neely crenshaw
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Everything posted by neely crenshaw
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jesus south side, have you looked at his stats? just because I don't mention by name every stats, doesn't mean they aren't there. I just take for granted someone in a discussion might look at them instead of just say WRONG i would say his 6 years career batting average of .233 with none higher than 259 is a good indicator his home run totals of 10, 25, 18, and 0 are too. his never having gotten 100 hits in a season is another never having 20 doubles in a season is another with a career obp of .320, a career ops of .740 all in colorado, history tells me there's a pretty good chance the stats will go down outside of colorado. it also tells me that the high end of his possibilities would be hitting 233, with 15-20 hrs, 320 obp, with a .700 ops and there is a better than average chance they'll be lower here.
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nuts and gum, outside of the steroid era, how often has this ever happened? especially when you are coming from colorado. san diego? you may have a point but historically , you have to admit the norm is that your stats go up when you go to colorado and drop when you leave. It's all possible, but I simply tried to state why I think it's probably not going to happen! heck, Kurt Warner made it to a potential HoF qb from the arena league but that doesn't mean I'm grabbing the next Iowa barnstormers qb and planning on him doing the same. truthfully, with this team I would rather watch stewart play hard every day and hit 220, than watch rameriz hit 300. with 30 bombs but loaf. his (rameriz) stats might win us 5 games but add years of frustration to our lives
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never said he was the problem, nor did i ask to replace him. simply said he's not unlucky over 6 seasons and was attacked by posters who felt differently and want to talk down to anyone who dares questions their "greatness"!
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When his luck normalizes what line can I expect? I'm too lazy to check and I think a lot of people here know anyway so I don't mind asking. I do think they should fix the OF and pitching before 3B since Stewart has some shot to be a decent role player in a more talented lineup. he's hit .233 over SIX SEASONS. his best is 259. all of this in the best hitters park in baseball. you know what that tells me? He's a .233 or below hitter! unless he juices or sells his soul a'la joe hardy (ask your dad about that reference) unless he can play multiple infield positions or outfield-which I am not sure he can, I don;t know how he would be useful to a serious contender
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good thing stewart made it to the majors before bad luck hit, heck if it took 2-3 years to straighten out down there he probably would been released... you guys are great 3 seasons to even out "luck" other than nintendo have you ever played?
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well much like our early discussion of ops over the first 14 games and how when it got back to normal our offense would be better. where I was ridiculed for being in 1980. our OPS went from 604 to 680 and our average runs fell from 3.5 to 3.0- yep you guys are right OPS is an important to look at over 14 games this will also pan out in my "toddler" ways. perhaps you guys should watch a few years of baseball and get back to me. really. you think 2 to 3 seasons is what it takes to even out luck? silly. no what's silly is that stewart isn't a good hitter. he hit in the best hitter's park his entire career and was poor. a .233 hitter is a .233 hitter. bad luck? no what you need to look at is the opposite, his career babip is pumped way up by his all time best year, where he hit 259 but it took an ungodly babip rate of .370 which is what matt kemp had last year in a nearly freakin' triple crown season. he needed that to hit .259. to me that screams "luck". he hits a ton of weak, soft hits. which is why his babip stays low. truth is even if he hits like he has in may, it's not good. 246 .338 .456 .795 you know who he is at that rate? gordan beckham career=.245 .314 .383 .697 and thats during stewart's hot streak! seriously- we have no one better I know. "IF" he did that for a season, exactly what 3b starters is he better than? you think it shows his serviceable? and getting better? more likely he had a slight hot streak for a few games(his extra base hits are spread over 5 games of 18 in May) and just like brandon inge it gave him a spike. I don't dislike him, I don't want him to fail but you are guys are running me down, calling me a toddler when outside of 18 games in may, there simply aren't any stats that point to what you say is going to happen, and there is a ton that's says I'll be right. again we will see, but my advice would be to maybe watch the games and see what happens instead of attacking someone's posts. as i said a long time ago, time will tell but don't think i won't say i told you so.
