Jamie Cameron

The 2025 ZiPS projections for the Cubs dropped last week. Let’s dive into three takeaways from FanGraphs’s prognostications and discuss the work the Cubs still have to do to cement themselves as NL Central favorites. Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-Imagn Images The 2025 ZiPS projections for the Cubs dropped last week. Let’s dive into three takeaways from FanGraphs’s prognostications and discuss the work the Cubs still have to do to cement themselves as NL Central favorites. Chicago has had an active offseason thus far. At the midpoint of winter, let’s see where they stand, so we can understand the stakes of their efforts to make more key moves. ZiPS is in Love With the Cubs Lineup ZiPS is bullish on the Cubs lineup, valuing the balance of bats and elite defense—resulting in a whopping 32.8 projected WAR just from the positional group, which really doesn’t have discernable weaknesses. The projections have benefited from swapping out Cody Bellinger for Kyle Tucker (duh). There are six different starters projected for an OPS+ of over 100 (Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, and Matt Shaw), with several also carrying great defensive projections. In addition to the splashy Tucker acquisition, the Cubs strength and depth have been augmented by the early portion of the offseason spent upgrading around the margins. There’s Pitching Work to do, Particularly in the Starting Rotation The pitching is a different story, particularly the rotation. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Matthew Boyd are carrying all the water here. There’s not much to write home about after those three. Having been linked to Luis Castillo, Jesús Lazardo and others this offseason, the Cubs need to finish their offseason work by acquiring a playoff-caliber starter and additional depth. With a strong farm system (the top of which is skewed toward the upper levels of the minors), trading for starting pitching help seems both the most likely route to filling that need, and the most logical. The bullpen needs reinforcements, too, with much of its projected value being tied up in risky arms such as Nate Pearson. With a relatively slow-moving relief pitching market this winter, upgrading the floor of the bullpen should be easy to accomplish via free agency. ZiPS Likes Matt Shaw to Replicate the ‘Michael Busch Effect’ in 2025 After trading away Isaac Paredes to the Astros, one of my questions about the Cubs' projections was how healthy their third-base projection would be. The answer to that is: ZiPS likes Shaw to be a good starter now, much like Busch was in 2024. A 16-home run, 18-steal season with a 100 OPS+, playing slightly below-average defense at third base feels about right, and is an outcome Cubs fans should sign up for, given the opportunity. If Shaw can land somewhere between that projection and his 80th percentile outcome (121 OPS+), he’ll be in the Rookie of the Year discussion in the NL. What do you make of the Cubs ZiPS projections? Where would you like to see them focus their remaining offseason energies and resources? View full article

JD Cameron gives a breakdown of Wilfry De La Cruz, one of the headliners of the Cubs forthcoming international prospect class View full video

The signing period for international amateur free agency has never been more widely trumpeted. Whether the Cubs land Roki Sasaki or not, though, they're going to bring in some noteworthy talent next week; let's learn about them all. The new IFA signing period begins on Jan. 15, barely a week from now. The Cubs are one of 12 teams that will have a lower-tier bonus pool of $6,261,600. The 2025 international signing period is unlike any in recent memory, with the decision of Roki Sasaki set to have significant ripple effects throughout baseball. While it seems smart to take the field when connecting the Cubs and Sasaki, whoever he signs with will likely leave several top prospects hanging without deals. While it’s normally fair to confidently assume teams will make good on their verbal agreements with prospects, this season, I’d approach the window with less certainty. Currently, Chicago has been closely tied to (and is expected to sign) three of the top 50 prospects, per MLB.com and Baseball America. 10. Juan Cabada, SS, Dominican Republic The Cubs have an interesting class this year, with one more highly-ranked prospect (per MLB Pipeline) signing a lower bonus and one lower-ranked prospect signing one of the larger bonuses in the class. Cabada is the former of those two prospects. Cabada is a left-handed-hitting, 16-year-old shortstop prospect. Operating from an open stance, he shows the ability to use all parts of the field for his line-drive power; his hit tool is far ahead of that power right now. Cabada has good supplementary tools to round out a strong overall profile. An above-average arm combines with smooth infield action to give him a good chance to stick at short. He has above-average speed, and is a threat on the basepaths. Cabada is expected to sign the 24th-largest bonus in the international free agent class, per Baseball America. He’ll likely sign for between $1.5-2 million. Should the Cubs sign Sasaki, he's one prospect who might attract a swarm of bidders and end up with even more money than he'll get if he and the Cubs do execute their expected contract. 13. Wilfry De La Cruz, SS, Dominican Republic De La Cruz is a switch-hitting 17-year-old shortstop prospect who offers one of the more excitingly projectable frames in the entire international class. Already standing 6-foot-3, he's a twitchy athlete whose swing looks better from the left side. Scouting reports have praised his strike-zone awareness, and it’s easy to dream on his current pull-side power turning into plus all-fields power in time. Defensively, the headline is a plus arm that will lend itself to shortstop or third base. He has smooth actions and a good internal clock. De La Cruz seems like a lock to stay on the left side of the infield. De La Cruz is expected to garner the 13th-highest bonus in this class, somewhere between $2 million and $3 million. NR. Juan Tomas, SS, Dominican Republic While Tomas isn’t ranked on the MLB Pipeline list, he’s in line to receive a top-50 bonus, and therefore worthy of discussion here as an up-arrow prospect. A 17-year-old, switch-hitting shortstop prospect with a powerful, projectable frame. he’s a wiry hitter with at least solid power from a swing that’s direct to the ball. Defensively, it’s just an average arm, but plus speed may eventually lend itself to a move to the outfield if he continues to grow. Tomas is expected to collect the 34th-largest bonus in this class. He’ll likely command between $1-2 million. The Cubs seem to be continuing a recent trend of inking one prospect to one of the larger bonuses in the prospect class, while spreading a good portion of the bonus pool around a few more prospects in the top 50. This new crop will undoubtedly be a fun follow in the 2025 season—assuming the team doesn't end up spending that money another way. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images View full article

