Jehrico

There is probably no statistical data to back up my hunch, but I view Soriano in his walk year as equivalent to Adrian Beltre in his walk year. Beltre was fairly mediocre OBP wise with the bat for most of his career, had the huge year in free agency year, got the huge contract in free agency, and well, you know the rest... basically a bust w.r.t. to the dollar value. Maybe Soriano has had better numbers in his first 5 seasons, but I still can't fathom he'd live up to a 5 year $70M deal. Somebody will pay it, but if I were Hendry, I'd steer clear. Slightly OT, but I don't think we'll see anyone who we could compare to Beltre again in a very looong time. He was mediocre OBP wise, but looking at his age, how he was rushed, and the fact that he had that monster year power-wise that last year in LA, there's no good reason that explains his numbers drop in Seattle, which is MUCH friendlier to hitters than LA, which is perhaps one of the top two-or-three pitchers parks in the league.

I don't understand the love for Soriano. His numbers had went into a considerable decline the few years prior to this. His road splits in 2005 when he was still with Texas were about right on par for what I'd expect from Neifi :shock: . His 2004 road splits weren't that much better. His home splits were alright, but Tx is a notorious hitters park. His 3 year averages do not support a strong likelihood of him repeating the kind of offensive performance he put up this year. Yet, you know he's going to be paid solely on his 2006 stats, whoever ends up signing him. If he were still starting in the MIF, he'd be the worst defender in baseball. His defense was atrocious. Washington gave up quite a bit for him, and were willing to let him sit if he wouldn't play OF because he's so bad in the infield. Furthermore, barring us changing our organizational philosophy with regards to OBP and patience, you don't want a player like Soriano on our team. If he has any problems, it is that he is too much of a free swinger and thinks he can put up 50 jacks in a year. He'd be atrocious under someone with the same mentality as Dusty who would only encourage him more. Of course, this is only a detraction if they bring in another desciple from the Baker or Baylor school of hitting. Considering all of that, plus the fact he's already stated that he's determined to go back into the AL once he becomes a FA, I personally wouldn't think twice about it if Hendry doesn't even open up talks with his agent. If we get any interest from Soriano whatsoever, it will only be because he's using us to drive the price up on someone else.

Glendon is a DQP. Dempster is a trade (along with a big box of cash). Both are factored into the payroll total. I'd rather keep Dempster over the offseason. We'd be paying someone to buy low if we dumped him. I think he's struggling with his confidence, and I also think that with an offseason followed by a low-pressure ST, he'll work things out and get it back. I don't expect him to ever put up Billy Wagner type numbers as a closer, but he should be able to serve as an effective setup man at the worst. Then trade him next year when his value peaks a little.

fixed...

Given that Dusty "When I played, guys threw 350 innings and were still fresh for the playoffs" Baker is still our manager, it truly is amazing. Maybe he has learned at least a little bit this last year. Or maybe that's because Wood and Prior haven't been around enough to abuse.

He could be just as good if not better than Theriot and we are giving him a chance. I'd like to see them split time at 2B next year unlesss you are planning to make a big upgrade like Soriano. There's a few differences between Theriot and Fontenot. Theriot is still young enough to be considered a prospect, while Fontenot should have broke into the bigs already. Theriot is 6 months older than Fontenot. I thought he was 24? I guess I thought wrong...

He could be just as good if not better than Theriot and we are giving him a chance. I'd like to see them split time at 2B next year unlesss you are planning to make a big upgrade like Soriano. There's a few differences between Theriot and Fontenot. Theriot is still young enough to be considered a prospect, while Fontenot should have broke into the bigs already. Theriot has played well at the major league level thus far, while Fontenot (justly or not) has not had the opportunity. Theriot is also a product of Hendry's system, while Fontenot was an acquisition, so Jim may be a little more inclined to give Theriot a chance than Fontenot. None of those things are to say Fontenot is any more or less deserving, or better or worse than Theriot, just reasons that may come into play as to whether or not Fontenot really will have a chance next year.

I think Hendry having a 2 year deal is key here. He doesn't have to improve in '07. If the Trib still owns the team, and he keeps putting fans in seats in '07, and they turn it around in '08, he'll likely be renewed based on '08 without regards to '07. And something tells me they'll still approach 2.8 million plus in '07, which, coupled with a reduced payroll, will produce a similar net profit for the Trib. '08, I believe, is Hendry's make or break year with this organization. I really think 07 is his make it or break it year. MacPhail probably has a twinge of regret making Hendry's deal so early in the year, based on what then looked like a solid on-field product. There have been many a GM that have been canned mid-way through their contract, with the Cubs specifically canning Ed Lynch with time left on his contract. I If the team falls apart again next year, with a new manager and coaching staff no less, it all falls on Hendry's head. And I really think MacPhail won't hesitate to pull the plug after the last two seasons. That's possible. If he goes for it all in '07 and fails, then I certainly hope that's the case. Since we're already keeping him around for '07, if he takes the moderate approach and tries to build for '08, then I hope he isn't judged solely on Ws and Ls in '07, but rather or not he's put a solid foundation in place to really succeed in '08. If we don't make the postseason again by '08, then he needs to go either way.

