SoonerCubFan

Well, I laid out my reasons how it would be quite beneficial to all concerned. Smoltz gained a lot from his switch, as did his team. I have no illusions that the Cubs would be as savvy as the Braves, but it could certainly work. Hey, I was Kerry's biggest defender on other Cubs' message boards back in the day. If I thought for one minute he could get back to his 2003 form and keep it, I'd be just as adamant that he follow that course. But, after watching him throw about 8-10 MPH slower now just to preserve his arm for 80+ pitches, I have serious doubts he'll ever get back there, at least not for a while, and slowly building back in the bullpen has worked for other starters. I'm sure we'll continue to disagree, and I'm sure the Cubs will follow the worst possible path that will either get him hurt again or will get him primed to have a great career somewhere else.

Kerry needs to build up arm strength. He wouldn't be able to properly rehab while coming in for relief. And they really have no need for him in the bullpen. I don't see this as true on a couple of fronts. For one, it seems very likely that he simply will never be able to handle the stresses of starting this year, if ever. Second, there are examples where teams used starters out of the pen for a whole year (Matt Morris in 2000) for the exact purpose of slowly building up arm strength. This seems like such a no brainer to me, especially the way his arm responded to the pen last year. It's his only hope of salvaging a career, with the possibility that he could become a dominant pitcher again - just in a different and equally important role. To me, if we can't have the power arm of 1998-2003, he's not worth pursuing any more as he's not going to be a finesse pitcher. The bullpen is the only way. What is there to suggest that he likely won't be able to start this year or for the rest of his career? Irregular usage patterns by a manager who has no idea how to handle a bullpen aren't going to help Wood, nor will pitching out of the bullpen help his next contract. The Cubs don't have a use for him in the bullpen and can much better help him fully rehab on the side and on a minor league rehab assignment. As for the starting part, his performance over the past 2 years seems pretty convincing, as he continually breaks down after a certain threshold of pitches/outings. As for his use in the pen, I agree with the concern of how they'd use him. But in the offseason when I was all for him in the pen for 2006, I laid out a plan where they'd have him on a scheduled inning or two every game that Maddux pitches. Maddux never finishes a game, and the contrast in pitching style would be tough on the opponents. Depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out, you could do the same for another starter so that he gets regularly scheduled work a couple of days a week, along with endurance-building side sessions. He could start warming up several minutes ahead of time just as he would for a start. I have zero confidence DB or LR would follow such a plan, but it seems doable to me on all fronts - just as the Cards did with Morris. Also, after watching Dempster this year, I see a very valid role for him to work towards if his arm responds to the pen as well as it did last year. I again opine that he has a better future of potential dominance as a closer than as a starter. There is a precedence after all. As for his next contract, he and his agent may view the way you state, but he's also one more injury away from little value as a starter as is. If he wants to remian a Cub, I'd do my best to convince him to take his firebrand attitude to the closer role with the idea that this is the one way he could get his overpowering stuff back, and in a role he could fill on a cold October night.

Kerry needs to build up arm strength. He wouldn't be able to properly rehab while coming in for relief. And they really have no need for him in the bullpen. I don't see this as true on a couple of fronts. For one, it seems very likely that he simply will never be able to handle the stresses of starting this year, if ever. Second, there are examples where teams used starters out of the pen for a whole year (Matt Morris in 2000) for the exact purpose of slowly building up arm strength. This seems like such a no brainer to me, especially the way his arm responded to the pen last year. It's his only hope of salvaging a career, with the possibility that he could become a dominant pitcher again - just in a different and equally important role. To me, if we can't have the power arm of 1998-2003, he's not worth pursuing any more as he's not going to be a finesse pitcher. The bullpen is the only way.

