotation arm in there, who's already proved it over the course of the 2022 season. Hurston Waldrep Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Florida, Height: 6’2, Weight: 205, B/T: R/R, Rank: 13 Waldrep has an argument for the best series of secondary pitches in the entire draft. Originally a relief pitcher for Southern Miss, he transferred to Florida after breaking out as a starter in 2022, amassing 140 strikeouts in just over 90 innings of work. His pitching arsenal is led by a fastball that sits 95-97 mph and has good carry to it, which helps it play up in the zone. The command of the fastball has been inconsistent and he’s been made to throw it far too much for the Gators. Waldrep has a great sweeping slider, which is a 70-grade pitch and a whiff machine already. That’s paired with a curveball that has more 12-6 action to it. Finally, he throws a devastating split-change that he’s been able to land for strikes at the bottom of the zone and has a whiff rate north of 60%. Waldrep’s control has been shaky (42 walks in 72.2 innings at the time of writing in 2023). He has a drop and drive approach on the mound and great arm speed but a noisy delivery. He might be the best argument there is for ignoring performance outcomes in college baseball. He has one of the most complete repertoires of any starter in the draft and a chance for three secondary pitches that are at least plus. I think he has the second most upside of a pitcher in the draft outside of Skenes. Noble Meyer Position: RHP, Age: 18, School: Jesuit HS, OR, Height: 6’5, Weight: 200, B/T: R/R, Rank: 14 Meyer has established himself as the top prep arm in the 2023 draft. Hailing from Jesuit High School in Oregon, the same one that recently produced Mick Abel, Meyer has big projectability that will have organizations excited about what his future holds. Meyer broke out in the summer of 2022 on the showcase circuit, featuring a fastball that sat 95-97 mph, thrown from a slightly deceptive slot that gives hitters fits. He’s been up to triple digits with the pitch this year in shorter starts. He pairs it with a great slider that is generating a ton of swing and miss that he has impressive command over for a prep arm. Meyer also has a changeup that is more of a work in progress. His pitching motion is athletic and repeatable. There’s still a ton of projectability left for Meyer as he fills out more and adds strength. He has a great starter profile and teams with a track record of developing high school pitching should be incredibly excited about Meyer’s long term upside. Rhett Lowder Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Wake Forest, Height: 6’2, Weight: 200, B/T: R/R, Rank: 15 Lowder qualifies as the highest-floor, lowest-ceiling member of the four top college pitchers available in July. There’s still plenty to like about Lowder’s profile however and he shined at Wake Forest in 2023, one of the college programs most noted for an analytical approach to player development. Lowder has 3 pitches he uses regularly. His fastball is a sinker, typically thrown in the 92-95 mph range, although he has reached back for 97 mph. He gets a ton of ground balls with it. He’s also thrown a more typical four seam fastball at the top of the zone to get hitters a different look. For secondary pitches he throws a slider, with more downward break than sweep. His best pitch is a changeup which has a ton of fade and is one of the better examples in the whole class. Lowder caps his profile off with good control and command of all of his pitches. In 2023 he walked just 17 in around 90 innings of work with 108 strikeouts at the time of writing. Lowder has a polished, middle of the rotation profile and is likely open to an analytically minded approach. Thomas White Position: LHP, Age: 18, School: Phillips Academy, MA, Height: 6’5, Weight: 210, B/T: L/L, Rank: 24 White is the one name to make the list who appears a little down the consensus board. There’s a real lack of quality left-handed pitching options in the 2023 draft, with the distinct possibility that a left-handed college pitcher won’t be taken in the first round for the first time in over 30 years. On the prep side, White is the best available. White has been on the prospect map forever. He has a tall but wiry frame at present and will likely have a jump in velocity as he adds more weight. His fastball sits 93-95 mph currently, thrown from a low angle, combined with great extension, making it very tough for hitters to pick up. White has experimented with both a slider and curveball, often mixing the two. The curveball is already an above average pitch and his ability to spin the baseball suggests White should be able to develop at least one of those into a really effective offering. White has also shown propensity for a changeup, although he’s used it less than his breaking pitches and it’s average at the moment. White is more of a ‘projection pick’ that a ‘current talent’ pick, but he has all the ingredients to develop into a really effective starting pitcher. He’s currently committed to Vanderbilt. Which of the players profiled do you like best as a fit for your team? Is there anyone you’ve read about or watched who you think is missing? Draft speculation is the best speculation, so join the discussion in the comments. View full article

I think Davis' breakout is legit. Contact% over 80+ (increase of about 10%), Barrel% up, 90th percentile EV north of 108mph. He's the player on my board currently not ranked top 15 who I think will go top 15 (which means I'll probably be wrong lol).

