Magnetic Curses

The coaches have to take some responsibility for the development. Sure, it's on the back end, but they still have to do something. when you have clines telling cedeno to "just be more aggressive" you aren't doing the kid any favors, clines needs to go soon. cedeno had at lkeast shown some kind of patience in the minors before getting to the big club. that said, i'd be okay with the cubs trading for izturis and dumping cedeno back to AAA--only if a guy like freel was brought ion at second. i'm not of the stone belief that an izturis-cedeno middle infield is the answer to the cubs' problems.

all the patience in the world is of little value (note I said little, not "no value") if it does not result in the player getting on base. whether generated through walks or hits, Anderson's OBP is still in Neifiland. Pie could come up right now and put up a .282/.332 line, and is 4-5 years younger. no, brian anderson is just 24 years old, roughly 3 years older, but hardly an old man. as for his obp not being high, i'm not talking about that. he's not going to be hitting .200 forever and has already showed that he has the discipline to post a high obp once he does start hitting better. it's called IsoD, and his is around .081, which would be 2nd highest on our team. jones doesn't need to be platooned, with the money he is being paid, it's unlikely hendry would allow a platoon anyway. he's doing well now, but he'll never do better, trade him while his value is high. what we need is big bat in right, then we can afford cedeno's rotten bat at short. what you are advocating results in two rotten bats in the lineup, so you need yet another big bat in the lineup, and proposing a trade that would never go down in order to achieve it. is there a better option in center? pierre? pie? anderson's LD% as TT has pointed out, would warrant a higher batting average and slugging percentage, it appears that he's getting unlucky. meanwhile, his BA is slowly coming up. i would wager that he'll be around .250/.340 by season's end. the a's do what they can with homegrown products and a payroll in the bottom half of the league--they can't afford a team full of great hitters in the prime of their careers. it's a miracle they're able to put a winning team on the field year after year--and a testament to the genius of their general manager. how have they "dabbled" (i hate that word, maybe one of the most annoying in the english language. it makes me think of a wasp pooping on a mud nest) in platooning jones? he's played in 87 of 94 games! he's been given rests against certain left handers, but he's hardly been involved in a platoon situation. who in the heck can the cubs acquire that would not want to start who can make a platoon with jones worth those kind of numbers? who? especially a player who's being paid 4-5 mil only to play against lefties? well, on second thought, that sounds like a hendry-type move.

The only problem I see with that study is that batting order affects so many managerial decisions that he can't account for. What reliever to bring in is affected by who is coming up. Do you intentionally walk somebody-Bonds is a perfect example of this for years. Where your pitcher hits and how many times he gets to sacrifice versus how many times he comes up where he has to hit makes a difference. All these, and many other things affect the game, and are directly related to batting order that a computer analyzing statistics cannot measure. the sample size in baseball is more than sufficient to measure accurately and account for a good number of different situations. if the situations are roughly even over the course of a season for every team, then there is really no problem measuring.

That's a beautiful thing. I've got Rich Hill and Sean Gallagher as the next two pitchers I can see contributing to a Cubs rotation for a good stretch of time. Its possible to lose Wood and Maddux next season and have a rotation of Zambrano, Prior, Hill, Marmol and Marshall with Gallagher on the cusp. But if the Cubs want to compete for a playoff berth, I would much prefer to see Zito added to that bunch with possibly one other veteran in the mix. How about Zambrano, Prior and Zito with Marmol, Hill, Marshall, Gallagher and a 5th starter quality veteran battling it out for the final two spots. I could live with that. 2007 may be a bit early for Sean, but then again, it may not... a rotation of: zambrano schmidt prior marmol hill would make me very happy. but they need to let hill pitch, like they've done with marshall. i think hill's much better than marshall and will make the better big leaguer anyway.

the bears were overlooked last year by the experts, who seemingly picked them to lose every week. bad predictions make me happy, because the experts know nothing about predicting football.

all the patience in the world is of little value (note I said little, not "no value") if it does not result in the player getting on base. whether generated through walks or hits, Anderson's OBP is still in Neifiland. Pie could come up right now and put up a .282/.332 line, and is 4-5 years younger. no, brian anderson is just 24 years old, roughly 3 years older, but hardly an old man. as for his obp not being high, i'm not talking about that. he's not going to be hitting .200 forever and has already showed that he has the discipline to post a high obp once he does start hitting better. it's called IsoD, and his is around .081, which would be 2nd highest on our team. jones doesn't need to be platooned, with the money he is being paid, it's unlikely hendry would allow a platoon anyway. he's doing well now, but he'll never do better, trade him while his value is high. what we need is big bat in right, then we can afford cedeno's rotten bat at short.