Honestly I don't even care if the Cubs are a top spender. That's not the only way to get it done. I look over at the Cards and they have a much lower payroll, less-than-stellar minor leagues to draw from, yet they're doing pretty darn good year in and year out. How does that work, exactly? I know one thing, it doesn't work if you didn't hire a decent GM. It's really not about the money, if I may toss around a sports cliche'. The Cardinals don't have a significantly lower payroll-their payroll is only 7 million dollars less than ours this year, and that uses Nevin's salary for the Cubs. You are right though, they have made some pretty good moves. Which players though do you think their GM has gotten that have pushed them upward? Players who are at a much better value then the Cubs players? In retrospect, the Cards' model has been to target a handful proven All Star caliber players in trades at opportune times, sign them to long term deals, then get SMART, decent D veteran ballplayers to fill the rest of the everyday lineup. They aren't afraid to go get a guy like Rolen at any time of the year even though they already have a hitter like Pujols at 3B - i.e., get the best players possible when the opportunity arises. Our GM and financial folks don't bother to make an easily similar deal simply because the team isn't in the race, showing no vision for future years. They turn a pitcher coming off a career year like Bottenfield into an All Star everyday player, while we sit on Jon Lieber until he gets hurt. They don't necessarily get high OBP guys, they get ballplayers who execute at the right time. They get ground ball pitchers who know that the easiest way out of jam is to throw offspeed oitches down and away to aggressive hitters to get the DP. Our guys work their asses off to make a perfect, nasty pitch on an 0-0 or 0-1 count, only to lose the AB on an 0-2 pitch. They fill out their bullpen later in the offseason, while we spend huge amounts to fill out this volatile, hard to project part of the team first, then get good results simply through matchups and having a healthy starting staff throwing a decent amount of innings.

Furcal's OBP isn't that much better than Cedeno's. I just hate Cedeno's inability to see pitches at certain points. I think Furcal is a better player at this stage, hopefully Cedeno improves his patience. I really don't see it. Reaching base one more per 60+ PAs is trivial. To me, Ronny already has the ability to hit a lot of line drives to all fields, which can't be learned. I liken him to Ryno prior to 1984, with the body frame to add quite a bit more power on top of the almost inevitable ability to draw more walks as his career progresses. He's also a very good baserunner.

I think an even better comparison might be Furcal vs Todd Walker. It was widely speculated that Hendry was going to add Pierre whether or not he signed Furcal. Ronny would likely have ended up at 2B with Walker being the odd man out. Exactly, although the bigger point about either having no overall plan heading into the offseason, or at least one that was profoundly offbase is really highlighted here. All that Furcal earmarked $$ not going to Brian Giles, and thus changing the organizational approach, is the real telltale issue that must be reversed in future FA markets. I still think we really dodged a bullet IRT Cedeno, who I see as our starting SS for the next decade, with GG ability and plenty of untapped offensive potential.

If he's fired now though, perhaps guys like Murton would get to play every day instead of being platooned with a Freddie Bynum. Baker can do more damage to this team, even when they're losing. Exactly. I wish I could find the date of the Clines qoute about Murton needing to be more aggressive and compare his pitches seen/PA. I bet there would almost be a direct corelation to that date and Muton's OBP slide. How is Murton supposed to get better at hitting right handed pitchers if he never sess them? Again, it's one thing to platoon a vet in the twilight of his career who is used to this type of thing, and quite another to a young player who is used to playing every day. Anyone want to look up Murton's # vs. righties in the minors? Murton is killing us, having a worse run than Corey Patterson ever did. A .367 OPS in June - horrendous made worse by his penchant for GIDPs. Bynum, of course isn't the ultimate answer, but right now Murton doesn't look like he's worth defending either. Oh, and BTW his pitches/PA is higher this year than last when he hung up a .900+ OPS. It might be somewhat valid to pin some of this on Clines, but it doesn't seem to be the biggest reason for his problems.