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Dale Sveum to re arrange the deck chairs
neely crenshaw replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
never said most of that. never said DeJesus is blocking anyone never said Barney should lead off never said .444 was the drop off never said stewart should be replaced my main question, is if we are re-arranging "the deck chairs" why not re arrange them. I asked why did barney get dropped to 8th, when he is clearly not the worst performing hitter. I said, and feel that barney has a much better chance to improve as a major league hitter as opposed to dejesus who is 32, and on what seems to be a downward trend. Barney and Campana may not work out at all, but when we are looking losing 100 games, why not find out. while stewart is having his "hot month", barney the 8th hitter's last month has raised his line for the season to .273 .322 .396 .718 you guys want to throw out stats for a month, or 40 games which are nice but don't mean they are the trend or will stay that way. young guys have a chance to improve with experience. old guys, not so much. you can not look ay 10 year vets stats and think they will reach their career averages, if you do then you think that it's a good bet that soriano to hit .274 with 35 hrs 503 slugging and 826 ops even though he hasn't reached those levels in 5 seasons. for the record..dejesus last 4 full seasons obp= .351, .366, .347, .323 his upswing was the 1 year he hit over .300. which out of 7 full seasons would seem like the anomaly not part of the trend. I didn't just look at last year and his first year, like it seems some of you did. bottom line: with this team, how many more games will we win with dejesus leading off over campana or barney? i'll be nice and say 5, but truly it might not be any. heck if it was 10, where exactly does that put us? we are a ways from contending. say we are ready in 2 more years. Dejesus will be 35. What type of player will he be? will he be here? is there a better chance that barney and or campana are still playing and relevant somewhere? has to be the case. look at pitching dempster is far better than volstad or wood, but is there a better chance that they could still contribute in 2014 or dempster? so it makes sense to trot them out there as much as possible simply because they could improve, and chances are dempster will digress and not be here. aIf your thinking about sheer value to the team this year, dempster is much more valuable but most still think he's going to be traded this year..why is that different? -
brandon Inge's stats for May .239 .308 .565 .873 I guess he is good again too. not too mention he has 7 extra basehits, 4 hrs and 17 rbi compared to stewart's 6, 3 and 5. heck, if stewart can keep this up all season he's on pace for 45 rbi you guys are awesome with your clips for 20 at bats showing how good everyone will be!
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just horrible luck for stewart tonight. 3 balls in play, and some how none of them found a hole. the astros showed a lot of heart getting in front of those balls, I mean they have wives and kids at home...
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so in your minds with his awesome May of .246 .338 .456 .795 he is a good third baseman? you want stats? his best year ever= 18hrs .256 .338 .443 .781 in COLORADO. other years? .228 .322 .464 .785 or .156 .243 .221 .464 i'm sure that was just bad luck. When a guy has a 6 season batting average of .233, he's not unlucky, he's a .233 hitter. and that's with home games at colorado. another stat= coors was the top offensive park in 2009 and 2010, 2nd in 2011, 3rd in 2007 and 2008. another in his hot May..we are about to be 7-11. His huge bump in OPS is due to....3 2bs and 3 hrs in 18 games. he had extra base hits in 5 games. he had 3 rbi with those extra basehits, all solo hr's. he has 5 total rbi over the "hot" May in his games with extra base hits, the cubs won by a total of 22-6. his 3 rbi helped how much? the best part of his stats for May is his OPS but OPS is the worst stat to look at over a short time. If he hits 1 less homerun, his OPS(and slugging for that matter) drops 75-80 points. because of 1 hit over almost a month. It's just not a good stat unless you are looking at a large sample size.