I think Hendry having a 2 year deal is key here. He doesn't have to improve in '07. If the Trib still owns the team, and he keeps putting fans in seats in '07, and they turn it around in '08, he'll likely be renewed based on '08 without regards to '07. And something tells me they'll still approach 2.8 million plus in '07, which, coupled with a reduced payroll, will produce a similar net profit for the Trib. '08, I believe, is Hendry's make or break year with this organization.

In a roundabout way, signing Dusty might have actually kept us from getting free agents. He is/was getting paid $4 million, while guys managing for the first time usually get $400,000 to $600,000. Lloyd McClendon only got $300,000 when he signed with the Pirates. Could the Cubs have used an extra $3.5 million each year in 2003-2006? That's almost enough to pay for Neifi AND Mabry. :twisted: Salt in the wound....

Huh? Defensively. Strong up the middle defense. Offensively? We have another story. In other words, an area where we need help. Considering the Cubs have such a successful track record of developing position players to the major league Cub level, I'd rather pick up a FA IFer like we've always done. We've seen alot of these guys come up and no one stuck - not even Augie. I don't think that's sound justification to judge the guys we have in AAA now as failures-to-be and not give them a chance over guys like Neifi, Mabry, Lenny Harris, et al. That could also be due partially to how we have handled guys like Theriot and Fontenot in the past. We give the Bobby Hills and Hee Seop Chois all of the chances in the world, but we've never been good about giving chances to guys who ceilings are that of solid role players and not all-stars. I totally agree with giving the AAA's the opportunity, but we've gone so long without producing an everyday IFer from within the system. Management regimes have changed over the years but to no avail. Honestly, who is the last everyday IFer our system produced? Mark Grace (I can't think of anyone else, unless its the obvious I can't recall)? Thats a long time. I agree that our record for developing position players has been horrible, I just don't think that past failures should influence the decision making process when evaluating whether guys like Theriot are given a shot. He should be denied a shot if he's not good enough, not because guys before him have failed to pan out.

Most everyone seems to be for signing Soriano. I don't know if it's a good idea. His three year splits/trends before this season were not good, and his road splits while in Texas were atrocious (his road OPS was worse than Neifi's in '05!!!). He's going to be 31 next year, which means he's at the end of his prime. There's a very good chance his numbers this year are a fluke and won't be repeated next year. He'll likely still be good for an OPS that is at least close to .800 next year, but I have a feeling he's going to be paid like a 1.000 OPS player due to his ability to play an abhorrent 2nd base. There's big upside to bringing him in, but his performance isn't as sure a thing as many people seem to believe.

Beltran is a difference maker, instead we ended up with Burnitz. Hendry and his lack of foresight. I think there were things out of Hendry's control that contributed to us not getting Beltran. That said, one thing I'm tired of seeing with the Cubs (Not just Hendry, but his predecessors too) is the inability to go out and bring in the impact FA. The biggest FA I can recall us bringing in was Moises, and he was past his prime. I'd like to see us bring in an impact FA entering his prime one of these days. That's another thing that irritates me about Dusty...wasn't he supposed to be the manager these guys wanted to play for? Well, where are they?

dbl post...

I don't think there's any chance of going for the post season in '07. With that in mind, there's no reason to make moves solely for the purpose of being mediocre in '07 while handicapping our ability to succeed in '08. If you're not going for a championship in any given year, then make moves that get you to the championship as soon as possible. Never shoot for .500, never be content being mediocre, even if it is an improvement over your current situation.

Huh? Defensively. Strong up the middle defense. Offensively? We have another story. In other words, an area where we need help. Considering the Cubs have such a successful track record of developing position players to the major league Cub level, I'd rather pick up a FA IFer like we've always done. We've seen alot of these guys come up and no one stuck - not even Augie. I don't think that's sound justification to judge the guys we have in AAA now as failures-to-be and not give them a chance over guys like Neifi, Mabry, Lenny Harris, et al. That could also be due partially to how we have handled guys like Theriot and Fontenot in the past. We give the Bobby Hills and Hee Seop Chois all of the chances in the world, but we've never been good about giving chances to guys who ceilings are that of solid role players and not all-stars.

yeah, how about signing the starters before you spend all your money on a veteran bench. What a novel concept!

Ditto, all around I think...