There seems to be multiple separate issues discussed here, with a partial overlap. As for the issue of Wrigley Field being at least aprt of the problem, I think it definitely contributes - but only because of the issue about poor decision making. To me, the inconsistency of how the park plays on a daily basis makes it very difficult to build a consistent team. If they assemble a team that on papaer looks to have plenty of power, those very teams tend to struggle on cold days and on the road. When they try to emphasize speed and D and pitching, those teams get clubbed to death on warm days such as this past weekend. The approach that is rarely undertaken is to assemble a team of just plain good ballplayers - guys that hit can hit the ball hard in any conditions who can also play D, run the bases well and catch the ball and let the power come as it will. Which gets to the other issue - the way that the money is spent. While a $90-100M budget seems adequate, it is the goofy method of first establishing a budget to which the GM must adhere, instead of starting with a sound strategy (especially when that GM eats of a lot of the available $ to first resign very questionable role players) that results in perpetually losing out on the top notch FAs and settling on second tier players that better fit the budget as the roster gets filled out. The paradigm should be to target All Star talent at as many positions as possible, based on an overall team makeup standard (high OPS, good D, smart, high inning starters, etc.), and then spend what it takes to get it done. And, don't let the current position in the standings dictate what moves you make for future years. In what at the time was the most insane reasoning I've heard a GM use (and has since served as a marker of his lousy approach overall), Hendry declined to pursue a trade for Rolen when he was known to be long-hanging fruit in 2002, based solely on the reasoning that the Cubs were not in contention at the time, despite knowing full well Rolen wanted to come to the Midwest and sign a long-term deal. This same mindset prevents us from even trying to get a long-term answer such as Miguel Cabrera now, as we'll sit by and watch him go to a smart GM like Schuerholz, Epstein, or Jocketty.

I actually equate this to the "play Murton vs. platton with Bynum" issue, only I think this is 10 times worse. Starting pitchers have a much more direct affect than an OF, and I personally think Guzman has more upside than even Murton, although the last point is arguable. Their is zero upside to starting Rusch on any level. Sure, we'll never know about this game's outcome (who care at this point??), but under no circumstances should Rusch be starting games with the young talented SPs we have waiting for their auditions.

I agree with the general sentiment here that playing Freddie Bynum against right handed pitchers is absolutely inexcusable. He has absolutely zero chance of ever being even a replacement level corner outfielder. That said, characterizing Murton as one of our "better players" is ludicrous. His OPS against RHP is under .600. That's laughably bad. Now, because this team isn't going anywhere, the Cubs should be using the rest of this season to confirm that Murton can't hit RHP. And if posts a sub-.600 OPS over the course of 500 PA against RHP, the Cubs would be perfectly justified in deciding that they need to go in another direction in LF for 2007. Exactly, although I'd still like to see them go get an impact corner OF for now and the future and let Murton platoon with Jones for as long as Jones is here. If not, definitely Murton needs all the PT.

I'd suggest that if they stick Murton in THIS platoon it would mean that they're on the same path as others they have given up on. I would still opine that if they had gotten or get a high OPS corner OF a platoon or Murton with Jones would be optimal for the team AND Murton's more gradual and solid progression.

No more telling statement about the state of the 2006 Cubs, and the watchability thereof, has ever been written.

Yes, I'd go along with the tired observation part. Can we just place the bold sentence in the body of a 10 Commandments of NSBB that Bruce Miles can point to as the essence of what we'd collectively change if we had the power??

I'm with you all the way on these points, with the key being that bolded without which nothing else really matters. Yes, at this point we might as well just let Murton get all the PT, and to platoon w/Bynum is ludicrous as they BOTH suck against RHPs, but I still think a general platoon w/Jones and occasional starts against RHPs w/control problems would be a better developmental ploy for a year or two. As stated, it all hinges(d) on having a real high-OPS LF - a point that is moot now and/or would never get done to our long term benefit.

Not only this, but the horrendous numbers he has with runners on vs. the somewhat acceptable numbers w/bases empty and/or leading off an inning would also argue for him to hit leadoff, if he's in the lineup. Especially against LHPs.

Thanks for the post - Having an oversensitive innate sense of justice, I knew I had a long-forgotten cause of that feeling of wanting to absolutely scream when I saw Neifi these past 2 nights. This is EXACTLY the same feeling dredged up from those Little League days. What's funny is that by the time Pony League came around, the coaches were able to discern who should actually be getting PT, now we're seeing it played out at the (supposed) ML level.

Based on what we saw last year, his arm seemed to benefit from not starting. He went every other day for a couple of weeks and was scorching, hitting 98-100 on the gun repeatedly and was virtually unhittable even with existing shoulder problems. He went back-to-back once with less stellar results, but I would advocate building him up slowly, such as being a regular first replacement for Maddux (the contrast would be amazing) and Marshall very turn through the rotation until he can go back-to-back. Yes, if we could guarantee the 2002-2003 Wood from here, I would be happy to stay with that. If he has to pitch differently, I'm not so sure.