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard). How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though). Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58. You're right about that point. I was intentionally trying to do that to show how slugging can be just as important as OBP, which at the time I thought that the person was dismissing slugging as only a nice bonus if the person had a high OBP already. Freddy Sanchez vs. Ryan Howard is actually a very good battle. Like the numbers say, I would probably take Sanchez first (production of this year mind you, if I was projecting forward I would take Howard), because he has a high OBP and still hits lots of doubles. I think 8 Ryan Howard's would beat 8 Scott Hatteberg's. 8 Freddy Sanchez's and 8 Nick Johnson's would be a very close match-I would guess because of speed factors that Sanchez would beat Howard, and Howard would beat Johnson. Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup). If you're really trying to show that SLG is equally as important as OBP, how about you take a team of Bill Hall's (.310/.536 - on pace for 25-30 homers) and I'll take a team of Ichiro's (.398/.444) They have nearly identical OPS's (.836 for Hall; .832 for Ichiro). RC/27: Hall 5.55; Ichiro 7.76. Just making the point that OBP > SLG. Ideally you'd get both with every player. But as between the two, OBP is more important. Just look at Giambi and Dye. I won't post the numbers, but Dye is 1 point higher in OPS. Dye 20 points more in SLG; Giambi about 20 points more in OBP. Nearly equal in doubles and homers, Dye has more hits and much higher AVG, Giambi more walks. Giambi's RC/27 is .5 greater. UK has a good weighting system for OPS in which he accounts for the slight difference in importance between OBP and SLG. yes, OBP is slightly more important as not making outs is obviously more important than having the ability to drive the ball with more regularity. both are very important, and much more important than the ability to simply "just put the ball in play". as is the cubs motto.

no, the problem with this team is whatever steve stone says it is. this week it's defense up the middle (how about an izturis-cedeno combination? that would really make it impossible for anyone to get a hit). steve stone makes me want to puke. i used to think he was decent, now i realize he is just another antiquated analyst completely blind to the value of plate discipline. WHICH IS OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM! but stone would rather talk about clubhouse chemistry than walks or home runs.

Besides getting someone to play CF in a trade, what internal option is there? Pie is far from ready. He certainly isn't a good lead-off option. I would love for Hendry to improve upon Pierre in CF, but he may have to do so via the trade. Is there someone I'm not thinking of? in another thread i proposed brian anderson and josh fields for pierre and maddux. perhaps howry or eyre might have to be added.

we should sell jones while his value is high, it won't ever be any higher for the rest of his career, he cannot play better than he is playing now. get out from underneath that contract. but hendry has never been a guy to sell high, he reminds me of homer simpson waiting for pumpkins to mature, thinking they'll peak around christmas. or it could just be that he thinks getting jones makes him look smart, and he'll try to ride him into next year as a savior run-producer, which he is most certainly not. okay, i'll revise the trade: pierre and maddux to the white sox for brian anderson and josh fields. anderson has had a tough go of it so far, but he still is displaying the discipline that we so desperately need. pierre is very overvalued right now, his slap-hitting ways are for the moment successful, let's exploit that. that nets us a young third baseman and a young CFer. now, to find a place for aramis, jones, and marshall.

Why in the world would you do that? okay, how about russell branyan? Branyan strikes out way to much to be a everyday player No he doesn't, and he was advocating a bench role. Branyan played in 134 games in 02 and struckout 151 times in 378 AB. If he played 162 games he would strikeout about 180 times. Not to mention he has a career .232 average. Just what we need more guys who cannot hit the ball. He may hit the HR but im not sure if he is a guy I would want on my team. what are you talking about? we have a ton of guys that hit the ball, if you haven't noticed, cubs hitters don't strike out. that's part of the problem, not enough driving hittable pitches and too much slapping bad pitches. striking out a lot is acceptable if you drive the ball and get on base.

Why in the world would you do that? okay, how about russell branyan?

okay, i'll keep this long and sweet. greg maddux and juan pierre to the brewers for brady clark and corey koskie. brewers move hall to third as hardy comes back. juan pierre's speed is overvalued, moreso than brady clark's far superior plate discipline and OBP. clark's defense in center won't be bad enough to outweigh his offensive contributions. jacque jones, aramis ramirez, sean marshall, and whatever cash it takes to make the salaries a wash to the phillies for bobby abreu. yes, unrealistic, and abreu probably wouldn't okay a trade to the cubs unless he were convinced they were headed in the right direction, but this could be remedied by doing things to simply convince him. bobby howry and angel guzman to the reds for ryan freel. i'd do the trade if i were the reds. offseason- use the wood money to re-sign z. use the maddux money to sign jason schmidt. the team looks like this: CF- Brady Clark 2b- Ryan Freel 1b- Derrek Lee RF- Bobby Abreu C- Michael Barrett 3b- Corey Koskie LF- Matt Murton SS- Ronny Cedeno Yes, I know, Koskie is getting older but has always showed sufficient discipline at the plate. he's a complimentary player, who's decent defensively and offers a little pop. this team would be built in the cardinal-mold with the big three in the middle providing the offensive production and everyone else trying to get on base. murton can be allowed to play and grow in the seven spot, and this team could live with cedeno in the 8th spot-which still doesn't absolve him from learning how to hit at a major league level. cedeno will hurt us less with this lineup. as for starting pitching: zambrano schmidt prior marmol hill this provides us a big 3 at the top of the staff and 2 inexperienced but obviously talented pitchers in the 4th and 5th spots, which is where they belong. bullpen novoa wuertz eyre ohman rusch dempster no, not an awe-inspiring group, but good enough to get the job done. if the mood strikes and wood is up for it, replace wuertz's name with his. i won't speculate on the bench, but as long as dusty's gone next year, keep perez and use him appropriately in late-inning defensive roles and perhaps someone who can spell an infielder every once in a while. i advocate bringing mabry back as well--and bringing up theriot and fontenot. i think this team could win some games.

i'd rather trade ramirez and shift barrett to third.