I don't see Fontenot as starter material at the major league level (I'd like to eat crow on this one, but I don't see it). I would, however, much prefer him to some overpriced mediocre vet off of the bench next year (obvious example, Neifi).

Nice seeing abuck's old friend, CubfaninCA posting on BCB. The comments under it are even more comical. It's always fun seeing how those who have been banned get so upset later. CubfaninCAs argument was pretty weak as well. Bruce advocated getting Giles because of his propensity of high OBP based on his walk rate, a trait that doesn't decline near as rapidly as power, and not because of his power. Also, he suggested Soriano was cheap last offseason. I don't think everyone would agree that BWilk and the others given up was exactly a "cheap" price to pay for him. I never realized he was banned though. He does reke of biased animosity for this site now.

Sorry Bruce, but I'm going to depart from the masses on my opinion of this article. I generally love your articles, but I thought this the worst piece of work I've ever read from you. It's easy to observe from outside and sharpshoot someone (like I'm doing now, yeah, I know, I'm a hypocrite). You didn't offer any answers, any insight as to why those questions exist, or how they're hurting the club going into the offseason, or what should have been done to prevent any of them. Granted, since I'm an avid reader of yours, I know you've addressed these things in the past, but as a stand-alone article possibly being read by someone who is not familiar with your work, the article really didn't serve much of a purpose other than to say "The Cubs have alot of issues" which should be common sense just by looking at their payroll and their record at the moment. I thought it was an empty, pointless article despite the fact that I share the same view on almost all of those points. Again, I love your articles, just didn't care for this one. Maybe you are human for a journalist after all :wink:

I still want him to work on his footwork at second this off season and give that a shot. If he could hold his own there I think he'd be a solid bat to have up the middle. He can't be any worse than Walker was there. Should Theriot be given a chance to earn a job there as well next year? What if both do well during ST? Having 2 guys that deserve to be on the big team at the minimum wage is a good thing as far as I'm concerned. A good manager would find enough AB's for both IMO. Therein lied (one of) our problems this year. I'm fervently hoping that is fixed going into '07.

You consider my logic wrong probably because part of you still believes in Hendry and the Hendry philosophy. Did you even read more than the first couple lines in my original post earlier, or do you just select bits and pieces that give you something to attack? You consider that an attack yet you are the one that says "your philosophy is just wrong" You don't know if my philosophy is wrong. It may be it may be not. I don't think its too much of a stretch to say this team would be alot better today if it had Furcal at SS, and Nolasco in the rotation. I didn't say your philosophy is wrong, I said your logic is wrong (your logic is it's okay to overpay for player A because it's better than overpaying for player B. My logic is they're both wrong). I supported why I thought that. It's my opinion, and if you can't handle opinions, you shouldn't be on here. No one should have to preface their opinions with "It is my opinion" or something like that when it's a topic that is obviously based on opinion. Some people are so paranoid about other interpreting them as quoting fact that they put a disclaimer on most of thier posts. It's unneeded, ridiculous, and I refuse to do it. You're the one that came out and suggested that I believe in Hendry and the Hendry philosphy, despite the fact that in my first post in this thread I CLEARLY stated that was my number one problem with him. Hence, I accuse you of not reading the whole post and picking bits and pieces that suit you to attack others.

You consider my logic wrong probably because part of you still believes in Hendry and the Hendry philosophy. Did you even read more than the first couple lines in my original post earlier, or do you just select bits and pieces that give you something to attack? The first fault of his that I cited (and bolded, and referred to three more times after that) was his failure to implement a sound organizational philosophy. I never once supported signing anyone along the lines of Burnitz, Jones, or anyone like that, you're making crap up out of thin air to slander me now. Overpaying for overrated players simply because it's not the worst option is not a sound philosophy. Overpaying for good players is obviously better than overpaying for bad players, but that doesn't make it a good way of doing business.

Then turned around and gave near 7 million in combined contracts to Neifi and Rusch. Is Furcal overpaid yes. But he could have overpaid for Furcal and locked up the leadoff position for a few years, and kept 2 good arms. Instead he took the money he saved on Furcal and flushed it down the toilet. Now it appears they are going try to re-sign Pierre who will command a contract near that of Furcal plus they will need to spend money on another starter for the rotation. If they still had Nolasco he could have filled this roll at a bargain price. Hendry only thinks 1 move at a time. He would lose to a 2nd grader in a game of chess. If you noticed, I did include that paying what he paid for Rusch and Neifi as a failure. Regardless, your logic is wrong. Two wrongs don't make a right. Not signing Rusch and Neifi and using that money to overpay for someone else doesn't make that a good move either. It wouldn't have been as bad going for Pierre and overpaying Glendon and Neifi, but it still would have been a bad move. Choosing the lesser of two evils when there are other options isn't a good move.