Yes, for sure finished product. I think there's an opportunity to be more clear about comps (which I should just stay away from altogether). Here's my thought: Production comp - who would the numbers be similar to? Aesthetic comp - element of swing o delivery that mimics current or former player. In Troy's case, it's a production comp to established Dozier.

In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players whom the Cubs could target with their first pick in the 2023 Draft. They didn't get lucky in the lottery in December, so they'll pick 13th, but there should still be some interesting talent on the board at that time. We’ll start by profiling some hitters, before looking at pitchers next week. For each installment, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Kyle Teel Position: C, Age: 21, School: Virginia, Height: 6’1, Weight: 190, B/T: L/R, Rank: 10 Few players have done more to help themselves in the 2023 college season than Kyle Teel. A dearth of catching talent (both collegiate and prep) and Teel’s impressive offensive breakout have him primed to be a top-15 pick--possibly top-10. Offensively, Teel projects to have above-average hit and power tools, although the former is currently the carrying tool. He has good bat speed and plenty of analytics-friendly outputs of his approach at the plate. His in-zone contact rates are excellent, and despite some swing-and-miss, Teel spoils plenty of pitches outside the zone, such that he’s a tough out. Defensively, there’s work to do, but he should stick behind the plate. He’s one of the best athletes in the entire college class and his excellent movement skills should help him improve quickly defensively (in addition to a plus arm). Teel has put up a monster 2023. At the time of writing, he owns a .414/.480/.668 line with 11 home runs in 55 games. Tommy Troy Position: 2B, Age: 21, School: Stanford, Height: 5’10, Weight: 195, B/T: R/R, Rank: 12 Troy has been a riser on the consensus board since the beginning of the draft process. I don’t typically like player comps, but Troy and Brian Dozier are a really good fit. Troy has really good barrel control from the right side of the plate and lightning-quick hands help him produce solid power to all fields with good analytical numbers underlying his power. Troy does have some swing-and-miss to his game, though, and will expand the zone. In 2023, he’s taken a small step back with approach, chasing more and walking less as a result. Defensively, Troy profiles as a second baseman, with good quickness but choppy defensive actions and an average arm. Expect him to be a .270-ish hitter with 25-30 home runs as a pro. At the time of writing, Troy had a .404/.485/.717 line with 13 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Jacob Wilson Position: SS, Age: 21, School: Grand Canyon, Height: 6’3, Weight: 190, B/T: R/R, Rank: 13 Wilson is a prospect who has divided opinion thus far in the pre-draft process. On the plus side, it’s an excellent hit tool, led by outstanding bat-to-ball skills and solid line-drive power. On the other hand, Wilson doesn’t walk a ton, and hasn’t produced much in the way of home-run power to date, despite having the frame for it. Defensively, he has good actions and an average to above-average arm, but not a ton of lateral quickness. If he doesn’t stick at shortstop, he’s going to be a power-deficient third baseman or move to a corner outfield spot. Wilson will likely be a top-15 pick for an org that thinks they can coax more power into his swing. I have doubts about that, and the defensive home. At the time of writing, Wilson had a .423/.473/.659 line with 6 home runs on the year. Matt Shaw Position: SS, Age: 21, School: Maryland, Height: 5’11, Weight: 185, B/T: R/R, Rank: 15 Shaw has been floating around the teens of most draft boards throughout the pre-draft process, currently owning a tight cluster of rankings between 15th and 20th overall. Shaw is a solid-floored prospect due to the fact that he does a little bit of everything well. At the plate, it’s a slightly unconventional swing with a big leg kick to start out but it has a track record of results. Shaw has a track record of hitting in college and on the Cape, using all fields and possessing in-game power to all fields. He’s improved his approach in 2023, increasing his BB% and decreasing his K%. Defensively, he’s not a shortstop, although he has an above average arm and solid defensive actions. Given his solid all-round offensive profile, he’d provide the most value for a team at second base although he could