No. I understand we want guys who get on base, and dejesus is a nice little player, but he's not worth three of our top young players. We don't have much left to trade after that. And what little we do have (Ryu, marmol, Hill) we might need to shore up our rotation. a CFer who can put up a +.800 OPS in his sleep is definitely worth a lot, and the royals know it. i'd do pie and marshall and see if that would get it done.

i haven't read through the whole thread, but i'd take brady clark straight up.

Remember before I say this that I like walks much better than Dusty seems to..but what if I came on the board last Sunday and said see...the Cubs took 0 walks, and scored 15 runs! It looks like they should keep preaching agressiveness. I would be roasted for looking at that one game as evidence, because the 2 stats are not well correlated. So it's silly to look at this game as evidence of the other side, however a help it might have been. except the stats are well correlated (that is obp and runs) i prefer to look at it as "not making outs".

Remember before I say this that I like walks much better than Dusty seems to..but what if I came on the board last Sunday and said see...the Cubs took 0 walks, and scored 15 runs! It looks like they should keep preaching agressiveness. I would be roasted for looking at that one game as evidence, because the 2 stats are not well correlated. So it's silly to look at this game as evidence of the other side, however a help it might have been. the thing is, we will be able to score 10+ runs more often if we continue to walk. teams that rely solely on having hot bats to score runs don't score very many at all, although they may have days when they score 10-15 because some BP pitcher is on the mound and keeps throwing first ball fastballs to guys that couldn't lay off their attractive cousin at a family reunion.

if we don't sign briggs things will get bad again.

I see people say this all the time on here. Just what is DLee and Aram? These guys have good OBP's, at least in good years they do. JJ has a decent OBP. So does Barrett. To make that argument that Jim doesn't value that statistic is lukewarm (though not a weak one). I just think it's unfair to criticize everything the guy does. He wants to win just as bad as we do. Someone help me here? it's not OBP, it's IsoD, which is the difference between BA and OBP. jones' is bad, cedeno's is bad, neifi's is bad, pierre's is somewhat bad. barrett's, ramirez's, murton's are average--DLee and walker's are good. hendry is by no means trying to find a market inconsistency with this.

On the Cubs it is..but not on the other teams. Even Dusty knows better. unfortunately, myths are very hard to let go of, especially when they've been taught to you all of your life. i don't know what to say, i'm sorry.

Is the hard to project part your opinion? Every scouting report I've read about him compare him to Duncan and David Robinson, and he'll be the consensus number one pick in whatever draft he decides to enter, barring serious injury. and tyson chandler was the next garnett, except without any coordination. there are other examples of high school big men being hard to project as well. to me, he looked flat-footed on offense and a bit plodding trying to run the court. he scored a lot of points from 5 feet and in, but so did thomas hamilton. i have no doubt he'll be the #1 overall pick-but i don't see how he can be projected as the next duncan or robinson without having played against college competition. sure he's played against the top players in the country in aau and tournaments, but most of those teams don't have people that are anywhwre close to his size. high school centers are so hard to place because any seven-footer will be dominant against some 6-4 catholic-school kid. So it's your opinion and it's based on you seeing Oden play twice. Thanks for clarifying. no problem, thanks for being sarcastic about me stating my opinion, which has been spelled out for you.

prior has been clocked at 95 several times in the latter innings. he's obviously pacing himself early. as for his curve and slider, i agree, he needs to touch them up a bit before next season.

it's statements like these that cause me to ignore whatever stone says about anything anymore. until cedeno learns that striking out is not the end of the world, he's going to be average, and izturis is absolutely terrible, just terrible. this team's problem is that it can't get on base or score runs and stone thinks it can be fixed by bringing in izturis? what stupidity, stone has lost his mind--even brenly offers more accurate insight into the game. stoney should stick to talking aboout how bad wood's mechanics are. Izturis is hardly terrible. He was an All-Star SS last year. When was the last time we had one?......I thought so. Stoney has said the Cubs need to make a number of deals with the thought 'does this make the Cubs closer to the World Series'. Even if Izturis is a placeholder for Eric Patterson for two years, he's an improvement over what we have. Hendry can probably move 10 players in the next month. I don't see one everyday player in our minor leagues ready to go. Do you? I know having Stoney puncture your Kerry Wood dreams is tough but deal with it. yep, izturis was so good that the dodgers threw a ton of money at furcal in the offseason. .265/.295/.338/.633 basic stats, but nothing i assume you'd know anything about. as for wood, well, an oft-injured wood is better than an always healthy rusch-type pitcher, which is really all that's out there.

Great post. very true, i've often thought the same thing. it's all the pitcher's fault, the batter does nothing to induce BB's.