Not true at all? All or nothing? (Sir Francis notwithstanding). I agree with most of what you say, and said so in my first post in this thread. There's no question these Cubs have been bad in many ways this year that are easily illustrated by metrics. But, baseball is also replete with randomness - pitch by pitch, game by game. Just why do you think that wins are "useless" for measuring a pitcher's performance?

Based on the results he achieved in the role and the way he was throwing last year, I was all for him being converted this year before the season even started. The continual setbacks he's having now only confirm it for me. His results, as posted earlier, last year were astounding. He went one stretch where he gave up a lone single to Pujols over an 8 inning stretch (7 games) with 14 Ks. The concern voiced earlier about 1st inning woes I think are a result of pacing that isn't a factor when he's in to blow through an inning. In the RP role last year, he went to 2 pitches and set out to challenge hitters from pitch 1. And, this was more effective due to the health of his arm, as witnessed by the drastically improved stuff he had. He went from low 90s fastballs back to the 100 MPH stuff he had as a rookie. He'd get ahead in the count then slam the door with a nasty breaking ball. Assuming Prior is about to return, I would love to see them convert him to the pen. It seems the only way he can have a chance at a healthy and productive career at this point, and he could very well turn into a mega-dominant closer. I thyink he has the absolute perfect mindset for the role, and could be a factor on a daily basis. Let the contract issues and the roles with Dempster work themselves out.

Randomness in baseball or life in general is very small. There is always a small bit of chance it won't happen, but pitchers who walk batters consistently have high ERAs and airplanes don't fall out of the sky for no reason at all. Numbers show patterns and trends. To base baseball decision on hunches, feels, and guts is not the way to win. As with most things, there is truth on both sides of this issue. High OBP is always good, but it's better if most of the time it's in the context of a team rally, which is of itself random. Get more high-OBP guys on the same team, there is less randomness. Quality starts usually correlate closely with wins, but it's the randomness of when you throw them that makes a huge difference in W-L results. Compare Zambrano or Sean Marshall with Jason Marquis.

This is the stance I most closely align with on the Murton issue. I pull as much for young guys to succeed as anyone, but to this point Murton is not helping against RHPs and would be optimally used in a platoon w/Jones. Unfortunately, we don't have a legit LF to plug in yet, so in the meantime I also agree that I'd rather Murton "learn" against RHPs in the 8 hole than have Bynum out there. I just hope he doesn't learn bad habits while struggling and maybe does figure something out. As for Cedeno, I sort of disagree. I liken his hitting ability to a young Sandberg and think some stance adjustments and learning to pull the ball will lead to good pop eventually. He has the instainctive ability to hit line drives to all fields already, and he has the body frame to get stronger. He already works the count pretty well, but often gets too aggressive with those 3-2 pitches. As for his D, his range and athletic ability are again unteachable tools he already has, along with a strong arm. He could be GG caliber very soon with repetition of the basics.

I think I'd much rather see Cuban come in and install a different organizational philosophy than spend more money. The money was more than enough to get the job done but the team was constructed with faulty premises. I agree with the latter as it's proven over the decades to be the only true way to long-term winning, although having a somewhat unfettered budget to contend year to year in the meantime would also be appreciated. However, just setting some arbitrary dollar amount to spend to in advance is what fenced in Hendry, no matter the amount. That what causes getting a bunch of mid-income "once were" or role player types to fill out the roster and never willing to chase the real talent. The philosophy should always be to get the guys that make sense from a baseball perspective and let the amount spent fall where it may.

Exactly the point I drew. Much more of a real hint than the Mariotti-driven "suggestions". Maybe the two can intersect.

I got to tell you, all of this on top of the frustrations of being a lifelong Cub fan seeing the promise of the early 2000s continue to get more distant with each ever-more-lame season has me about 1 millimeter from abandoning baseball altogether. And looking around at all of MLB, there can't be more than a couple of teams whose fans could be enjoying the 2006 season much at all. The only way I salvage my interest this year in any way is if Hendry gets off his dead rear and gets Miguel Cabrera (my vote for the game's best pure hitter) for something to watch for the next decade. Of course, since the Cubs aren't "in contention" he won't even lift a finger in that direction.

Oops. I see it that way a lot on here, now I know.