stick at third also. In 2023 Shaw has put together a .359/.457/.743 line with 23 home runs and 17 stolen bases. He’s a legitimate offensive threat. Aidan Miller Position: 3B, Age: 19, School: Mitchell HS, FL, Height: 6’2, Weight: 210, B/T: R/R, Ranks: 16 Miller is the younger brother of Jackson Miller, a catching prospect drafted by the Reds in 2020. Miller is one of the most physical prep bats in the class, generating exceptional bat speed with a steep swing that generates plus raw power, although it hasn’t shown up a ton in games yet. Miller’s operation at the plate is quite noisy, a hand hitch and big leg kick are both present in his swing, but he has a sound approach and generates frequent hard contact. Defensively, Miller is very athletic and is already well filled-out for a 19 year old at 220lbs. If he maintains his athleticism, it’ll be a solid third base profile with the perfect offensive profile to match. If it he doesn’t, he could move to a corner outfield spot and still put up the offensive numbers to carry the position. Evaluators haven’t seen as much of Miller at the front end of this season as he had a broken hamate bone which caused him to miss time. As a result, Miller’s evaluations have a bit more range to them than some other prospects in this area of the draft board. All that said, he’s one of the best prep bats in the class and should go in the 12-25 range. Miller is committed to Arkansas. Also considered: Arjen Nimmala, SS (9), Blake Mitchell, C (19), Colin Houck, SS (21) Which of the players profiled do you like best as a fit for the Cubs? Is there anyone you’ve read about or watched who you think is missing? Draft speculation is the best speculation, so join the discussion in the comments. Image courtesy of © Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK View full article

The Cubs enter the 2023 MLB Draft with the 19th most money to spend ($8,962,000) They hold three top 100 picks (13, 68, and 81). 2023 is one of the deeper draft classes in recent years. Let's take a look at some of the prospects available to teams in July. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp The Cubs enter the 2023 MLB Draft with the 19th most money to spend ($8,962,000) They hold three top 100 picks (13, 68, and 81). 2023 is one of the deeper draft classes in recent years. Let's take a look at some of the prospects available to teams in July. How to Use This Tool This is hopefully easy to navigate. For a full explainer on the what, why, and how, here’s the explainer for V1. For each ranked player, you’ll see position, age, ranking, school, first name, last name, height, weight, handedness (S=switch), future value (not yet), and writeup. Every top 100 player has a writeup, if you hover over the report icon for that player, it’ll give you notes on players tools, strengths, areas of growth, and recent performance. What’s New for V2? Here’s some brief notes about V2 of the Consensus Board: The rankings are based on a consensus from 10 draft boards that provide a range of evaluations from well-known industry standard boards, to more data-driven boards. I DID NOT update writeups for the players who remained in the top 100 from the beginning of May. I’ll update them a final time on a rolling basis between June and July. I added ten more writeups for prospects who moved into the consensus top 100 since the beginning of May. If you see a prospect outside the top 100 with a writeup, it means they’ve fallen out (I’m not adding new reports outside the top 100). Finally, I color coded the top 75 players to track risers and fallers between V1 and V2. Specifically: Light green - moved up 5-9 spots Dark green - moved up 10+ spots Light red - moved down 5-9 spots Dark red - moved down 10+ spots What’s Next? The Consensus Board will get one more big update, to be published at the beginning of July. Additionally, there will be updates to the notes of the most significant prospects, accounting for their end of season performance (particularly for college players), in addition to future value grades added for prospects in the final version of the board. The final rankings will also be published as articles at all three sites. I recognize that some folks may prefer to consume rankings as an article, so I’ll publish them with write ups as part of a 2 or 3 part series in the final week leading up to the draft, working to get players highlights added to those pieces. If you have questions or feedback about the process or generation of the board, please use the comments. I want readers at all three sites to feel well-informed and excited about the draft and the influx of talent to their favorite teams. Whether it's an idea to make the rankings better, catching a mistake (I’m sure there are some), or a comment on who you want your team to draft, we’d love to hear from you. Jeremy Nygaard and I will be working to provide y’all with comprehensive draft coverage as July gets closer, so let’s chop it up! 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V2 View full article