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Dale Sveum to re arrange the deck chairs
neely crenshaw replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
For you mr stat guy. This years stats. If you even out the plate appearances, Dejesus has gotten on base 4.5 times more than Barney over 41 games. so 1.1 every 10 games? so you are just sure that he wont' fade at all, or barney won't improve. seriously you are looking at the future and you think 1.1 times on base in 10 games is a huge difference in stats? this is such a huge difference at this point that 1 game could bring them even. after his 0-2 start tonight..he now leads by 35 points...an 0-4 would bring him under .350. -
Dale Sveum to re arrange the deck chairs
neely crenshaw replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
no it's stupid that you either can't read or you read what someone else responds and run down a post that you clearly didn't fully read. Nowhere did I say that Barney should replace DeJesus in the leadoff spot. I simply wonder why someone with very similar stats is dropped, sits for dewiite, who is gone, and cardenas who was released by the A's. while stewart and Dejesus are sent out everyday regardless of performance. I did say that perhaps Campana should get a chance at lead off. For this season his obp is the same as Dejesus now to defend my point, yes, dejesus has a 40 point lead SO FAR. last year he had a 10 point lead over the course of the season. the nice thing about basbeall is that it is entirely possible that stats will actually change during a year. Likelyhood of a 11 year vet jumping his stats for an entire season is not likely. Dejesus' OBP has consistently gone done in each full season, whi h seems to say he is trending down away from that .444 obp he had 10 years ago. Barney has 1 year. He should/could continue to improve, which would give him a chance to still be here and contribute in 2 seasons. I don't see that with a 35 year old dejesus. and again you guys are getting all worked up over a stat that in a short range doesnt' hold the same weight as for a full season. Yes, dejesus has a 40 point better obp. do you know what that the difference actually is right now? Barney gets on base roughly 20.5 times in 65 at bats. Dejesus gets on 22.8 times in 65 at bats. So you are worked up over a 32 year old player that so far is getting on base about 2 more times every 20 games. again my point is why not evaluate the 26year olds and see what they have, instead of hanging on to a 32 year old that probably won't continue to perform at that rate this year but surely not in the next few. -
Dale Sveum to re arrange the deck chairs
neely crenshaw replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Dejesus is easily a better hitter? really. Barney hit better last year. they are the same right now. DeJesus is 32 and very possibly trending down. Barney is 26 and at least has a chance to continue to improve. seriously your going to use "career" on base percentage to decide trends when comparing an 11 year vet and a 2nd year guy? how about last year dejesus had on obp of .323 and barney .313, or that in 131 games DeJesus was on base 151 times, and in 143 barney was on base 168 times. Hey but Dejesus had a .444 obp 10 years ago so he must be that same player now! As for Dewitte. I guess if you aren't with the team, the games you started don't count? again the overly intelligent poster miss the point. We aren't going anywhere. and the management is tweaking a few spots as needed but I realize it's more about seeing what everyone has. That being said, They brought in DeJesus, Stewart, Volstad, and others. They seem to have gotten every chance, and are still getting them. Why are we stuck on a 32 year old 270 hitter, who is not going to improve. We have Campana, who evidently is not a proto-typical lead-off man because there is no such thing, but is hitting over .300 and has the 360 obp, an a history of those stats coming up. He is also 26, and could continue to improve also. he runs like crazy, steals bases and despite your thoughts on a team that averages 3 runs a game, has no power on 2 other hitters hitting over .300 and is hitting .234 with RISP as a team. So every chance of getting to 2nd base counts. Not saying anyone is better or even if it matters. But why not find out if campana could be that lead off guy. Why continue to try others at 2nd, and push down Barney rather than Stewart or DeJesus. Honestly, if Lahair was hitting .205 would he still be in the lineup? Again would samardjiza? it just seems like a trend that could be counter productive. All baseball people miss a lot of the time, In this year of evaluation, we have a pretty good idea what dejesus and stewart are going to be at even their best. If Barney and Campana are producing why not find out if they are for real? and getting a great deal on someone is fine but shouldn't be the reason we stick with them through thick and thin. -
you see what you want to see. Time will tell, it will be difficult to blame bad luck after 500 at bats. Regardless at his very,very best he is mediocre. On this team he's fine. I like his toughness, I like his grit. There is no denying he cares, he plays hard and seems like a good team mate. There is a lot to like about him but don't confuse that with being good. He can not be the 3rd baseman on your team if you plan on being a serious contender.