JD Cameron gives a breakdown of Juan Cabada, one of the headliners of the Cubs forthcoming international prospect class View full video

The Cubs have added an MVP-caliber bat to their lineup in Kyle Tucker. What will he provide the Cubs with one year left before free agency and do they have any hope of extending him before next off-season? View full video

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. In episode 62 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie continue to reflect on an extremely busy and fun offseason. They break down the biggest signings and trades of the offseason in the last week, including Kyle Tucker being traded to the Cubs, Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, and the Brewers trading away bullpen ace Devin Williams. They then discuss the Ishbia brothers potential interest in purchasing the Minnesota Twins, including whether fans should view this as ‘good news’. The guys then review a very active Rule 5 Draft in which the Brewers, Cubs and Twins all took a player. They examine the skill set of each and try to predict whether they will stick on the MLB roster. Finally, they finish with listener questions on Eiberson Castellano and the Twins pool of catching prospects. 0:00 Intro 3:30 Kyle Tucker Trade 9:21 Cody Bellinger Trade 11:30 Cubs Next Move? 21:00 Ishbia Interested in Twins 25:38 Rule 5 Draft - Brewers Pick 31:30 Cubs Pick 35:42 Twins Pick 41:31 Listener Questions 56:35 Housekeeping You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

The Draft Lottery has come and gone and the Washington Nationals have clinched the number pick for 2025. Where did other teams land in the lottery and which team beat the odds to have the best move up for a selection? View full video

This week's crowd-sourcing question asks Twins, Brewers and Cubs fans; what is your dream offseason move? (realistic) and what’s a move (signing, trade, etc.) you’d be happy with? Hear what listeners had to say here. View full video

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. In episode 61 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie talk through an extremely active Winter Meetings. They break down the biggest signings and trades of the offseason so far, including Juan Soto to the Mets, Max Fried to the Yankees, Willy Adames to the Giants, and the Red Sox big trade to land Garrett Crochet. The guys then review a disappointing MLB Draft Lottery in which the Cubs, Red Sox, and Twins all moved down. They dig into the top 40 picks and bonus pools for each of those teams, before talking about some of the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the class. Finally they end with some listener questions. 0:00 Intro 3:00 Juan Soto to Mets 6:56 Max Fried to Yankees 9:28 Guardians making moves 13:47 Red Sox, White Sox deal 26:12 Adames to the Giants 26:59 Roki Sasaki posted 31:55 Draft Lottery 40:03 Draft Pools 44:40 Draft Overview 48:52 Listener Questions You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

The MLB Draft Lottery is in its third season at the Winter Meetings. Jamie answers all the questions on what the purpose behind it is as many baseball fans are still learning about the structure of it. View full video

Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo Draft tandem Jeremy Nygaard and JD Cameron team up for a podcast to discuss prospects on their way to the big leagues and the MLB draft, produced by Theo Tollefson. In episode 60 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie talk through some of the major signings of the MLB offseason so far. Should we be frustrated at the Dodgers for their accumulation of talent, or the 29 other teams for not spending more? Do we underestimate the value of back of the rotation pitching after deals inked by Matt Boyd and Frankie Montas. The guys then preview the forthcoming MLB Draft Lottery. They dig into the ‘why’ behind the lottery, how it works and the chances the Cubs and Twins have of moving up, staying put, or moving down. Finally they end with great answers to our crowdsourcing question of the week, in which we asked listeners to detail free agent signings or trades they want to see their team pull off in advance of 2025. 0:00 Intro 1:45 Blake Snell to the Dodgers 4:15 Boyd to the Cubs; Montas to the Mets 17:30 Draft Lottery Preview 19:23 What is the Purpose of the Lottery? 24:40 Do Teams Actually Move Up? 26:26 How Does it all work? 27:56 What are the Wrinkles? 34:40 What are the chances the Brewers, Cubs and Twins move up? 44:14 Reveal of Comp Picks at the Lottery too. 46:56 Crowdsourcing 55:43 Outro You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View full article