We’re getting into the middle of May. As such, we’re also a few weeks away from the next Consensus Board update. Several major outlets (The Athletic, ESPN, MLB dot com among others) have updated their draft boards in the last 10 days. Here are some noticeable trends surrounding how the Consensus Board is shaping up ahead of the June update. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp We’re getting into the middle of May. As such, we’re also a few weeks away from the next Consensus Board update. Several major outlets (The Athletic, ESPN, MLB dot com among others) have updated their draft boards in the last 10 days. Here are some noticeable trends surrounding how the Consensus Board is shaping up ahead of the June update. As a reminder, here’s a link to the board that was published at the end of April. 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V1 A Consensus Top Five I’ve been tracking the draft boards since an initial Top 30 in February. With recent updates, it’s clear that there’s currently a consensus top five players, split into tiers. Dylan Crews is in a world by himself. He’s ranked number one by every board that I use for the Consensus Board. Wyatt Langford and Paul Skenes are two and three (although I think Skenes may go number two overall), followed by outfielders Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. Long the top prep player in the draft, Clark has recently been surpassed by Jenkins, with most outlets weighing a higher hit/power ceiling in Jenkins’ favor. College Bats on the Rise I’ve written for a while that this draft is well stocked with excellent college bats. That’s become more evident in the last month, with several surging up the Consensus Board. Here are some notes on a few favorites. Tommy Troy (2B Stanford) is up from 20th in February all the way to 13th currently. Troy is putting up a .669 SLG with an improved 13 BB% in the PAC 12. Kyle Teel (C, Virginia) was 22nd in March and is up to 12th overall, aided by a lack of top-end catching talent. Colton Ledbetter (OF Mississippi State) was 52nd overall in March and is now 29th. I think he’s firmly a first round talent, and he has the analytical profile to match. Jack Hurley (OF, Virginia Tech) is up from 38th in March to 25th currently One of the most aggressive hitters in the draft, he’s putting up a .781 SLG in the ACC. Chase Davis (OF, Arizona) is perhaps the most improved hitter in college baseball in 2023. He has moved up from 49th in March to 34th currently. He has cut his strikeouts from 28 K% to 16 K% with matching contact rate improvements and is crushing the ball. I think he'll continue to rise quickly up the rankings through May and June. I think he’ll go no later than the teens if he has a strong end to the season. College Pitchers Stock Falling College starting pitching has been disappointing, and a lot of it has fallen pretty sharply on the board. My current working board for June has 214 prospects on it. Outside the top handful of top college arms (Skenes, Hurston Waldrep, Rhett Lowder, Chase Dollander), there are five more college arms in the current Top 50. All except one have fallen in the past two months, mostly due to uneven production or uncertainties around health. There is still plenty of college arm talent available though, particularly for teams picking between 35 and 50 overall. Juaron Watts-Brown (RHP, Oklahoma State), Cade Kuehler (RHP, Campbell), Tanner Witt (RHP, Texas), Hunter Owen (LHP, Vanderbilt), and Will Sanders (RHP, South Carolina) are all in or around that range, with massive UCLA righty Alonzo Treadwell lurking just outside. Depth in the Top 50 There’s a great variety of prospects and prospect depth in the Top 50 this season. There’s something to fit your profile or flavor, pretty much regardless of what that might be. With the exception of catching, which is a position of weakness at the top end, you can land great talent throughout. Which prospects are you interested in your team targeting with their first round pick? In the top 50? Join the discussion in the comments below. View full article