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Dale Sveum to re arrange the deck chairs
neely crenshaw replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
do you know anything about him? or just guessing? He was the Phillies first round pick in 2006, and has been traded by the Phillies and released by the A's before the cubs claimed him. This is the first trip to the majors for him. So I am saying that a 24 year old former 1st round pick, who as a top prospect at 1 time, is a retread, when a team so bad on offense like the A's can't use at AAA or the majors. I mean can see that a team that has an OPS 50 points lower than the cubs can't use a quality player. When you their 2b hitting a robust .233, and your 3b is hitting .133 or your LF is crushing it at .194..of course there's no reason to keep a former high pick in AAA, or heck on your roster because you have so many good options there. No reason at all to think the guy can't play. But then again our roster is a bit of a AA/AAA look to it. -
Dale Sveum to re arrange the deck chairs
neely crenshaw replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'll type slowly so you can understand. "LIKE" Cardenas not only Cardenas. Dewitte has started 3 times in the last 18 games, Cardenas twice at 2b (not once) and once in left. Dejesus and Stewart have started 16 of those same 18 games and neither has been demoted to 8th like Barney has. Barney and Dejesus have basically the same stats. EXCEPT DeJesus our leadoff guy is 0-4 in stolen bases and Barney is 1 for 1. Barney is hitting .273, has 38 hits, 10 doubles,2 triples, 1 home run, 9 rbi. DeJesus is hitting .276, has 40 hits, 10 doubles, 2 triples, 1 home run, 9 rbi When Barney was demoted, he had scored 10 runs, DeJesus 13. DeJesus has more walks, but as I said they were basically the same last season. I did not try to say that barney should lead off. My only thought is why would they dump Barney, but continue to run Dejesus out there when they are both performing the same? and to me I don't know how much more the same you can get than those stats. If we were going to change something when Campana came up, why not put him at lead off. He is a true lead off guy. He is hitting better, and has the same obp as Dejesus and there is NO comparison in the speed factor. DeJesus will not be here for the long term. Campana might. If he does it would be as a lead off guy, or 8 hole hitter before a 2 hole guy. It might not hurt to have Dejesus in after Lahair and castro, where a single might actually score someone. -
Dale Sveum to re arrange the deck chairs
neely crenshaw replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
My only qualm with the organization so far is that it sure seems that anyone who is one of the "organizations guys" get every chance to succeed while leftovers are looked to be moved out. I doubt seriously that if Samardjiza had pitched like volstad he would have gotten as many starts as volstad did. for whatever reason they seem hell-bent on moving barney out. They dropped him to 8th, they continue to send in retreads like cardenas to play, while their guys..like dejesus and stewart are in every single day. Barney's stats are identical to dejesus' except that he has a stolen base and dejesus has struck out 28 times (1 fewer than stewart and soriano) not very lead off like. dejesus has a few more walks so far BUT their obp was identical last year. their guys is the lead off hitter, despite being ill equipped to do the job. Barney bats 8th and they only guy that is any semblence of a lead off guy is campana, and he is stuck in at 2, where barney is more suited. -
luck has a way to sort itself out in 150 at bats. He may have a LD% but he also hits a lot of very soft line drives that will never be hits. He has hit some shots but it's very doubtful he goes above .220 for the season. Everyone despises Soriano, yet all of his stats are better, much better usually than stewart's. We can hope but really IF he hits the rest of the season like his warm up may, do we really want a 3B that hits .267 with a sub .700 OPS and 140 k's. He's only a stop gap, and at his best, he's maybe mediocre. The only 3B worse is Morrell. Not that fantasy is the best judge but he is the 759th ranked statistical 3b. Of course does not include D. what 3b would you not trade him for if it's was just for this season and money didn't matter? morrell...and? he won't be here long, we might as well start seeing who might be available in the next 2-3 years because not sure anyone is close and that discussion would be more beneficial than praying stewart gets some luck.