The 2025 MLB Draft Lottery is coming up at next week's Winter Meetings, on Dec. 10. Let’s dig into how the lottery works, the wrinkles for 2025, and the Cubs' chances of moving up. When is the Lottery? Tues., Dec. 10 at 5:30 PM ET. The 2025 MLB Draft Lottery will be broadcast live on MLB Network and can be streamed live on MLB.com. What is the Purpose of the Lottery? Introduced as part of the 2022 CBA ahead of the 2023 draft cycle, the first six picks of a given draft cycle are now determined by lottery, to discourage tanking and create some chance of a reward for a team who fought valiantly but missed the playoffs in a given season. Do Teams Actually Move Up? Famously, yes. The Twins jumped from an expected 13th to fifth in the inaugural Draft Lottery for the 2023 cycle, a move that allowed them to draft Walker Jenkins near the top of an exceptional class. In 2024, the Guardians jumped all the way to first overall, despite having just 2.0% odds of doing so. Their jump allowed them to select Travis Bazzana, in addition to stocking up on tons of prep talent with their bloated bonus pool. How does it work? Any team that didn’t make the postseason is eligible for the lottery, with odds decreasing for teams with superior win/loss records. The lottery is actually held in advance of the broadcast, which serves as a results show for a process completed by an independent auditor earlier the same day. Picks 1-6 are awarded in that order, by a draw that spits out ping-pong balls with a four-number combination that corresponds to a given team. The worse your 2024 record, the more number combinations you have in the draw. Picks 7-18 are in accordance with pre-lottery odds for non-playoff teams. Finally, playoff teams' order are determined by their elimination from postseason play (not their regular-season records). Picks awarded by the lottery are only adjusted for round one. The order for the rest of the rounds is in accordance with their regular-season record. What are the Wrinkles? The largest is the fact that there are teams who can’t pick inside the top 10 next year, as they are ineligible. Any payor club (read; large market) is ineligible to receive a lottery pick in two consecutive draft cycles. As such, the Chicago White Sox will pick 10th in 2025, despite a 41-121 record. Additionally, revenue sharing-receiving teams are ineligible to receive a lottery pick in three consecutive cycles. As such, the Oakland West Sacramento Athletics will pick 11th in 2025. The Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers will likely receive a 10-pick penalty, too, for being so deep into the luxury tax. Since all three made the postseason, though, none will have any impact on the outcome of the lottery. What are the Cubs' chances of Moving Up? I’m not going to lie to you: it’s extremely unlikely the Cubs move up in the draft order. You can find teams' current odds of landing the top pick listed below: 22.45 -- Rockies (.377) 22.45 -- Marlins (.383) 17.96 -- Angels (.389) 10.20 -- Nationals (.438) 7.48 -- Blue Jays (.457) 5.31 -- Pirates (.469) 3.67 -- Reds (.475) 2.45 -- Rangers (.481) 1.90 -- Giants (.494) 1.50 -- Rays (.494) 1.22 -- Red Sox (.500) 1.09 -- Twins (.506) 0.82 -- Cardinals (.512) 0.68 -- Cubs (.512) 0.53 -- Mariners (.525) 0.27 -- D-backs (.549) 0.0 -- White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick) 0.0 -- A’s (.426 – ineligible for lottery pick) Moving up has an outsized impact for payor clubs. Teams like the Cubs do not benefit from compensation picks in Compeititve-Balance Rounds A or B, which act as a cushion to ensure the financial flexibility of small-market teams. This limits their reach in the draft in terms of both picks and bonus pool. While the Cubs have only vanishing chances of getting the top pick, though, the ineligibility of two teams does slightly boost their hopes of getting one of the top six selections, instead of the 16th. However the lottery shakes out, it’s worth paying attention to. At the least, a team that moves from the middle of the first round to a lottery spot has a good chance to add a top-50 global prospect to their system. If the Cubs move up, we’ll have all the details here at North Side Baseball. Image courtesy of © Kyle Schwab-Imagn Images View full article

The Cubs have the majority of their lineup in the Majors locked in for the long term and top prospects Matt Shaw and Owen Cassie are just a few knocking on the door of the Big Leagues. For the Cubs prospects who are going to the Arizona Fall League, are they being offered up to scouts as trade options going into the off-season? View full video