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Sveum - Rizzo call up to be discussed soon
neely crenshaw replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
This is administration is not supposed to make moves because "people" want to see someone. It is better for this team if he stays down until his date is past. if he is barry bonds in his juiced up prime, our offense would go from horrid to bad. We can certainly find out if he can play in the last 80-90 games, as much as the last 120. My only thought is where does he play? where does Lahair play? we have to get some more pop at some time, and left field-although much improved defensively, is hardly a spot where we would hurt ourselves with an inexperienced OF'er. the cubs simply can not put out a team where there outfielders hit less than 5 hrs. and our c,2nd, 3rd and ss hit 10. -
why is this important? and to whom..the fanbase? it's certainly not any more important to the players or organization. The Sox are bad, we are just worse.They have 4-5 major league hitters we have 2-3. They have 2 solid starters and a young possible good starter, we have about the same. they have a young up and coming bullpen that is unproven but has lot's of promise, we have a young bullpen that has very little promise. I fear that dempster is becoming dempster, which is a solid but not great starter and that Maholm may really, really struggle as the weather warms up and wind blows out. He did not pitch horrid, but the sox O is bad, and with our lack of offense 4 runs is almost insurmountable on most days. It is becoming a very long, long season. It's hard to simply watch the possible future players and hope they develop. I am praying that Samardjiza is for real, and that wood comes through, because there is little else for pitching anywhere close. Also hoping that LaHair remains a major league hitter, and can add in with castro. Then we wait for rizzo.
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5/3 Cubs (Dempster) @ Reds (Bailey) 11:35 AM CSN
neely crenshaw replied to David's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
whoa...our starting pitching has been great BUT: Dempster and Garza may very well be gone by July leaving Wood, Volstad and Wells in the rotation. Dempster is 3 full runs per game below his career ERA and 3.50 below last years..he won't keep dealing at a 1.33 rate Garza is a full run below his career average If Marmol doesn't close, who does? Anyone on this roster will blow more than their share of saves. With our in consistent offense we might very well lose more of our well pitched games than we win. for the record with all our "improved" play and seeming jumping in our OPS. In may with our power outbreak we have scored 3 runs a game, and over the last 12...we averaged 3.50, of course the problem is that over our first 13-when we sucked- we averaged 3.53 -
5/3 Cubs (Dempster) @ Reds (Bailey) 11:35 AM CSN
neely crenshaw replied to David's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
the team is going no where and you have to stop thinking that "if" something just went a certain way they would be in the thick of it. The way we played the last 2 weeks is the best they possible can. You do not play your best for 162 games ever.We will return to the 3-11 cubs at some point, and then to the 6-5 variety, on our way to losing between 90 and 100+ games. The bad part is Dempster didn't get a win that he deserved but in the long run as long as he pitches anywhere near this or his normal "good" he's traded by deadline for something in the future. The only negative is that Marmol needs to look like a closer so that one of the many teams that have already lost a closer, will want him...He won't be here, even if he puts up numbers like 2 years ago because they do not value the closer role to the point of dropping the dollars that it will take to sign a high end closer("high end" if he rebounds). There is really no reason to not use he and wood in the 8 -9 roles because no one on this roster can do it. (please do not say Camp) If they suck, we maybe blow 5 more games than the rest of this bullpen would at worst...the sad part is they still may be better than the rest. When you are looking at having 1 of the 4 worst records in baseball, does it really matter who closes? Take a chance that they will perform so we can drop them on someone else and get even a fungo, and 3 dozen pearls. Simply rejoice that LaHair could be real, Castro is still going, samardzija may have something, and ,maybe just maybe Barney and Campagna can be real major leaguers because this season is about finding how who can play, and hoping to trade anyone of value to get more guys who might be able play. This is already better than I thought, because I figured by now we'd have Castro and be waiting to see if Jackson and Rizzo can play.

